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I've decided that for this week and maybe coming weeks, I will not talk about PEDS unless it pertains to FANTASY baseball.
Lets face it, it sucks. If ARod gets hit by a pitch every game it's ok with me. So, I'll let Outlaw talk about the trash part of real baseball.
For this post, let's screw real life PEDS and talk about the fantasy side of it.

I refuse to believe that Marlon Byrd is having a 'Comeback' year.
I do.
He hits with power like Melky, he runs like Melky, he used to be not that good of a player like Melky.
He doesn't pass my 'duck test'.
In fantasy, personal opinions about players are the only thing that matters.
Somebody may take Byrd and recite this years stats to me. And who knows, Byrd may not get caught, bacause remember, he is already guilty in my fantasy mind.
If he doesn't get caught, he could repeat his year and that fantasy player could have a gold mine. The problem being is that that gold mine is a lot more expensive than just fishing him out of faab.
He may even be a eighth or ninth rounder.
Byrd, getting caught, would really put a hurtin' on that team.
No thanks.

What about somebody as big as Braun?
I suspect Chris Davis.
I can't help it. He does things from a power perspective that no other player does.
I want to believe it's real. But in fantasy, if we don't stay true to ourselves, we're a loser.
At the least I know that I will knock Davis down a peg or two.
If he's using, he'll keep on using. These guys don't stop on their own. They stop, when caught.
Then they're sorry. You know, the cookie jar sort of sorry.
So in my mind, I have a doubt about Davis.
I could just ride Davis, hoping that he doesn't get caught or is clean or I can back off on him, knowing that if I back off on him, he won't make one of my teams because somebody else will only see the Numerish.
So, in being honest with myself, I'm passing on Chris Davis for next year.

Somebody suggested to me that Alfonzo Soriano is juiced. I don't think so. To me, he is still the same dive and drive type of hitter, his luck lately has run Reddick-like lately.
It'll pass. And Soriano will go back to diving again. I don't think it's PEDS.
Soriano is interesting for next year. I had a mancrush on him earlier in his career because he does like to follow his own stats. Now that he's back in NYC, he may be feeling that youthful exuberance again.

What about a guy like Adrian Beltre?
Here is where we have another conundrum. If Beltre is taking PEDS, he's damn good at it.
In fantasy, this is a plus.
He's not like Grandal, a player we've hardly seen because of injury and suspensions.
If Beltre is cheating, he's good at it. In fantasy, we reward good cheaters.
We'll take them as highly as we will clean players.
Beltre is like Cano in that if both have been cheating, their fantasy owners are reaping rewards.
I have no qualms in drafting either. But, the first BioGenesis type rumors that name them automatically precludes me from drafting them.
Like Braun, a good long time cheater himself, rumors

What about past cheaters?
Well, Melky gave us a look at what he's like without juice this year. He looked like Marlon Byrd for the last four years leading in to this year.
We've probably never seen Grandal play without them. Somebody mentioned that he started PEDS in high school.
That is sad.
And, enough information to know that he won't be drafted by me next year.
I think we've seen Peralta on and off PEDS. I'll stay away.
Everth Cabrera, I may be interested in. I don't know if he was truthful when he said he only took them this year on bad advice.
If hungry for speed, I might give him a shot.
Not Nellie Cruz.
Cruz has stayed healthy lately. I'm guessing PEDS had a lot to do with that. I remember the old Nelson Cruz could hit.
When healthy.
And that wasn't much.
So, what about Ryan Braun.
I'm of the opinion that he has juiced since College. There are just too many players, coaches, and seedy characters that go back to his college days.
That leaves us with a guy who has never played pro ball without Mothers Little Helper.
That scares the bejeezus out of me as a fantasy player.
We've seen Melky on and off PEDS. The difference is amazing.
We don't know how Braun will be or even if he'll be the same type of player.
For myself, he'll be some other drafters headache or great pick. I can live with somebody else drafting him high. I couldn't live with myself knowing I didn't cash because of taking Braun too high.

Almost all of us hate a baseball player. He may be on a rival team. He might have refused an autograph. He may have gotten drunk or been on steroids or PEDS.
Whatever it was, without knowing this player, we hate him.
For me, it's Alex Rodriguez.
ARod is the easiest player in baseball to hate. He makes a living that we wish we could do. He excelled at that living.
With every move he's made during the last five or so years though, he has made that living while acting as though He and only He is the only thing that matters.
ARod puts the NARC in narcissistic
AROD puts the SELF in selfish
If AROD could, he'd put an 'I' in 'Me', combining his two favorite words.
I passed on ARod for a dollar during faab. I'll pass on him next year, the year after, and every year till he is out of baseball.
Hardly any player has put himself before the game of baseball.
ARod has.
My fantasy teams can look bad enough. No matter the stats ARod generates, I can root against him.
It is with 100% certainty, he won't be doing it for my team.

Dan, Chris Davis?? Even I don't suspect him, but I can see why some would and its hard to debate it. The bottom line is none of us know and we will not know for sure, if ever for quite some time. I believe in 3-4 years I will be probably 99% certain its gone, but that's my opinion. As Greg Ambrosious wrote a few months ago, offensive stats are down the past 2-3 years and at the same time injuries continue to go up the last 2-3 years. I've heard that as much as 40-60% were doing the new version of PEDS in 2011 and 35-40% at the beginning of 2012. Now that's on roughly 750-800 players per year. That's a lot of potential guys juicing.


I got my own little system I've fooled around with since I took a closer look at PEDS during last 2012 season around June and on the heels of the Braun appeal verdict. All but 2 of the most recent players suspended fit the system and screamed PEDS users. It's based on stats, age, past, injuries, and some other subjective criteria, like friends of players previously caught/suspected, public stances, and about 3 other criteria. The bottom line is that just for this 2013 season I've got about 160 players on the list, which would jive with what most have been saying that it still could be as high as 20% this season. Out of 160, about 110 scream PED user.

When this years Stats are all done, and as more news continues to come out about PEDS using players, which it will, I'll update it. Scientific, nope... but at this point in time, if it becomes and edge in fantasy, that's great, but its better than thinking PEDS do not exist. I stayed away from all the players who got suspended on 11 teams this spring except for Melky - 2 teams and Colon- 1 team, foolishly thinking they were clean, caught and tested and could maintain most of their performance. Colon I guess some could say, but he did break down the 2nd half of the 2011 and 2012, same thing this year. Melky, Indy ball for him soon... I stayed away from another 20 or so decent players too when I drafted, thinking, well they could get suspended too, not the case, but most of them have had a decline so far this year. Has all that helped me, not sure yet, but I think next year it will.

I think I'll end up with a list of 75 players next year, that I will not touch before round 20 in any draft... and most I'll just avoid, because i suspect my list might be as high as 80-90% accurate. Not drafting them for 2014 will have nothing to do with whether they are actively still using some form of PEDS or not. Thier performance will decline and they will be drafted as if not on PEDS by most. I'll see how it plays out next year.

One thing I will not do is publicly name players who have not been named prior or suspected, but that's just me. I got no problem though saying there are a lot more and there are. Let the clean players clean it up first.

Blame it on the era. Blame it on the cheaters. Blame it on me for thinking the worst.
Chris Davis has balls go off his bat that I've only seen in batters that are juiced.
There is a cover story by Tom Verducci coming this week talking about Davis, the changes he's made, and the science of hitting.
In the article, Verducci asks Davis about steroids or PEDS, which is fruitless, because if we have learned anything from those in the past, answering 'no' to a 'yes' question comes easy.
I'm not accusing Davis.
It wouldn't matter if I did. I'm a nobody. But, in my mind, I can't draft him with money on the line for fear of consequences that will come my way. I think he'll go in the first round because others won't think the way I do. That's why we draft.
Each one of us are influenced by something. We could have seen Justin Upton hit the bejeezus out of a ball live and have that thought at a draft. That maybe he'll do that again and again.
Others had Upton last year, and will remember how he screwed them.

I don't bang the drum to get sentiment against Chris Davis. I want him to be clean. I want to be wrong.
And others will bet money that he is clean. I can't do that.

[quote="DOUGHBOYS"]Blame it on the era. Blame it on the cheaters. Blame it on me for thinking the worst.
Chris Davis has balls go off his bat that I've only seen in batters that are juiced.
There is a cover story by Tom Verducci coming this week talking about Davis, the changes he's made, and the science of hitting.
In the article, Verducci asks Davis about steroids or PEDS, which is fruitless, because if we have learned anything from those in the past, answering 'no' to a 'yes' question comes easy.
I'm not accusing Davis.
It wouldn't matter if I did. I'm a nobody. But, in my mind, I can't draft him with money on the line for fear of consequences that will come my way. I think he'll go in the first round because others won't think the way I do. That's why we draft.
Each one of us are influenced by something. We could have seen Justin Upton hit the bejeezus out of a ball live and have that thought at a draft. That maybe he'll do that again and again.
Others had Upton last year, and will remember how he screwed them.

I don't bang the drum to get sentiment against Chris Davis. I want him to be clean. I want to be wrong.
And others will bet money that he is clean. I can't do that.[/quote


Me too- I hear you... I'm sure its going to be an interesting Winter and Spring Draft season...