When Opportunity Comes Knocking, Answer The Door
Posted: Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:22 am
There is a word that is hardly spoken by pundits during the off season. It's a word that the Numerish cannot quantify. A word that experts have a hard time using in a story.
That word is 'Opportunity'.
Opportunity comes under the heading of luck, more than skill. Opportunity cannot be measured, so the above stay away from the word.
The truth is though, that opportunity is what stirs our fantasy drink.
We want to have as many at bats or pitches thrown as possible. We know that if our player is in the lineup, or given an opportunity, that he will shine.
And once in that lineup, we want him to come up with the bases loaded and less than two outs because that situation provides for more opportunities for better stats.
Let's take a look at a shortstop having a sub-par year, but getting opportunities.
And another having a pretty good year, but lacking opportunity.
Zack Cozart is the sub-par fantasy player.
Alexi Ramirez is having a very good fantasy year, mostly due to his speed driven 25 stolen bases and his.289 batting average.
If given a choice between the two, a fantasy player would choose Ramirez every time.
Cozart, in 75 less at bats than Ramirez, has a .238 batting average.
So, why even compare these two shortstops?
Oportunity.
Ramirez has hit .319 with runners in scoring position
.341 with runners in scoring position and two out.
.429 with the bases loaded.
On the surface, these are wonderful statistics, right?
Let's look at Cozart.
Cozart hits .179 with runners in scoring position.
.175 with runners in scoring position with two outs.
.200 with the bases loaded.
Yuck, right?
And again, you're asking why these two need to be compared.
It's because Cozart has one more rbi than Ramirez.
Even with all those horrible Cozart stats compared to Ramirez more sterling stats.
Even though Ramirez has 75 more at bats than Cozart, Cozart has come up with runners in scoring position 15 more times than Ramirez.
He's had 13 more chances with two outs, and three more with the bases loaded.
Ramirez rbi has been a victim of circumstances. It could be where he hits in the lineup. It could be that his White Sox teammates do not afford him the opportunities that Reds teammates give Cozart.
You can bet your ass that when experts talk of Ramirez lesser power and his rbi to go with it, that the word, 'opportunity' will never be mentioned. The home run or power part of the argument will be true, the lacking rbi is really out of Ramirez control. He has hit well with runners on base and in scoring position. Experts will shortchange him in that regard during the off season, especially with his judy-looking stats.
Truth is, besides his power drought, he just didn't get enough opportunity to knock in those runs.
Cozart leads baseball in the luckiest of all stats.
The sacrifice fly.
Nobody tries to hit a sacrifice fly. It just happens.
It's a lucky stat because that batter has to be put in a position to hit a sacrifice fly.
Enter Zack Cozart.
A man of opportunity.
That word is 'Opportunity'.
Opportunity comes under the heading of luck, more than skill. Opportunity cannot be measured, so the above stay away from the word.
The truth is though, that opportunity is what stirs our fantasy drink.
We want to have as many at bats or pitches thrown as possible. We know that if our player is in the lineup, or given an opportunity, that he will shine.
And once in that lineup, we want him to come up with the bases loaded and less than two outs because that situation provides for more opportunities for better stats.
Let's take a look at a shortstop having a sub-par year, but getting opportunities.
And another having a pretty good year, but lacking opportunity.
Zack Cozart is the sub-par fantasy player.
Alexi Ramirez is having a very good fantasy year, mostly due to his speed driven 25 stolen bases and his.289 batting average.
If given a choice between the two, a fantasy player would choose Ramirez every time.
Cozart, in 75 less at bats than Ramirez, has a .238 batting average.
So, why even compare these two shortstops?
Oportunity.
Ramirez has hit .319 with runners in scoring position
.341 with runners in scoring position and two out.
.429 with the bases loaded.
On the surface, these are wonderful statistics, right?
Let's look at Cozart.
Cozart hits .179 with runners in scoring position.
.175 with runners in scoring position with two outs.
.200 with the bases loaded.
Yuck, right?
And again, you're asking why these two need to be compared.
It's because Cozart has one more rbi than Ramirez.
Even with all those horrible Cozart stats compared to Ramirez more sterling stats.
Even though Ramirez has 75 more at bats than Cozart, Cozart has come up with runners in scoring position 15 more times than Ramirez.
He's had 13 more chances with two outs, and three more with the bases loaded.
Ramirez rbi has been a victim of circumstances. It could be where he hits in the lineup. It could be that his White Sox teammates do not afford him the opportunities that Reds teammates give Cozart.
You can bet your ass that when experts talk of Ramirez lesser power and his rbi to go with it, that the word, 'opportunity' will never be mentioned. The home run or power part of the argument will be true, the lacking rbi is really out of Ramirez control. He has hit well with runners on base and in scoring position. Experts will shortchange him in that regard during the off season, especially with his judy-looking stats.
Truth is, besides his power drought, he just didn't get enough opportunity to knock in those runs.
Cozart leads baseball in the luckiest of all stats.
The sacrifice fly.
Nobody tries to hit a sacrifice fly. It just happens.
It's a lucky stat because that batter has to be put in a position to hit a sacrifice fly.
Enter Zack Cozart.
A man of opportunity.