NFBC Message Boards

These Boards are so dead, I almost think of it as a ghost town. It happens every year when the Dark Side takes over the Camp for a couple of weeks.
Amusing that this happens as pennant races heat up and league standings begin firming up, but that is the nature of the beast.
And I'll continue writing to myself. If I answer myself, stop me!

A week or two ago, Brandon Phillips became unglued when a reporter said that in moving to the second spot in the lineup, the Reds would be lessening their OBP.
Phillips shouldn't have blown up. He should have said, "So What?!"

I went team by team to find leading on base percentage hitters and their rbi counterparts. These are based on having enough at bats to matter. These stats were done yesterday, so if something happened last night to change them, you'll know why they are as they are.
The results were enough to make Phillips smile.
Let's take a look......

Arizona-
Paul Goldschmidt is the clear leader in both obp and rbi. Heck, he even leads the Diamondbacks in steals. Goldschmidt likes seeing pitches. Not Joey Votto addicted, but enough to garner a lot of walks. When we see a hitter like Goldschmidt who is not afraid to take a walk and pair that with pitchers who would rather face the next hitter, Goldschmidt will get a lot of walks.

Atlanta-
Freddy Freeman leads both categories. Freeman is not as feared as Goldschmidt, so pitchers are more apt to pitch to him.
Goldschmidt only has four more hits than Freeman, but 35 more walks.

Baltimore-
Chris Davis for both categories. Are you starting to see a trend here?
Davis is not that picky, really. Most of his walks occur because pitchers don't want to give him something to hit. But, most pitchers think they can get him and are not afraid to throw him strikes.
Davis is having an out of this world year. If he gets deep in counts, it's usually because of two swinging strikes or fouls.

Boston-
Ortiz and Ortiz. Yeah, we're not going to see too many number two hitters here.
Ortiz is like Davis in that he's not that picky, although he does look for the money pitch.

Cubs-
Anthony Rizzo and Rizzo. Rizzo has drawn more walks than Ortiz. He's not more feared. While Ortiz has Mike Napoli behind him, Wellington Castillo may be behind Rizzo.
Remember, my theory is that most hitters do not 'draw walks'. Rather, pitchers are not keen on pitching to good hitters.
As seen so far, there are reasons why these players lead their teams in OBP.

White Sox-
Adam Dunn and Dunn.
We all know about Dunn's penchant for taking pitches.

Cincinnati-
Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips.
Votto takes taking pitches to the nth degree. So much so that he may even be hurting his club and I know that he hurts his fantasy owners.
Essentially, Phillips is taking Votto's leftovers and making a nine course rbi meal with them.

Cleveland-
Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis. If Managers wanted a good OBP guy near the top of the lineup, Santana would be the guy. Quietly, he is as bad at wanting a certain pitch as Adam Dunn. But makes more contact, so he doesn't get as much pub as Dunn. The Indians really should hit him second.
Kipnis may never be the OBP guy that Santana is, even though he should be more feared. Pitchers will start walking him more. Yes, Missouri/Missouri works in real baseball too.

Colorado-
Cuddyer and Rosario. Notice anything missing? CarGo? Tulo?
Cuddyer is hitting .329. And none of the Rockies really enjoy taking a walk.
Hey! If you played at Coors would you be a Vottomite?
Cuddyer and Rosario being at the top illustrates how much time CarGo and Tulo have missed....And that Cuddyer has quietly had a great year.

Detroit-
Miguel Cabrera and Cabrera.
Cabrera has 79 walks, he probably would have been happy with zero and have a chance to hack.

Houston-
Castro and Carter
Castro has a more polished approach at the plate. He is a professional hitter on a team of professional missers.
Carter connects and hits the ball hard between strike outs.

Angels-
Trout and Trumbo
Mike Trout has become such a good hitter that pitchers don 't mind putting his speed on first base. They'd rather deal with him than in the batters box.
That is a large tribute.
Trumbo above Hamilton and Pujols has become the major beneficiary.

Dodgers-
Ethier and Gonzalez
Surprise, surprise! The Dodgers are an aggressive team.
How aggressive?
Ethier is the only Dodger with even 50 walks. The only Dodger in the top 75 of walks.
For you sabrs who think walks equal better teams, how in the world are the Dodgers winning?

Miami-
Stanton and Stanton....and it ain't pretty

Milwaukee-
Aoki and Lucroy.
FINALLY!
Finally we have our first top of the order player leading in OBP.
And how has that worked out for you, Milwaukee?
In a way, Aoki gets an asterisk as Braun would most likely be leading both categories.

Minnesota-
Mauer and Morneau.
Minnesota put Mauer where he should be hitting. In such a bad lineup, it is good to have the best hitters hit near the top of a lineup, no matter the lack or even over abundance of power.
Get your best hitters up more times in a game.
It took Buck Showalter over 100 games before trusting Davis to be one of those good hitters that should hit up in the lineup.

Mets-
Wright and Byrd. Typical Mets, neither of them around.

Yankees-
Cano and Cano. Cano doesn't like walks, but if you're a righty and you see ARod or Soriano in the on deck circle, I'd take my chances with them.

Oakland-
Donaldson and Donaldson.
He hits all over that lineup. He is not afraid to take a walk, but likes hacking too. He only has one less walk than Cano.

Philadelphia-
Utley and Brown
Utley is a professional hitter. If the situation is right, he will almost will a walk.
Brown is a hacker and only has a .320 On Base Percentage.
I respect Utley, but I want Brown on my fantasy team.

Pittsburgh-
McCutchen and Alvarez.
McCutchen is a little like Trout, in that he scares enough pitchers to the brink that they'd rather see him on first than in the batters box.
Alvarez, for pitchers is like getting in the ring with an unpolished boxer. You can make him swing and miss a lot, but if he tags you, you're off to lalaland.

San Diego-
Everth Cabrera and Wil Venable.
This is a testament to how bad the Padres hitting is this year, more than these leaders.
Only two Padres have even over 40 walks this year. There is not a Padre to be feared, so pitchers are giving them strikes in that big ballpark and telling them to hit.
They Ain't.

San Francisco-
Posey and Pence.
I've never been a Pence fan, but would rather have him on my team over Posey.
Look at the comparison-
Posey-.309/53/14/69/1
Pence .283/75/18/72/21
Pence has fed a little bit off pitchers avoiding Posey.
If there is one thing worse than taking the risk of drafting a catcher so high, it is seeing that catcher walked and pitched around with runners on base.

Seattle-
Seager and Morales
Seager doesn't look for walks. Righties prefer to not throw him as many strikes and Morales gets the leftovers.

St. Louis-
Finally! And this really is a, 'Finally'.
Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig.
This is a pairing that SABR's are looking for. Unlike Aoki, Carpenter's OBP is earned. The Cards have no Braun-like character and are stacked with good hitters. The guy with the best OBP hits at the top, imagine that.
Craig is the recipient of having Carpenter, Beltre, and Holliday hitting in front of him. None of these hitters, maybe including Craig himself, are not home run hitters per se anymore.
But they are really good at getting beyond first base in setting Craig up for rbi.

Tampa-
Zobrist and Longoria
This is Carpenter and Craig lite.
Zobrist does not hit at the top of the order and Longoria does not play on a team that gives him as many rbi ops as Craig.

Texas-
Beltre and Beltre
Beltre does it the fantasy way. His OBP is built on hits, not walks. He has 174 hits, just 43 walks.
There is obp, and then, there is OBP.

Toronto-
Encarnacion and Encarnacion
Encarnacion has gotten a little pickier this year. If the trend continues next year, he may be less fantasy friendly.

So, what have we learned?
We've learned that obp does not mean a top of the lineup type hitter, Aoki and Carpenter aside.
An OBP hitter usually reflects a team's best hitter. The one hitter that needs to be avoided in a lineup.
If this hitter is also extra picky( yeah, you Joey) pitchers are ok with that and look at him at first base rather than in the batters box.
No problem.

We've learned that OBP'ers aren't necessarily looking for a walk as much as a pitcher would rather face somebody else.
They'll take a walk, sometimes grudgingly, knowing that maybe a Prince Fielder, or Nelson Cruz, or Brian McCann can do the job behind them.

For my fantasy purposes, OBP is neither something that should be avoided or drawn. As said, an OBP like Beltre's where most of the times on base come by hit is very fantasy friendly. The walk-ladened Votto is the opposite and Votto will not be on a team of mine next year. Him drawing a walk is almost as painful as my pitcher giving an intentional walk, and it happens much more frequently.
In looking at OBP, look at how that OBP was arrived at. More can be told in how a stat came to be, then the actual stat itself.
We may even see OBP as a spring board instead of sure draftee.
Guess who has been up to the plate with the most men in scoring position in the National League this year?
Jay Bruce.
Whose second?
Brandon Phillips.
Both feeding off the Joey Votto at bats. From a fantasy perspective, we want guys like Bruce and Phillips. This game is as much about opportunity as it is skill.
Lets go even further,,,,
Pedro Avlarez is third seeing runners in scoring position.
Thanks to McCutchen.
Hunter Pence is fourth, thanks Buster.

OBP helps Major League teams. They also help fantasy teams, sorta.
Joey Votto just isn't helping his owners as much as he's helping Phillips and Bruce owners.
Posey is helping Pence owners.
We don't like helping other owners. This is a selfish game. A screw you game.
OBP hitters are like the good fairies in fables trying to help everybody.
It doesn't work well for fantasy teams in which each owner would treat other teams as the Wicked Witch.

As for that writer criticizing Brandon Phillips OBP over other Reds second hitters. You would have been better served in criticizing Dusty Baker for not moving Joey Votto in the two-hole.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Cincinnati-
Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips.
Votto takes taking pitches to the nth degree. So much so that he may even be hurting his club and I know that he hurts his fantasy owners.
Essentially, Phillips is taking Votto's leftovers and making a nine course rbi meal with them.An OBP hitter usually reflects a team's best hitter. The one hitter that needs to be avoided in a lineup.

If this hitter is also extra picky( yeah, you Joey) pitchers are ok with that and look at him at first base rather than in the batters box.
No problem.

We've learned that OBP'ers aren't necessarily looking for a walk as much as a pitcher would rather face somebody else.
They'll take a walk, sometimes grudgingly, knowing that maybe a Prince Fielder, or Nelson Cruz, or Brian McCann can do the job behind them.

Guess who has been up to the plate with the most men in scoring position in the National League this year?
Jay Bruce.
Whose second?
Brandon Phillips.
Both feeding off the Joey Votto at bats. From a fantasy perspective, we want guys like Bruce and Phillips. This game is as much about opportunity as it is skill.

OBP helps Major League teams. They also help fantasy teams, sorta.
Joey Votto just isn't helping his owners as much as he's helping Phillips and Bruce owners.

As for that writer criticizing Brandon Phillips OBP over other Reds second hitters. You would have been better served in criticizing Dusty Baker for not moving Joey Votto in the two-hole.

The other night, when Votto reached base five times including three walks, I could not help but imagine you, Dan, doing a spit-take!

Great write-up, as always!

Mike Trout went 2-for-5 with a double, homer, three RBI and two runs scored in a 12-1 demolition of the A's on Monday.

Trout had gone hit-less over his last three games, but don't think that he was slumping; the center fielder walked six times. Trout saw an eight-game streak of drawing a walk snapped on Monday (he's first in the AL with 100 free passes), but chances are that the Angels don't care. The All-World talent is slashing .331/.436/.564 with 24 homers, 89 RBI, 33 steals and 106 runs.

Walks too much....second round?

Ahhhh, there is obp, and then, there is OBP.
Mike Trout is not inviting walks. He doesn't 'work' a walk.
Last year, Trout hit at the top of the Angels lineup with perceived dangerous hitters behind him. Pitchers were less apt to walk Trout and Trout took advantage. Batting in the middle of the lineup gives pitchers a reason to avoid Trout and work on the next hitter.
During the winter, since Trout has hit the three digit mark in walks, writers will portray him as a Joey Votto type, instead of what he really is, a Paul Goldschmidt type. Like Goldschmidt, Trout doesn't go to the plate to look at a lot of pitchers. But pitchers are not anxious to throw to them since they don't want to get beat by them when they can take their chances with Trumbo or Aaron Hill.

More interesting is the case of Choo. In the American League, he never took more than 85 walks. He already has 104 walks this year. It could be a mix of Choo becoming more patient and also him coming up with two outs and the pitcher seeing a Heisey, Cozart type hitter behind him.
Choo is on his way to the best obp in his career. But, you know what?
He's going to end up with around the same stolen bases that he's had in his other years. Which fortifies the thought that pitchers may have 'pushed' him behind another runner on the bases in facing a Heisey type.
The result for Choo is that he'll get more runs scored in already topping 100 for the year. He never reached that figure in the American League.

Getting back to Trout, the walks have hurt him this year for his owners.
His OBP is 40 points higher. Pundits will love and drool all over that. But his fantasy numbers suffer. He won't get as many homers or stolen bases as last year.
His rbi are up, his runs scored are down, mostly because of his placement in the lineup.
I still expect him to go top three in every draft.
But, it is another case of better obp meaning less five category stats.

You are bringing me around, but you know I brought out Trout just to kid. Thought you might want a snicker with your Dorito/Yoohoo breakfast.

In short...good stuff...there is obp and OBP...a bad walk versus a good walk...a defensive walk versus an offensive walk.

I knew that!
And my preferred drink with Doritos is Dr. Pepper 10

One more thing and I might as well bring it up here since this is the current thread....

I don't 'hate' Joey Votto. I've gotten e-mails and other communications thinking I hate the guy.
I don't.
Joey Votto is like a kids teddy bear. That kid knows that that teddy bear will be waiting for him every night.
Joey Votto is the NFBC teddy bear, their is no safer or reliable hitter than Joey Votto.
If reliability and safety, not to mention obp, is what we're looking for in a first round pick, then Joey Votto is the man.

I've been a Joey Votto owner in the past. He drives me crazy. He may not drive others crazy.
To me, he is like being in a car driven by my Aunt Ruth. Aunt Ruth is going to reach her destination. And we'll get there safely. But being in a car on a freeway and going 45 mph has me at wits end.
Joey Votto lets hittable pitches go by him. He likes hitting deep in a count. He thinks it makes him a better hitter.
I don't.
His safety and reliability factors for me are overcome by going 45 mph on a freeway when he should be hitting first pitches and I don't even know if that makes sense.
Going 45 mph makes Votto a guy who'll be in the lineup everyday. A great lineup in a great park.
I'm sure he'll make his owners very happy. Especially if enjoying strolls in the park.
He has the second most plate appearances (Dustin Pedroia, 1st) in baseball. For me, the willfullness to take a walk weakens that stat. For others, the stat stands alone as a testament to his reliability.
If Votto had a Puig mindset instead of an Aunt Ruth mindset, he'd probably hit for a little less average, but improve his other categories emphatically.
If nothing else, Votto is one of the few baseball players in history that can be taken in the first round of a fantasy draft and still be called a better baseball player than fantasy player.

And now, I will return to my Doritos and Dr. Pepper 10......

I agree. The safety is an attraction as there is so much volatility in the first round. Other players can (and will) provide more fantasy bang for the buck (or round), but Votto will be there. I know many are not fans of ADP, but it should also be a given that the people who play the NFBC Main are some of the most knowledgeable and represent multiple successful strategies. In the 2013 1st round, we collectively picked twelve batters for the first round:

Miguel Cabrera (3B, Det)
Mike Trout (CF, LAA)
Ryan Braun (LF, Mil)
Robinson Cano (2B, NYY)
Matt Kemp (CF, LAD)
Andrew McCutchen (CF, Pit)
Joey Votto (1B, Cin)
Albert Pujols (1B, LAA)
Carlos Gonzalez (LF, Col)
Prince Fielder (1B, Det)
Troy Tulowitzki (SS, Col)
Giancarlo Stanton (RF, Mia)

Of those, Miggy, Trout, Cano, and McCutchen (i.e. only a third) definitely provided first round value and you would have requested and received a top 6 pick generally to get one of them. For the other 60% of the league, the water was a bit cloudier. Maybe you could put Votto in there with the other first round value guys, but it is a stretch though he is certainly a top 20 batter. And safe for all the reasons you mentioned.

And I think a little unlucky this year. Yes, walks rarely drive in runs and cannot turn into a HR, but one point in this that is not so apparent is that Votto, despite the walks, still has to-date 169 hits (only 15 ballplayers have more). His GB rate may keep his HR down, but 28% to 30% line drive rate means to me that those are solid/consistent hits and there should be more RBI out of those 169 hits than is represented. Votto is a few percentages below the average in this group with a high number of hits and that has to be a least a handful of RBI's (btw, Miggy is generating an RBI three out of the four times he gets a hit on average...why would ANYONE pitch to him with a runner on!) and have a positive impact on his fantasy value.

Now I have to go out and try DP10 for the first time....