Rosie O'Donnell and the 'Elephant Man'

[DOUGHBOYS]

The Numerish are far sighted. Each number, each rate, each new category that the Numerish come up with is designed to tell us what a player will do in the future. Their far sightedness gets them in trouble. It got Shandler in trouble when forecasting that Mike Trout would regress and took credit for that prediction mere weeks after the season had begun. His far sightedness had concluded that the first few weeks would continue for the rest of the season.
It didn't.

The Numerish are different than us. They don't believe their eyes. They believe their numbers. Players like Trout fool them.
When a player comes out of nowhere and puts up daily boffo fantasy numbers, it is wrong in their far sighted eyes.
Nobody can do that!
And when a player like Trout does, the knee jerk reaction is to place bets that he can't do it again.
They'll use BABIP.
They'll use K/BB.
They'll use FB/HR.

There may have been a sigh of relief from the Numerish when Yasiel Puig came along. Now, the Numerish had confirmation that a year after Trout, it was possible for another player to come out of nowhere and dominate baseball.
Puig has forced the Numerish to be fitted with glasses.
Forcing them to see that, yes, players like Trout, Puig, Machado, Harper, and Harvey can be instant classics.


Some Numerish are still far sighted and in need of glasses. Here are a few examples of some of the 'updates' from these still far sighted Numerish......

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'Braves third baseman Chris Johnson had a strong finish to the 2012 season and has parlayed that momentum into a strong first half in 2013. Still, Fantasy owners should remain skeptical of the 28-year-old third baseman heading into the second half. The formula for Johnson to have a strong finish is no doubt there. The Braves will be contending, giving Johnson plenty of lineup protection and RBI chances. I'm just a little worried the hits could stop falling for Johnson in the second half.
He finished the first half with a .415 BABIP. I'm aware Johnson is a good line-drive and ground-ball hitter, but that's even high for him. His career BABIP is .360, and he hit just .281 in 2012 while producing a .354 BABIP.I'm not opposed to keeping Johnson on Fantasy rosters. It's just that Fantasy owners shouldn't be shocked if he regresses closer to the norms in the second half. '
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Pardon me for saying this, but this is a stupid write-up. Chris Johnson has no business hitting .330. Everybody already knows that. We don't need BABIP to tell us that. I own Johnson on a lot of teams. I didn't draft Johnson to hit .330. I drafted Johnson thinking he may hit around .280 and may increase past power numbers. He hasn't shown much power at all. He only has six homers and 31 rbi.
To me, even with the batting average, Johnson has been disappointing and seen times on my bench. This writer focuses solely on batting average, which is a 'DUH!'
If saying that Johnson will 'regress' by hitting for less average and more power, sign me up!
That's why I drafted him.
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'LaRoche is usually a strong second-half performer. His career slash line in the second half is .293/.533/.886, and he hasn't tailed off in recent years. Over the last four seasons, LaRoche is averaging 14 home runs, 16 doubles and 45 RBI in the second half.

The Nationals should be making a playoff push after the All-Star break, and LaRoche should get plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Since his ownership is at 75 percent, some Fantasy owners won't even have to trade for a player that has a proven track record of thriving down the stretch.'
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This writer uses the words, 'usually' and 'should' twice. When a writer uses the words 'usually' and 'should', it's an indication they are using past performance to predict future play.
In this case, LaRoche has better second half numbers in the past so expect them this year.
Well, at least it 'usually' happens and it 'should' occur.

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' It would be a massive understatement to say B.J. Upton's first half was a disaster. With a .177 average, eight home runs, seven steals and just 23 runs scored, the Braves' outfielder is struggling through the worst season of his career. His Saturday placement on the DL was the cherry on top.
But there is some hope. Upton's BABIP (currently .240 vs. a career .317) is due to improve. While his groundball rate is up, his HR/FB rate is right at career levels, so if he can start hitting fly balls with more frequency, he could get the power numbers back up (Upton was third in MLB with 21 second-half home runs last year). And there's still the hope that he simply gets hot, as he has shown streaky tendencies in the past.
The question is where to place Upton, value-wise. He's owned in 60 percent of leagues and started in just 17 percent. I think he's still worth a gamble -- in the last two seasons, Upton has averaged a 10.5 home run difference between his pre-and-post-All-Star Game totals. He showed signs of life in June. And this DL stint may be a nice mental break for him, as well. Upton is probably safe to leave on the wire in 12-team Head-to-Head formats, but his power/speed potential should at least earn him a bench spot in 12-team Roto leagues and deeper. '
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This one is my favorite.
It is like the same blurbs that hit the All Star break when Adam Dunn collapsed under Ozzie Guillen's tyranny.
This writer shows BABIP and HR/FB rate along with just plain begging for an Upton 'mental break' and 'hot streak' to turn things around in the second half.
Using BABIP for a batter like Upton is a bit misleading. Upton strikes out. He strikes out a lot. To infer that his BABIP is a little unfair is like saying that Rosie O'Donnell and the 'Elephant Man' would make a nice couple if they would just get a manicure.
This is far sightedness at its best. He is trying to forget that Upton has been possibly the worst full time player in baseball over the first half of the season and used Numerish to ' at least earn him a bench spot in 12-team Roto leagues and deeper'
In a nutshell, he could have just said, 'Pick up Upton, he can't be this bad!'
But, he is.