Joey Votto, Say Hello to Bryce Harper
Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 10:12 am
We're all victims of ourselves. No matter what we do, we can't escape who we are. It's what makes each of us different before a draft. Human nature touches all of us in different ways.
In fantasy baseball, we may get caught up in a feeding frenzy. And what we feed on is adp. I'm in the minority with my 'screw adp!' mantra. I've seen adp turn normally level headed thinkers into alcoholics at closing time.
This year, Bryce Harper was one of the fastest rising adp'ers.
In the first drafts of the off season, Harper was a solid third round pick.
Enter the hype. Pundits talked of Harper so much and so often that his adp would finally arrive in first rounds of most live drafts.
The only thing that had changed from October to March was talk. Talk and human nature. Suddenly, Harper was a hot object. A player that some just HAD to have. They didn't feel this way in October, but dammit, with so many folks being interested, HE MUST BE WORTH IT.
Only, he wasn't.
Harper has a .261/49/17/40/6
And please, don't give me the 'but he was hurt' line. Harper is a player who is going to get hurt.
Bank it.
It's how and who he is.
But, to be fair let's compare Harper's numbers with that of another injured player. Somebody, who's maladies are even worse than Harper's.
Harper- .261/49/17/40/6
Pujols- .258/49/17/64/1
The Pujols catcalls have been going on all year, yet his numbers are just as good as the guy who passed him as a 'must take' in the first round. Still, I hear nothing from Harper owners.
Are they happy? Nah, they can't be.
Like Joey Votto, and obviously for different reasons, I do not see Bryce Harper as a first round pick for next year. At least on my lists.
Reasons are many.
1. Harper's best years will be later, not next year.
2. Harper has not learned to play within himself, thus avoiding injuries.
3. Except for possibly an outlier year, he is at best a .270ish batting average hitter.
4. He's not particularly fast, making him Markakiusian in the sb department.
5. And worse, he really is just a platoon player.
Now, I know you'll scoff at the mighty Bryce Harper being a platoon hitter.
But, he is.
He only hits .169 vs. lefties., with only two homers in 89 at bats.
Andre Ethier, who the Dodgers are just now figuring out is a platoon player has a .224 average vs lefties with two homers as well.
That screams platoon player. It also screams of a player who will constantly be getting out by the Randy Choate's of the world for the rest of his career..
Go ahead, start Harper against Wood, Minor, and Teheran in this weekend's series. I'll go with Scott Hairston.
The odds are that I'll beat you over the next three days.
Which should send some kind of red flag that, hey, if Scott Hairston is a better bet than Harper for a weekend, is Harper really a first round player?
I don't think so.
The fact of the matter is that Bryce Harper, right now, does not come close to Mike Trout. He's a possible three category player who most definetly, again, will be over drafted next year.
In fact, I can almost see the same scenario for Harper. Over drafted even in the second round, a decent spring and a lot of pundits talking him up till, again, he ends up in the first round.
I won't be even taking him in the second round, let alone the first.
Bryce Harper and players like him are part of the reason I've come to love the SCREW ADP! approach.
In fantasy baseball, we may get caught up in a feeding frenzy. And what we feed on is adp. I'm in the minority with my 'screw adp!' mantra. I've seen adp turn normally level headed thinkers into alcoholics at closing time.
This year, Bryce Harper was one of the fastest rising adp'ers.
In the first drafts of the off season, Harper was a solid third round pick.
Enter the hype. Pundits talked of Harper so much and so often that his adp would finally arrive in first rounds of most live drafts.
The only thing that had changed from October to March was talk. Talk and human nature. Suddenly, Harper was a hot object. A player that some just HAD to have. They didn't feel this way in October, but dammit, with so many folks being interested, HE MUST BE WORTH IT.
Only, he wasn't.
Harper has a .261/49/17/40/6
And please, don't give me the 'but he was hurt' line. Harper is a player who is going to get hurt.
Bank it.
It's how and who he is.
But, to be fair let's compare Harper's numbers with that of another injured player. Somebody, who's maladies are even worse than Harper's.
Harper- .261/49/17/40/6
Pujols- .258/49/17/64/1
The Pujols catcalls have been going on all year, yet his numbers are just as good as the guy who passed him as a 'must take' in the first round. Still, I hear nothing from Harper owners.
Are they happy? Nah, they can't be.
Like Joey Votto, and obviously for different reasons, I do not see Bryce Harper as a first round pick for next year. At least on my lists.
Reasons are many.
1. Harper's best years will be later, not next year.
2. Harper has not learned to play within himself, thus avoiding injuries.
3. Except for possibly an outlier year, he is at best a .270ish batting average hitter.
4. He's not particularly fast, making him Markakiusian in the sb department.
5. And worse, he really is just a platoon player.
Now, I know you'll scoff at the mighty Bryce Harper being a platoon hitter.
But, he is.
He only hits .169 vs. lefties., with only two homers in 89 at bats.
Andre Ethier, who the Dodgers are just now figuring out is a platoon player has a .224 average vs lefties with two homers as well.
That screams platoon player. It also screams of a player who will constantly be getting out by the Randy Choate's of the world for the rest of his career..
Go ahead, start Harper against Wood, Minor, and Teheran in this weekend's series. I'll go with Scott Hairston.
The odds are that I'll beat you over the next three days.
Which should send some kind of red flag that, hey, if Scott Hairston is a better bet than Harper for a weekend, is Harper really a first round player?
I don't think so.
The fact of the matter is that Bryce Harper, right now, does not come close to Mike Trout. He's a possible three category player who most definetly, again, will be over drafted next year.
In fact, I can almost see the same scenario for Harper. Over drafted even in the second round, a decent spring and a lot of pundits talking him up till, again, he ends up in the first round.
I won't be even taking him in the second round, let alone the first.
Bryce Harper and players like him are part of the reason I've come to love the SCREW ADP! approach.