NFBC Message Boards

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 10:26 am**

BJ Upton is 15 for 150 with two strikes on him.
Yes, he is batting .100 with two strikes.
He has struck out 102 times.
or...
150 at bats with two strikes
102 strike outs
38 fair balls
10 hits

Contrasting.....
This hitter is 32 for 185 with two strikes on him.
He is batting .173 with two strikes
He has struck out 105 times.
or....
185 at bats
105 strike outs
48 fair balls
32 hits

You may have thought I cherry-picked a player with far more capabilities than Upton to illustrate just how bad Upton has been this year
No need.
The other player is Colby Rasmus

I love Kyle Seager. He doesn't point at the dugout after a hit. He doesn't flip his bat.
What he does do, is play baseball well.
Seager is currently on a 14 game hitting streak. Seager has a hit in every game in July and is hitting .458 over the month.
Before thinking this is just a hot streak, consider this.
Seager has already had three hit streaks of 10 games or more.
That, my friends, is consistency, not a hot streak.
Seager has had zero hits in just seven games since May 28. A span of 44 games.
Seager does not get much attention and that's fine with him.
While Longoria owners are praising the fantasy God's for keeping their boy healthy....
Consider this:
Longoria .278/54/18/52/1
Seager .293/54/15/44/3

Nate McLouth has no stolen bases in July.

Yasiel Puig has one homer and one stolen base in July.
And also 12 games, 16 strike outs.
Personally, I see more Cespedes in him than Trout.

Speaking of the devil, going into the home run hitting contest last night, Yoenis Cespedes had not hit a homer in July...and only had one rbi.
Was it just me, or was he taking his time and visually concentrating before taking each swing?
Something that is missing when playing 'real' games.

While we're playing with numbers, I'll make another attempt to show that bases on balls are not our friend.
Joey Votto goes in the first round of every fantasy draft. Shandler loves him. He's the Numerish candidate for President
Personally, I don't think he belongs in the first round of an NFBC draft.
Votto is a great baseball player. And, an above average fantasy player.
First round?
NO.
Votto SHOULD be one of the best fantasy players on the planet. He hits in a great hitter's park. He hits third in a lineup that is one of the best in baseball. Runners are on in front of him and he has protection in back.
So, what does he do wrong?
He walks.
He walks too much. Folks rave about his long at bats. Great theatre for baseball. Bad for fantasy.
How bad?
Well, lets take Mr. Perennial first rounder Joey Votto and use his stats against my boy, Kyle Seager.
You remember Seager.
Unassuming kid.
Plays in the Northwest, big ball park, usually hitting between Morales and Smoak.
Yeah, that guy.

Votto- .318/66/15/42/3
Seager .293/54/15/44/3

Why?
Seager, even though hitting fifth most of the year and not getting as many plate appearances as Votto, has more at bats than Votto
Votto's ABBB is 423
Seager's ABBB is 401
Yet Votto has 352 at bats. Seager 365.
In other words, Votto throws away a favorable environment in Cincinnati, evening the playing field with an admittedly lesser hitter in Seager by taking too many walks.
A wonderful thing in real baseball, a curse for his owners.
By the way, ABBB is a category that I use for my own personal use. It is just At bats plus BB.

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 11:53 am**

DOUGHBOYS wrote: Votto- .318/66/15/42/3
Seager .293/54/15/44/3

Why?
Seager, even though hitting fifth most of the year and not getting as many plate appearances as Votto, has more at bats than Votto
Votto's ABBB is 423
Seager's ABBB is 401
Yet Votto has 352 at bats. Seager 365.
In other words, Votto throws away a favorable environment in Cincinnati, evening the playing field with an admittedly lesser hitter in Seager by taking too many walks.
A wonderful thing in real baseball, a curse for his owners.
By the way, ABBB is a category that I use for my own personal use. It is just At bats plus BB.

Or does he press to much at home trying to take advantage of that favorable environment?

Home: Walk Rate 13.2%.... .282/27/6/18/ 0.812OPS
Road : Walk Rate 19.6%.... .354/39/9/24/ 1.061OPS

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 12:02 pm**

Navel Lint wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote: Votto- .318/66/15/42/3
Seager .293/54/15/44/3

Why?
Seager, even though hitting fifth most of the year and not getting as many plate appearances as Votto, has more at bats than Votto
Votto's ABBB is 423
Seager's ABBB is 401
Yet Votto has 352 at bats. Seager 365.
In other words, Votto throws away a favorable environment in Cincinnati, evening the playing field with an admittedly lesser hitter in Seager by taking too many walks.
A wonderful thing in real baseball, a curse for his owners.
By the way, ABBB is a category that I use for my own personal use. It is just At bats plus BB.

Or does he press to much at home trying to take advantage of that favorable environment?

Home: Walk Rate 13.2%.... .282/27/6/18/ 0.812OPS
Road : Walk Rate 19.6%.... .354/39/9/24/ 1.061OPS

Let's have it your way....
Like walks, OPS is a favorable baseball stat, not fantasy.
Even better, let's just double his road stats.
The 18/48 does not put him 10 rounds ahead of Seager.

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 1:06 pm**

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Navel Lint wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote: Votto- .318/66/15/42/3
Seager .293/54/15/44/3

Why?
Seager, even though hitting fifth most of the year and not getting as many plate appearances as Votto, has more at bats than Votto
Votto's ABBB is 423
Seager's ABBB is 401
Yet Votto has 352 at bats. Seager 365.
In other words, Votto throws away a favorable environment in Cincinnati, evening the playing field with an admittedly lesser hitter in Seager by taking too many walks.
A wonderful thing in real baseball, a curse for his owners.
By the way, ABBB is a category that I use for my own personal use. It is just At bats plus BB.

Or does he press to much at home trying to take advantage of that favorable environment?

Home: Walk Rate 13.2%.... .282/27/6/18/ 0.812OPS
Road : Walk Rate 19.6%.... .354/39/9/24/ 1.061OPS

Let's have it your way....
Like walks, OPS is a favorable baseball stat, not fantasy.
Even better, let's just double his road stats.
The 18/48 does not put him 10 rounds ahead of Seager.

You are right, Seager is not 10 rounds behind Votto. That's not really Votto's fault. Even if Votto was producing RD1 PK1 stats, Seager wouldn't be 10 rounds behind him.

However, if you really want to double Votto's road stats.....I'd take
.354/78/18/48/4 to Seager's
.293/54/15/44/3

Not trying to make the argument that Votto is or isn't a first rounder, right now he isn't. But he is somewhere in the top 30.

I just think the premise that Votto isn't producing more favorable fantasy stats because of his plate discipline (walks), especially considering his friendly home park as you are, is not backed up by the numbers.

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 1:47 pm**

'I just think the premise that Votto isn't producing more favorable fantasy stats because of his plate discipline (walks), especially considering his friendly home park as you are, is not backed up by the numbers.'

I've doubled his stats on the road. What else can I do?
Why would Votto be 'pressing' in his seventh year at his home stadium?
What are your reasons in Votto having subpar numbers?
Show me, uh, without using anything BB related.

We've been disagreeing on every subject seemingly, Russ
So I'm sure you'll disagree with this also......

Sometimes, as I stated in another post, it is hard to believe our eyes.
Joey Votto is a first rounder. This has been fact for years. Same way with Pujols. Pujols was a player I watched very intently last year. I didn't think he belonged near the top of the first round. But still, he had that adp leading right up to the Live Drafts.
At the Live Drafts, things changed. With a lot of money on the line, Pujols dropped in drafts. And rightfully so.
Pujols had been given an adp by $150 drafts. Folks that weren't putting as much thought or cash into their player bidding.
Pujols became more of a back of the first round pick instead of a top 7 pick.
I think the same thing will happen to Votto. It won't be as drastic in Votto's case, because Pujols looks real old before his time. Votto still looks to be in the peak of health.

It is the last day of the fantasy season, you own Joey Votto who is up in the ninth inning of a game with runners on first and third and one out.
At the same time, Adam Jones is up in the ninth inning of a game with runners on first and third and one out.
Each real team's circumstances are the same and the only category left to be decided in the Championship of your NFBC League is RBI. You own Votto, your competitor, Jones.
Quite simply, I would put my money on your competitor because of Votto's addiction to walks.
In the long run, his team may win. After all, a walk is as good as a hit in real baseball.
But in fantasy, I want Jones taking hacks for me.

Some will argue that Joey Votto is a lot better than Adam Jones. And I wouldn't argue back.
If comparing hitters for the sake of hitters, I'm betting that Votto stats look a lot more favorable than Jones.
Fantasy, is a different animal.
I'll take Jones in almost every situation and it is because he is a competent hitter who swings a lot.
I want that.

The premise isn't that Votto is not as good of a hitter because of plate discipline.
The premise is that Votto is not as good of FANTASY hitter because of plate discipline.

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 2:13 pm**

DOUGHBOYS wrote:'I just think the premise that Votto isn't producing more favorable fantasy stats because of his plate discipline (walks), especially considering his friendly home park as you are, is not backed up by the numbers.'

I've doubled his stats on the road. What else can I do?
Why would Votto be 'pressing' in his seventh year at his home stadium?
What are your reasons in Votto having subpar numbers?
Show me, uh, without using anything BB related.

I'm not sure if we are talking about two different things here or not

If I read what you wrote correctly, you are saying that Votto shouldn't be a first rounder and that he doesn't put up first rounds stats for no other reason than that he WALKS too much.

You say that he is not taking advantage of his home field.

That is your premise as I read it.

I am left to infer by this that if he walked less, he would put up better Fantasy Stats.

Me, being the dork I am, HAD to go look up his Home/Road splits to see what the numbers said.

His actually numbers say that he is more of a free swinger at home, ie lower walk rate, but that his Fantasy numbers (HR/RBI) are worse than they are on the road where he walks much more. Those stats appear to be opposite to your theory. I don't know why.

Saying that he "is pressing" at home was just a poor "lead-in" by me to present the stats in my initial response to your commentary.

You ask, "why are his numbers subpar?" I don't know.......In fact, I'm not even really sure that they are all that subpar

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 2:18 pm**

I should have completed 'sub par' with 'for a first rounder.'
Any time a first rounder's stats are comparable to Kyle Seager, they are not first round stats.
Therefore, sub par.
Now Kyle, don't get a big head while reading this thread
Just keep your head buried in your day to day production and go about your business as you have this year.

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 2:22 pm**

DOUGHBOYS wrote:.

We've been disagreeing on every subject seemingly, Russ
So I'm sure you'll disagree with this also......

NO NO

I just don't post when I agree with you

, which is 90% of the time

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 3:19 pm**

votto being or not being a first rounder has nothing to do with his stats being compared to anyone else- to the whole group- yes. one player- no. not sure those walks are good for real baseball either. in Chicago- the frank Thomas rule. dear frank- second and third and 1 out. bottom of ninth- down a run. 3-1 count and a 88 mph fastball an 1/8 of an inch off the outside corner- belt high. hit the f...g ball into right and get the 2 runs, or at worst 1 run- don't take your 150th walk. you are our best hitter- hit. or as the tigers say-- just do what miggy would do. votto takes way too many pitches in run producing situations.

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 4:10 pm**

I've had a few inquiries as to how I use ABBB.
ABBB is just at bats plus walks.
I'm not like most fantasy baseball guys. I think of walks as a minus, not a plus.
So, with some players I'll use it to get a 'true' fantasy average.
Remember, this is 'true' for me, if you agree with my thinking or logic, it could be true for you, if not, don't use it.

I use ABBB like this.
Adam Jones has 395 at bats plus 13 walks. 408 ABBB.
He has 117 hits.
So, his ABBB adjusted average is .287

Joey Votto has 352 at bats plus 71 walks. 423 ABBB
He has 112 hits
So, his ABBB adjusted average is .265

It works for me. If interested, I can write a post concerning ABBB.
The simplicity is there. It embraces the aggressive hitter. It penalizes the 'wait till I get the perfect pitch' hitters.
Walking in fantasy, unless using speed, is no more than wasted opportunity.
I do not include hbp because the batter does not choose to be hit with a pitch.
For me, it's a better FANTASY barometer than OBP or walk-ladened statistics.

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 4:26 pm**

DOUGHBOYS wrote:I've had a few inquiries as to how I use ABBB.
ABBB is just at bats plus walks.
I'm not like most fantasy baseball guys. I think of walks as a minus, not a plus.
So, with some players I'll use it to get a 'true' fantasy average.
Remember, this is 'true' for me, if you agree with my thinking or logic, it could be true for you, if not, don't use it.

I use ABBB like this.
Adam Jones has 395 at bats plus 13 walks. 408 ABBB.
He has 117 hits.
So, his ABBB adjusted average is .287

Joey Votto has 352 at bats plus 71 walks. 423 ABBB
He has 112 hits
So, his ABBB adjusted average is .265

It works for me. If interested, I can write a post concerning ABBB.
The simplicity is there. It embraces the aggressive hitter. It penalizes the 'wait till I get the perfect pitch' hitters.
Walking in fantasy, unless using speed, is no more than wasted opportunity.
I do not include hbp because the batter does not choose to be hit with a pitch.
For me, it's a better FANTASY barometer than OBP or walk-ladened statistics.

Numerish at its finest.

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 4:26 pm**

DOUGHBOYS wrote:I've had a few inquiries as to how I use ABBB.
ABBB is just at bats plus walks.
I'm not like most fantasy baseball guys. I think of walks as a minus, not a plus.
So, with some players I'll use it to get a 'true' fantasy average.
Remember, this is 'true' for me, if you agree with my thinking or logic, it could be true for you, if not, don't use it.

I use ABBB like this.
Adam Jones has 395 at bats plus 13 walks. 408 ABBB.
He has 117 hits.
So, his ABBB adjusted average is .287

Joey Votto has 352 at bats plus 71 walks. 423 ABBB
He has 112 hits
So, his ABBB adjusted average is .265

It works for me. If interested, I can write a post concerning ABBB.
The simplicity is there. It embraces the aggressive hitter.
And in my mind, is a better FANTASY barometer than OBP or other walk ladened statistics.

I looked at these exact numbers when you posed the Votto vs Jones one atbat, must get a hit, scenario. Using this years numbers only, I would take Jones, of course.

Over their entire career, Votto comes out ahead .271 to .267, so if that case I would take Votto.

If I had to make a final pick RIGHT NOW, I would probably go with Votto, but get back to me on Sept 29th and I will look at it again

Posted: **Tue Jul 16, 2013 4:34 pm**

Glenneration X wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:I've had a few inquiries as to how I use ABBB.
ABBB is just at bats plus walks.
I'm not like most fantasy baseball guys. I think of walks as a minus, not a plus.
So, with some players I'll use it to get a 'true' fantasy average.
Remember, this is 'true' for me, if you agree with my thinking or logic, it could be true for you, if not, don't use it.

I use ABBB like this.
Adam Jones has 395 at bats plus 13 walks. 408 ABBB.
He has 117 hits.
So, his ABBB adjusted average is .287

Joey Votto has 352 at bats plus 71 walks. 423 ABBB
He has 112 hits
So, his ABBB adjusted average is .265

It works for me. If interested, I can write a post concerning ABBB.
The simplicity is there. It embraces the aggressive hitter. It penalizes the 'wait till I get the perfect pitch' hitters.
Walking in fantasy, unless using speed, is no more than wasted opportunity.
I do not include hbp because the batter does not choose to be hit with a pitch.
For me, it's a better FANTASY barometer than OBP or walk-ladened statistics.
Numerish at its finest.

I am taking a mental LORDly bow

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 6:22 am**

DOUGHBOYS wrote:I've had a few inquiries as to how I use ABBB.
ABBB is just at bats plus walks.
I'm not like most fantasy baseball guys. I think of walks as a minus, not a plus.
So, with some players I'll use it to get a 'true' fantasy average.
Remember, this is 'true' for me, if you agree with my thinking or logic, it could be true for you, if not, don't use it.

I use ABBB like this.
Adam Jones has 395 at bats plus 13 walks. 408 ABBB.
He has 117 hits.
So, his ABBB adjusted average is .287

Joey Votto has 352 at bats plus 71 walks. 423 ABBB
He has 112 hits
So, his ABBB adjusted average is .265

It works for me. If interested, I can write a post concerning ABBB.
The simplicity is there. It embraces the aggressive hitter. It penalizes the 'wait till I get the perfect pitch' hitters.
Walking in fantasy, unless using speed, is no more than wasted opportunity.
I do not include hbp because the batter does not choose to be hit with a pitch.
For me, it's a better FANTASY barometer than OBP or walk-ladened statistics.

I like this Dan. And you know what a Votto fan I am (and an outright, unabashed numerish slut)! Accepting that one of the virtues is simplicity, I do have one question though...in real baseball and fantasy baseball, isn't it to the hitters overall advantage to work the pitch count, see more pitches as it were? I think it would at least help BA. Somebody somewhere has the stats (sorry) on BA by MLB players with full counts, 3-1 counts versus BA having seen less than four pitches.

What I mean is, for simplicity sake, let's take an at bat as having three possible outcomes...hit, walk, out. A hit means BA+, RBI+ (with runners in scoring position), and R+ (can't be driven in if you are not on base). A walk is at least R+. An out is zero positive and BA-. Walks are not as good as hits, but for fantasy, walks are still better than an out and have some fantasy value, right?

Votto as a first rounder?

I bit, taking him over Cargo (dumass), and as an owner may not be objective. That being said, part of why he is not beating the Kyle Seager litmus test is two-fold. Votto could very easily end up this year with 180 hits (projections...I know), which is not unexpected for him. Yet even with all those hits, his RBI's are down accepting that the Reds ahead of him are pretty good at getting on base. So that means the hits are coming with fewer men in scoring position ahead of him. With Phillips and Bruce hitting behind him, I cannot believe that MLB pitchers are pitching around him. So either you have to believe Votto has the yips with runners in scoring position, or this is an anomoly (i.e. bad luck). I will go with the latter rather than the former.

Second and more disturbing is his extra base hits are down (fewer doubles). Could he turn that around? Sure, he could, but to date I think that has contributed to his lack of RBI's. As well he is hitting fewer flyballs, which is impacting his RBI production. Keep the line-drives, turn those grounders into flyballs and maybe he is worth the 1st round cost.

So I agree, no matter what the reason, Votto is not passing the Seager Test and is not producing top-half 1st round value. But I do not want to be premature and Trout him.

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 7:40 am**

Great post, Wayne.

Votto may just be a victim of circumstances for his low rbi. His numbers with runners in scoring position are fine. Well, except for his 'runners in scoring position with two out' in which he is hitting an abysmal .125

Joey Votto is a victim of himself this year. Any time a highlight is shown of Votto, it seems they count the pitches in his at bat.
Votto is the king of long at bats and 'working' pitch counts.
But, you know what?
His best at bats are when he does NOT work a count.
With a 0-0 count
and with a 1-0 count
and with a 0-1 count
Joey Votto is 42-87 or a .483 average. Easily one of the best in Major League baseball when hitting early in the count.

On the other hand, when Votto has a 2-2 count
or 3-2 count
Joey Votto is 21-106 or a .198 average.

Here's a worse kicker for Votto. In every count in which he has already seen four pitches, 3-1, 2-2, 3-2, he only has one homer and a miniscule six rbi.
Votto has been so bad deep in counts, that a walk may be his and his owners best result. Not a good thing.
Since Votto is known for working counts, it is assumed that he hits well behind in a count, ala Wade Boggs.
He doesn't.
Even over his career. But, it seems as though he does because of his highlight at bats.

And I know this comes off as ripping on Joey Votto. I like watching Votto and think he is a terrific hitter.
I use Votto because he is the poster boy for working counts and the great at bat.
His long at bats are the tornado that attacks the trailer court.
Yet, he should be the trailer court attacking the tornado the way he hits early in counts.
It is time for accolades about 'a great at bat' to stop.
These 'great at bats' are not beneficial to the hitter, his owner, and the way that 'specialists' come out of the bullpen now, 'great at bats' are not even helping that players team.

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 9:07 am**

This is a tough one Dan.

The numbers can be sliced many different ways. I believe that the numbers disproved your original hypothesis in our discussion the other day, yet the numbers you post today tell a different story and they lean in your direction.

Except.

You are now doing to Votto what you accuse the media of doing to all high P/PA batters. You are ascribing the ability to see many pitches as an attribute of the hitter instead of a function of the pitcher.

Over the past year you’ve written several posts (Yes I read them all

) telling us that it’s the pitcher that walks the batter, not the batter drawing a walk.

So in Votto’s case, it seems to me, you are essential saying that he should swing at pitches that are outside the strike zone because you believe it will increase his production (at least non-walk derived production). Which would take us back to your original point from Tuesday, and I do not believe that his numbers from this season back up that theory. His total production (R/HR/RBI/SB/BA) is lower at home where is walk rate is much lower than it is on the road. And that is oppisite of what you are suggesting.

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 9:48 am**

Navel Lint wrote:This is a tough one Dan.

The numbers can be sliced many different ways. I believe that the numbers disproved your original hypothesis in our discussion the other day, yet the numbers you post today tell a different story and they lean in your direction.

Except.

You are now doing to Votto what you accuse the media of doing to all high P/PA batters. You are ascribing the ability to see many pitches as an attribute of the hitter instead of a function of the pitcher.

Over the past year you’ve written several posts (Yes I read them all ) telling us that it’s the pitcher that walks the batter, not the batter drawing a walk.

So in Votto’s case, it seems to me, you are essential saying that he should swing at pitches that are outside the strike zone because you believe it will increase his production (at least non-walk derived production). Which would take us back to your original point from Tuesday, and I do not believe that his numbers from this season back up that theory. His total production (R/HR/RBI/SB/BA) is lower at home where is walk rate is much lower than it is on the road. And that is oppisite of what you are suggesting.

I'm not saying that at all!
I am asking Votto to be more aggressive.
Quit taking so many pitches to get into a long count!
If ANY batter takes the first three pitches of an at bat, it makes no difference where the pitcher threw the ball unless all three are strikes!

Most folks theorize that the more pitches Votto sees, the more it is to his advantage.
IT ISN'T!
For Votto to be a better hitter in the second half, he has to be more aggressive.
That's all.

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 9:51 am**

I am not asking Votto to go outside his zone.
I am simply saying that if he hits an early strike, instead of taking one or two strikes, he would be a better hitter instead of the popular notion that the more pitches he sees, the better hitter he is.

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 9:57 am**

Navel Lint wrote:So in Votto’s case, it seems to me, you are essential saying that he should swing at pitches that are outside the strike zone because you believe it will increase his production (at least non-walk derived production).

If this is what you got out of this, then I have done a poor job of illustrating my points.
Sorry for this.

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:04 am**

DOUGHBOYS wrote:I am not asking Votto to go outside his zone.
I am simply saying that if he hits an early strike, instead of taking one or two strikes, he would be a better hitter instead of the popular notion that the more pitches he sees, the better hitter he is.

How many of his Strike One's and Strike Two's are looking? I don't know. It would interesting to see how he compares league wide. My guess is that he does take more than the average player, but how much more.

Maybe you can find the numbers, I can't, but I'll keep looking.

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:16 am**

Navel Lint wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:I am not asking Votto to go outside his zone.
I am simply saying that if he hits an early strike, instead of taking one or two strikes, he would be a better hitter instead of the popular notion that the more pitches he sees, the better hitter he is.
How many of his Strike One's and Strike Two's are looking? I don't know. It would interesting to see how he compares league wide. My guess is that he does take more than the average player, but how much more.

Maybe you can find the numbers, I can't, but I'll keep looking.

I don't know.
One last thing about Votto....
When he hits a fair ball on the first strike thrown to him, he is 40 for 82.
A .488 average.
That leaves him with a .267 average for all other at bats.
What is his average after a 'great at bat' ?

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:28 am**

Navel Lint wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:I am not asking Votto to go outside his zone.
I am simply saying that if he hits an early strike, instead of taking one or two strikes, he would be a better hitter instead of the popular notion that the more pitches he sees, the better hitter he is.
How many of his Strike One's and Strike Two's are looking? I don't know. It would interesting to see how he compares league wide. My guess is that he does take more than the average player, but how much more.

Maybe you can find the numbers, I can't, but I'll keep looking.

Alright, I found some numbers. I hope I am interpreting them correctly.

For 2013:

Votto Swings at pitches outside the zone 21%
Lg Avg swings at pitches outside 30.5%

Votto swings at pitches in the Zone 66.5%
Lg Avg swings in the zone at 65.3%

Votto gets at first pitch strike 52.7% of the time
Lg avg gets a first pitch strike 60.4%

The way I read it, he swings at pitches that are strikes just as much as the average player. I see that you are making the argument that he isn't just an average player, he is better than the average. And so I guess you can say that he should swing at strikes more than he does. Maybe his production would go up???? Or maybe he just knows what strikes he can't hit and waits for ones he can.

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:37 am**

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Navel Lint wrote:So in Votto’s case, it seems to me, you are essential saying that he should swing at pitches that are outside the strike zone because you believe it will increase his production (at least non-walk derived production).
If this is what you got out of this, then I have done a poor job of illustrating my points.
Sorry for this.

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:58 am**

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:
If this is what you got out of this, then I have done a poor job of illustrating my points.
Sorry for this.

Yes. I know exactly how you feel

Posted: **Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:26 am**

DOUGHBOYS wrote:One last thing about Votto....
When he hits a fair ball on the first strike thrown to him, he is 40 for 82.
A .488 average.

Sounds like Votto only swings at the first pitch if it is a pitch he can hit square and hard...

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Fun with Numbers...Or, Now, the Joey Votto Thread

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