Rat's Ass!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Sometimes we let a good story get in the way of the meaning taken out of that story.
In baseball, it is the story of bb/k. It was intimated that Albert Pujols was a superior player over Miguel Cabrera because King Albert strikes out less.
May I be the first to say, 'RAT'S ASS!' ?
These numbers may look good when comparing numbers or even writing a story about a players qualities in taking balls or making contact, but for fantasy baseball's sake, RAT'S ASS!

Let's take a circumstance. Miguel Cabrera is up with runners on first and third, two out with a lefty throwing. Chances are, that he'll be pitched around and walked.
This leaves his owners rooting for Fielder to have an extra base hit, so that we could at least get a run out of the whole deal.
Same circumstances with a right hander now:
Cabrera strikes out.
Sure, we're pissed he didn't come through as he has so many more times. BUT, I would rather have a strike out than a walk any day.
What is lost?
A 1/10000 off my batting average? I'll make that up.
Was there anything gained by Cabrera grounding out or flying out?
No.
But, we did get the chance to improve up to four categories with one swing of the bat.
Something a walk does not do.
A walk is a rat's ass, signifying nothing.

Like said, fantasy baseball is not real baseball.
A walk is not as good as a hit.
A walk is a missed opportunity.
The realization that our hitter has to wait through eight more hitters to have even the chance to help us in categories.
The walk is the most overrated fantasy baseball statistic in history. Using it in conjunction with how many times a hitter strikes out only makes things worse.
Walks and strike outs have the same result for fantasy owners.
A wasted at bat.

Some consider Joe DiMaggio as the greatest hitter of all time. Some seasons, he would have more homers than strike outs.
Joe, was an elegant man.
He felt it embarrassing to strike out.
Some consider Ted Williams as the greatest hitter of all time. Williams didn't mind striking out.
Unfortunately, he didn't mind walking as well.
The above mentioned poster would have loved DiMaggio's freakish strike out rate.
And probably would have voted for DiMaggio as being 'better' than Williams.
But despite all the walks that Williams accumulated during his career, Williams was still the better fantasy player.
Strike out rate is just as meaningless as walk rate.
If we have a player like Polanco or Pierre not striking out on our roster, we're no better for it!
After Polanco rolls a ball to the right side with a runner on second base, he receives back slaps and hand shakes from teammates, you know what he gets from his owners?
RAT'S ASS!

Sure, there'll be a few times each year where a ground out or fly ball is more productive than a strike out. But that 'good eye' and 'he works a walk' is more for real baseball. It takes more pitches to get these hitters out, so he is an asset to his real team.
Fantasy writers don't get this. Because Miguel Cabrera or Joey Votto or Adam Dunn draws more walks than others, does not make them better fantasy players than their counterparts.
The swing is what makes them who they are.
Not the take.
During the off season, I'll read hundreds of bits and pieces about how much a player walks or doesn't walk.
I'll RAT'S ASS it.
Adam Jones is hardly walking this year. Jones is an aggressive hitter and he hits in front of Chris Davis. Those two factors weigh heavily into his suppressed walk count.
Jones is still the same quality hitter.
Instead of the 34 walks he got last year, he'll get 24 this year. I don't think any less of him, yet it's a guarantee that some knucklehead will write that he's worried about Jones lack of walks.
RAT'S ASS!

When looking at the top 20 of hitters drawing base on balls this year, three names jump out at me.
Choo, Trout, and Kipnis.
They can utilize these walks to help us in a category that a lug like Miguel Cabrera or Joey Votto or Adam Dunn cannot help us in, the stolen base.
We want our fast guys to walk. Wait, I take that back.
We don't mind a walk to a fast guy as much as we do to one of our power hitting lugs.
There, that's better.
Choo, Trout, and Kipnis can help us with a walk. They help us more with a hit, but we'll take a walk calmly and without a rat's ass sentiment.
Cabrera, Votto, and Dunn?
Not so much.

The other day when a Reds broadcaster reveled in Joey Votto hitting a homer on the ninth pitch of an at bat, I smiled.
I'd rather have Adam Jones hitting a first pitch for a homer than have Votto giving every pitcher in creation a CHANCE to walk him.
Because that is what Votto does. He invites walks. He seems to relish them.
He considers it a job well done.
As does his team, his broadcasters, and some fantasy writers.
In the mean time, there is a Joey Votto owner somewhere with a Charley Brown squiggle over his head watching Votto trotting down to first base, thinking, ' RAT'S ASS! '

[knuckleheads]

It was intimated that Albert Pujols was a superior player over Miguel Cabrera because King Albert strikes out less.
May I be the first to say, 'RAT'S ASS!' ?

Miggy is 30. Through the same age, Pujols played 47 fewer games and had 147 fewer plate appearances. Pujols struck out 525 fewer times than Cabrera and walked 145 more times. Given a reasonable BABIP of .325 on those extra 525 balls put in play (plus 145 walks) puts Pujols on base 315 extra times in 10 those years than Cabrera. That clearly contributed to Pujols' 152 more runs scored (fantasy category) than Cabrera.

As I haven't seen too many Runs Batted In on strikeouts, I think Pujols lower strikeout rate has also resulted in Pujols' thin (+12 in 147 fewer plate appearances) RBI lead. And HR lead. And SB lead. And batting average lead.

In fact, Pujols lead Cabrera in every offensive category through the same age:

Pujols - Cabrera
Avg. - .331 - .321
2B - 426 - 406
3B - 15 - 14
HR - 408 - 351
Runs - 1186 - 1034
RBI - 1230 - 1218
BB - 914- 769
SB - 75 - 36
SO - 646 - 1171
OBP. - .426 - .399
Slg. - .624 - .568

So really Dan, if Cabrera could have cut his strikeouts in half and walked 20% more often, he probably would have been as good as Pujols through age 30, in reality or fantasy. As it stands, Cabrera falls undeniably short in both arenas.

[DOUGHBOYS]

If Cabrera had less strike outs and more walks.....he wouldn't be Cabrera.
I want Cabrera to be Cabrera!
If Adam Dunn or Joey Votto swung at more first strikes, they wouldn't strike out or walk as much. But, I don't want that.
I'm not asking for any of the players to change. They are who they are.
What should change is OUR mentality.
Not baseball mentality, fantasy mentality.
I rat's ass players like Pujols and Cabrera k/bb rates. They're different hitters, like DiMaggio and Williams. They shouldn't be treated differently because of k/bb. Sure, Pujols helped his team more with a better k/bb rate. Still, his fantasy owners would have maybe benefitted from a few more swings, right?
Now that Pujols is not the player he once was, I don't care if his k/bb rate has changed. I know that HE has changed. Pujols is not the first player taken in drafts any more. He moves like my Aunt Ruth.
Cabrera hasn't. He's still Cabrera and still is the player taken first in drafts.

If wanting to compare Cabrera and Pujols over the same period over their careers, then I'll probably say that Pujols was the better player. Not because of anything to do with k/bb, but because of counting numbers and average.
I'll write a post tomorrow about some stupid statistics writers are using during the break to bolster an argument over the usage of player(s) in the second half.
At one time, I could not get enough of these numbers. Last year, I had a re-thinking of these numbers. I've determined that most of these numbers mean little. Chief among them, bb/k.

Chris Davis. His strike out rate is virtually the same as last year. He's going to walk a lot more.
I'm guessing I'll read more than once that walks and more patience were the key to Davis being better this year.
Blah blah blah.
Forgetting of course, that Davis is a more feared hitter this year and is a hitter to be avoided. Davis hasn't changed his k/bb rate at all.
Pitchers have changed it, in how to approach the danger that is Chris Davis this year.
Numbers are said to tell the whole story, they don't.
And having more categories or rates does not tell a more complete story.
.