A Time to be Circumcised
Posted: Wed May 22, 2013 11:01 am
While my wife is reading a book about a dog helping to solve a murder, I'll enjoy some Numerish by Cockroft or Zola, my two favorite Numerish guys.
And while I think it is so stupid for a dog to help in solving a murder, my wife thinks it just as stupid that I will be enlightened by a group of numbers that indicate what a baseball player might do on the field.
Damn, when put that way she might have a point.
We all use Numerish differently. For me, it is mostly entertainment value. For Shandlerites, gospel.
All others lie in between.
Numerish is like the Baseball Encyclopedia in a way. We can see a favorite player like Vada Pinson or Rico Carty and know in our minds that they were a lot more valuable to their teams and baseball than the mere numbers portray in books.
For the last few years, the Numerish pile on guys like Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds.
The Numerish are like Brian Urlacher ( a football RIP for Brian) in that like Urlacher, the Numerish like contact. They find swings and misses, abhorrent. And like the Baseball Encyclopedia, they are right on the mark with some players.
For instance, to me, BJ Upton makes me wrinkle my nose more than Dunn and Reynolds combined. Dunn and Reynolds are SUPPOSED to swing and miss. They are free swingers. And THAT is what free swingers do.
Upton can be called a free swinger, but he's not. He's simply a batter who misses a lot of balls.
Here is some of my Numerish on Upton.
He has had 80 'action' at bats with two strikes this year. Which is to say, his at bat was determined on those pitches.
In six of those at bats, he got a hit. An unfathomable .075 average.
Two of those hits were two of his three homers on the year.
55 ended in strike out.
19 ended in batted outs.
First, this means if you're watching BJ Upton with a friend, and Upton reaches two strikes, give him 10-1 odds that he won't get a hit and bet him even-steven that he'll strike out. Like the house, you'll come out way ahead.
Second, what scares me about those stats is that Upton has two of his three homers with two strikes. An indicator that he changes his approach little with two strikes.
He should.
Dunn, Reynolds, and Upton along with others like Dan Uggla are what I call 'tankers'. Tankers are taken for their known skill, while knowing we're tanking our batting average.....
Wait...
Damn, see what happens? I got caught up in the Numerish so much that I forgot the direction of this post.
Lets see, dog solving murders....Shandler and Shandlerites....Zola and Cockroft....
Oh yeah!
So in reading this stuff, good stuff by Zola and Cockroft, I try not to take it too seriously.
Why?
Because when we're watching a game, we're not thinking about Numerish. We are thinking about the task at hand. It starts with making out lineups each week. We want the best matchups for our pitchers and hitters. All the BABIP or other tendencies won't help at all in knowing that our lineup has to field Yuni Betancourt or John Buck, two players who are already past their seasonal prime against Verlander, Scherzer, and Sanchez.
It's not luck. It's circumstances. Next week, Buck and Betancourt will be hitting against Pelfrey, Correia, and Worley and that looks better. Or even better than that, we find somebody better than Buck and Betancourt on a FAAB dumpster dive.
Yes, in season, Numerish helps little. Buster Posey can hit three doubles. The Numerish can say that he SHOULD hit three doubles.
And they're right.
But circumstances dictate the box score. If Posey was the only hitter figuring out Zach Greinke on his three double day, his box score would look like this......4-0-3-0
But, if Greinke was just off and everybody was getting to him and his relievers, Posey's box score could read a more fantasy appetizing 4-2-3-4
The Numerish can't help us in having our pitchers face MIA and HOU at home for a two start week. Circumstances dictate that. And we'll cuss circumstances when we have such a matchup for a pitcher, only to see a rain out ruin everything and his cushy two start week changes to a most difficult @TEX and @NYY.
It may seem like luck.
It's not.
It's not, because it happens to all of us and we're going to deal with it differently. Some of us are going to throw our pitcher with those bad matchups anyway. Some will bench them. And others start all two start pitchers, no matter the matchup.
I started Travis Snider on all teams this week. I did it because he has been hitting better lately and he faces three righties and a Cubs staff that is not the best in the world.
And he doesn't start. I was not happy.
Then, he pinch hits with the bases loaded and hits a ball that barely cleared the wall.
Here I was thinking that Snider would start all three games. Instead, he pinch hits in a great circumstance and comes through. I had no inkling, but circumstances rewarded me.
The Numerish do not talk about a ground ball that scores a runner.
Or a pitcher who gives up four rockets that are all turned to dp's.
Or a judy who hits into a fielders choice, then steals second and third and scores.
There is no control over how many times these events will happen or if happening to the same players.
During the season, we want our Closer's team to be leading by three runs going into the ninth.
If four, he not only does not get credit for a Save, but may be disinterested and disinigrate our E.R.A. and W.H.I.P.
We want runners to be on first and second when our number one choice, Miguel Cabrera comes to the plate.
Knowing, if it's second and third, they'll intentionally walk him.
Circumstances can be man-made.
Terry Collins is a whiz at putting batters in spots in the lineup where they're most likely to fail.
Ned Yost thinks of Chris Getz as an everyday player.
He also thinks Jeff Francoeur should be played.
I ask you, if Francoeur were DFA'd, would you want your favorite team to sign him?
I didn't think so.
Man-made circumstances are not limited to Managers.
Marco Scutaro can do the 'team thing' and roll a ball to the right side to move along a teammate and get thrown out.
He gets high fives from teammates. A middle finger salute from his owners.
Worse than this is an rbi guy who decides to lay down a bunt with runners on.
While announcers are praising him for doing the unexpected, we're cursing him for not doing what we drafted him to do.
There's nothing we can do about it. It's circumstances.
And we've been circumcised.
And while I think it is so stupid for a dog to help in solving a murder, my wife thinks it just as stupid that I will be enlightened by a group of numbers that indicate what a baseball player might do on the field.
Damn, when put that way she might have a point.
We all use Numerish differently. For me, it is mostly entertainment value. For Shandlerites, gospel.
All others lie in between.
Numerish is like the Baseball Encyclopedia in a way. We can see a favorite player like Vada Pinson or Rico Carty and know in our minds that they were a lot more valuable to their teams and baseball than the mere numbers portray in books.
For the last few years, the Numerish pile on guys like Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds.
The Numerish are like Brian Urlacher ( a football RIP for Brian) in that like Urlacher, the Numerish like contact. They find swings and misses, abhorrent. And like the Baseball Encyclopedia, they are right on the mark with some players.
For instance, to me, BJ Upton makes me wrinkle my nose more than Dunn and Reynolds combined. Dunn and Reynolds are SUPPOSED to swing and miss. They are free swingers. And THAT is what free swingers do.
Upton can be called a free swinger, but he's not. He's simply a batter who misses a lot of balls.
Here is some of my Numerish on Upton.
He has had 80 'action' at bats with two strikes this year. Which is to say, his at bat was determined on those pitches.
In six of those at bats, he got a hit. An unfathomable .075 average.
Two of those hits were two of his three homers on the year.
55 ended in strike out.
19 ended in batted outs.
First, this means if you're watching BJ Upton with a friend, and Upton reaches two strikes, give him 10-1 odds that he won't get a hit and bet him even-steven that he'll strike out. Like the house, you'll come out way ahead.
Second, what scares me about those stats is that Upton has two of his three homers with two strikes. An indicator that he changes his approach little with two strikes.
He should.
Dunn, Reynolds, and Upton along with others like Dan Uggla are what I call 'tankers'. Tankers are taken for their known skill, while knowing we're tanking our batting average.....
Wait...
Damn, see what happens? I got caught up in the Numerish so much that I forgot the direction of this post.
Lets see, dog solving murders....Shandler and Shandlerites....Zola and Cockroft....
Oh yeah!
So in reading this stuff, good stuff by Zola and Cockroft, I try not to take it too seriously.
Why?
Because when we're watching a game, we're not thinking about Numerish. We are thinking about the task at hand. It starts with making out lineups each week. We want the best matchups for our pitchers and hitters. All the BABIP or other tendencies won't help at all in knowing that our lineup has to field Yuni Betancourt or John Buck, two players who are already past their seasonal prime against Verlander, Scherzer, and Sanchez.
It's not luck. It's circumstances. Next week, Buck and Betancourt will be hitting against Pelfrey, Correia, and Worley and that looks better. Or even better than that, we find somebody better than Buck and Betancourt on a FAAB dumpster dive.
Yes, in season, Numerish helps little. Buster Posey can hit three doubles. The Numerish can say that he SHOULD hit three doubles.
And they're right.
But circumstances dictate the box score. If Posey was the only hitter figuring out Zach Greinke on his three double day, his box score would look like this......4-0-3-0
But, if Greinke was just off and everybody was getting to him and his relievers, Posey's box score could read a more fantasy appetizing 4-2-3-4
The Numerish can't help us in having our pitchers face MIA and HOU at home for a two start week. Circumstances dictate that. And we'll cuss circumstances when we have such a matchup for a pitcher, only to see a rain out ruin everything and his cushy two start week changes to a most difficult @TEX and @NYY.
It may seem like luck.
It's not.
It's not, because it happens to all of us and we're going to deal with it differently. Some of us are going to throw our pitcher with those bad matchups anyway. Some will bench them. And others start all two start pitchers, no matter the matchup.
I started Travis Snider on all teams this week. I did it because he has been hitting better lately and he faces three righties and a Cubs staff that is not the best in the world.
And he doesn't start. I was not happy.
Then, he pinch hits with the bases loaded and hits a ball that barely cleared the wall.
Here I was thinking that Snider would start all three games. Instead, he pinch hits in a great circumstance and comes through. I had no inkling, but circumstances rewarded me.
The Numerish do not talk about a ground ball that scores a runner.
Or a pitcher who gives up four rockets that are all turned to dp's.
Or a judy who hits into a fielders choice, then steals second and third and scores.
There is no control over how many times these events will happen or if happening to the same players.
During the season, we want our Closer's team to be leading by three runs going into the ninth.
If four, he not only does not get credit for a Save, but may be disinterested and disinigrate our E.R.A. and W.H.I.P.
We want runners to be on first and second when our number one choice, Miguel Cabrera comes to the plate.
Knowing, if it's second and third, they'll intentionally walk him.
Circumstances can be man-made.
Terry Collins is a whiz at putting batters in spots in the lineup where they're most likely to fail.
Ned Yost thinks of Chris Getz as an everyday player.
He also thinks Jeff Francoeur should be played.
I ask you, if Francoeur were DFA'd, would you want your favorite team to sign him?
I didn't think so.
Man-made circumstances are not limited to Managers.
Marco Scutaro can do the 'team thing' and roll a ball to the right side to move along a teammate and get thrown out.
He gets high fives from teammates. A middle finger salute from his owners.
Worse than this is an rbi guy who decides to lay down a bunt with runners on.
While announcers are praising him for doing the unexpected, we're cursing him for not doing what we drafted him to do.
There's nothing we can do about it. It's circumstances.
And we've been circumcised.