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Numbers are not always the answer in baseball or fantasy baseball. Sometimes we have to say, 'I saw it, it's so.'
We see Yasiel Puig. We want to believe the numbers guys. That he'll never keep it up (That's what she said), but he does. And we remember these same number guys were saying the same thing about Mike Trout.

Yasiel Puig reminds me of an out of control Bo Jackson. And Bo Jackson was the best athlete I've ever seen. Puig, seemingly runs faster than anybody in baseball and throws the ball farther than anybody in baseball.
My eyes say he's the best athlete in baseball. Because he does not play under control though, he is far from being the best baseball player in baseball. Basically, that is short for 'he'll do a lot of stupid shit'.
Sometimes, his talent will override the exuberance, and sometimes the exuberance will get him hurt.
Helluva conundrum for fantasy players.
His talent and entertainment value alone, will net him being taken in the first round of most drafts next year.
If Joey Votto had a polar opposite, it would be Yasiel Puig.
Part of the beauty of fantasy baseball is that Puig and Votto could be side by side in fantasy drafts.

I'm getting bombarded by folks asking who this Johnson guy is that's leading the NL in hitting. Numbers guys are saying it shouldn't happen. But it is.
Numbers guys need a ratio for 'shit happens'.
If we divide last year's Trout with this year's Puig and add Chris Johnson and Chris Davis, we'll have a good start to the 'Shit Happens' ratio's.
Nobody, not even numbers guys can predict these seasons. If you draft Chris Johnson during the next off season, you may be more apt to get twice as many homers as a repeat of his batting average next year.
He's been flat out lucky. I don't need to look at BABIP. I've seen it. It seems like every ground ball he hits is up the middle or between the 3b-ss, but who cares?
His owners surely don't.
Ride Johnson (And again, that's what she said).
Shit happens.

There are still folks that can't believe Patrick Corbin. Give them their choice between Corbin and Verlander, they'll take Verlander every time. He's done it longer. But, it's Corbin doing it this year. And it's always the current year that counts.
Last year was last year.
Next year is next year.
Corbin is better this year.
The numbers guys believe more in Matt Harvey than Corbin. They won't admit it, but most of this bias stems from letters, not numbers.
Those letters are MPH.
Oh sure, a number goes in front of those letters, a number that suits Harvey far more than Corbin.
Those same MPH guys were gaga over Strasburg and Chapman going into this year as well.
Note to self- MPH could also mean 'More Pitcher Hype'.
Will I take Harvey before Corbin next year?
Sure.
Both are three category pitchers. Harvey being an E.R.A./W.H.I.P/K guy. Corbin, a E.R.A./W.H.I.P./Win guy.
But Wins is the more variable of all categories. Next year, the Mets may actually score runs for Harvey, more peculiar things have happened.

Sometimes the Wins category is stupid. And we have to approach it like it's stupid.
We can compare a guy like Corbin and a guy like Harvey in ratios, but for Wins, we also have to consider their teams offense, bullpen, and league. Both have close to the same E.R.A., but Harvey has to pitch for the Mets. A team with a crappy bullpen and offense. Corbin's team has a so-so bullpen and good offense.
Voila, Corbin 12 Wins, Harvey eight.
The problem for fantasy players is we don't know how good or bad these teams will be before the season. Most folks thought that the Nats would be all that and a bag of Doritos before the season.
Wrong.
The Nats suck and Strasburg has as many Wins this year as Dallas Keuchel, five.
Part of this is Strasburg's fault too, not just the Nats.
In having Strasburg this year on some teams, I've followed him and it seems that he gives up more runs when the Nats have the lead.
A little like he is missing that killer instinct.
It gives me something to think about before drafting Strasburg next year.
Most think that Dan Haren has been absolutely horrible this year.
He has. Yet, he has the same Wins as Strasburg, five.


Can you name the Wins leader for the Kansas City Royals?
Go ahead think about it for a minute.
I'll cue up the 'Final Jeopardy' music.
dum dum dum dee dee dum dum dum,
dum dum dum dum dee dee dum dum,
dum dum dum dum dum dee dum dum,
dum ta dum ta dum ta dum dum dum
Jeremy Guthrie.
That's right. With Shields and Santana getting the pub for the Royals staff, Jeremy Guthrie is their Wins leader.
He has 11.
Even taking bullpen and offense and league out of the equation, Wins are too much of a variable to figure out.
Even for pitchers on the same team.
By the way, Guthrie has as many strike outs as Trevor Rosenthal.
It's true.
And Guthrie has thrown 87 more innings.
Look it up.
I can't make that stuff up.

Next year, aside from the posts that say 'Jedd Gyorko is a 30/100/.300 guy', you'll also have somebody say that 'James Shields, with the Pirates, will be a 20 game winner'.
This most likely will be coming from a guy who already owns Shields, and of course, is expecting the best from him.
Truth be told, we don't even know if the Pirates will be any good next year. There are no carry overs in baseball.
Shields has six Wins this year. He's on a team that is just over .500. By all rights, he should have more Wins than he does.
'By all rights' doesn't work for Wins though.
Guthrie has a 4.22 with 11 Wins
Lester has a 4.58 with 10 Wins
AJ Burnett pitching for those Pirates has a 2.86 and FOUR Wins.
Four.
Remember Wandy Rodriguez?
That guy that pitched a long time ago for the Pirates?
Yeah, that guy.
Six Wins.
Burnett works his ass off all year and a guy on Workman's Comp has 50% more Wins.
Life ain't fair, and neither are Wins.

So true. Sadly, I have Cole Hamels on several teams. Seems like every time he pitches well and is in line for a win, the Phillies' bullpen, including Papelbon, blows it. Don't get me wrong - I know this turned out to be a bad pick this year, and he did not pitch well at times, particularly in the beginning of the year. But that's what makes his recent hard luck all the more frustrating. Case in point: eight scoreless innings against the Giants this week, only to have Papelbon come in and quickly turn a 1-0 lead into a 2-1 loss. Start before that, Two earned runs over seven innings at Detroit. Loss. It has just been one of those years for Hamels. It is like Cliff Lee had "tough luck, no wins" disease last year and infected Hamels with it this year. It does kind of show that, more often than not, you don't draft for wins. Concentrate on ERA, WHIP and Ks and hope for the best with wins.

Mike

So right, Mike.
I own Hamels too. I play a game with myself in seeing how he will not win his next game. I correctly guessed Papelbon last game.
He is scheduled at home against the Cubs next game.
My guess this time is two rain outs and his start is changed to on the road vs. St Louis where he loses 3-1.

Either that, or the Phillies, for once, score eight runs for Hamels but there is a huge rain storm at the end of the fourth inning with the Phillies up 8-0. Of course, either the game gets rained out (leaving us with no stats for the week) or the rain delay goes an hour or more and Charlie Manuel brings in a reliever to pitch the fifth (and steal Hamels' win).

Mike

Ha!
We have the same mind games!
We don't really blame Hamels. It's darn circumstances.
It just seems like his owners are cursed to view how many times a pitcher can avoid a Win.
If Hamels gets eight runs scored for him, he may faint. Of course, before the fifth inning......