RUBI, Don't Take Your Love To Town
Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:54 am
I have a fantasy bias against players walking as most of you know. Experts love the walk. They laud players for taking a walk.
In real baseball, a walk is as good as a hit. There isn't one fantasy player that agrees with that.
When having a bias in fantasy baseball, the first thing to do is to recognize that bias.
Any bias in fantasy sports is not a good thing. Whether it be for a home team, a favorite player, or in my case, a statistic.
So, a statistic is devised to help me through this bias.
The RUBI Avg.
The RUBI Avg is a very fair statistic. If taking a walk and scoring a lot, it rewards that walker. If walks are taken with the bases loaded, it also rewards the player taking the base.
It does not reward a player taking a walk and being stranded on the bases.
I don't like complicated formula's, I'm not that smart.
So here it is in all its simplicity.
Take plate appearances and divide it into the hitters total rbi and runs production.
That's it. Simple, right?
This formula applauds those that reach base and light up the rbi and runs category, and at the same time, rewards those who walk, at least those who have productive walks.
Let's take a look at a couple of examples.
I know, I know, right off, you're wondering where Joey Votto fits in.
Votto has a .244 RUBI Avg. Same as Dustin Pedroia.
Like normal batting averages, a .300 RUBI Avg. is a wonderful thing.
Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion all enjoy over .300 averages.
They do so because the RUBI is weighted towards power hitters. But, not just power hitters alone, power hitters that are productive whether hitting or being avoided with a walk.
Jayson Werth has a .309 RUBI avg. This may surprise, but Werth has been very productive with both his hits and walks.
Votto and Pedroia have been productive for their teams and their fantasy owners. The RUBI shows that they could have been better for their fantasy owners.
Still, it could be worse. You could own Starlin Castro.
Castro owners were treated to a .147 RUBI Avg.
.147!
This tells us that for every seven plate appearances for Castro, his owners can expect one run OR rbi. Not good.
That really hurts a fantasy team. Mostly because Castro is an everyday player that fantasy players feel 'will turn it around'.
But he never does and he spits out his two runs scored and one rbi in the weekly stats.
Or in his case, the weakly stats.
For me, the RUBI Avg is more fair than OBP.
OBP is a stat for real baseball. It means nothing to me as a fantasy player.
Absolutely nothing, and I mean that.
A fellow like Mike Trout has been pitched around this year. He's drawn 100 walks. He still attacks balls in the zone, but pitchers are using avoidance on him. His RUBI hasn't been affected much, because Trout is a productive walker and hitter.
His RUBI Avg is .293
RUBI does not discriminate against those that object to walking. Adam Jones has only taken 23 walks this year. Pitchers don't avoid Jones because of Chris Davis looming around him this year.
Jones has come through without the walks and has a very healthy RUBI of .309
The RUBI is just a tool of mine. It leaves out two and a half of the five categories of fantasy baseball, only counting runs, rbi, with a half salute to home runs, since they automatically contribute to the runs/rbi.
It can be eye opening.
Pedroia and Votto lead baseball in plate appearances this year. Their owners have to count on them being in the lineup everyday to receive a benefit. The RUBI shows that both are having under achieving years in a year where owners are generally happy to have them on their team.
Jean Segura owners are grateful to have him. His RUBI is under .200, he's a 'Judy in Disguise'.
Evan Gattis has a better RUBI than Brian McCann.
RUBI is not only a stat to judge a player by, it also tests the mettle of a fantasy player. Most RUBI over achievers are platoon players. These players are not fully rosterable, even in the deep leagues of the NFBC.
Jonny Gomes always has a good RUBI. So does Brandon Moss.
These players test us, because we have to look in our crystal balls and know when to play them. They could have just one start over a four day period. That one start could be more fruitful than four by Starlin Castro. No, strike that, it'll probably be more fruitful than four days of Starlin Castro.
There is one RUBI player this year who exceeds almost every player who plays every day.
Miguel Cabrera has a .381 RUBI. The highest for everyday players.
Ryan Raburn's RUBI is .360
Quietly, Raburn has had an exceptional year. He has as many rbi as Hanley Ramirez. Amazing in that Ramirez' own RUBI is .358 and also has had a phenomenal year if not for injury.
As said, this is just another tool I use to measure what a player is actually doing at the plate from a fantasy perspective. It really has no use for real baseball that I can see.
And that's ok with me since we take so many real baseball statistics and try to conform them to our way of thinking.
In real baseball, a walk is as good as a hit. There isn't one fantasy player that agrees with that.
When having a bias in fantasy baseball, the first thing to do is to recognize that bias.
Any bias in fantasy sports is not a good thing. Whether it be for a home team, a favorite player, or in my case, a statistic.
So, a statistic is devised to help me through this bias.
The RUBI Avg.
The RUBI Avg is a very fair statistic. If taking a walk and scoring a lot, it rewards that walker. If walks are taken with the bases loaded, it also rewards the player taking the base.
It does not reward a player taking a walk and being stranded on the bases.
I don't like complicated formula's, I'm not that smart.
So here it is in all its simplicity.
Take plate appearances and divide it into the hitters total rbi and runs production.
That's it. Simple, right?
This formula applauds those that reach base and light up the rbi and runs category, and at the same time, rewards those who walk, at least those who have productive walks.
Let's take a look at a couple of examples.
I know, I know, right off, you're wondering where Joey Votto fits in.
Votto has a .244 RUBI Avg. Same as Dustin Pedroia.
Like normal batting averages, a .300 RUBI Avg. is a wonderful thing.
Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion all enjoy over .300 averages.
They do so because the RUBI is weighted towards power hitters. But, not just power hitters alone, power hitters that are productive whether hitting or being avoided with a walk.
Jayson Werth has a .309 RUBI avg. This may surprise, but Werth has been very productive with both his hits and walks.
Votto and Pedroia have been productive for their teams and their fantasy owners. The RUBI shows that they could have been better for their fantasy owners.
Still, it could be worse. You could own Starlin Castro.
Castro owners were treated to a .147 RUBI Avg.
.147!
This tells us that for every seven plate appearances for Castro, his owners can expect one run OR rbi. Not good.
That really hurts a fantasy team. Mostly because Castro is an everyday player that fantasy players feel 'will turn it around'.
But he never does and he spits out his two runs scored and one rbi in the weekly stats.
Or in his case, the weakly stats.
For me, the RUBI Avg is more fair than OBP.
OBP is a stat for real baseball. It means nothing to me as a fantasy player.
Absolutely nothing, and I mean that.
A fellow like Mike Trout has been pitched around this year. He's drawn 100 walks. He still attacks balls in the zone, but pitchers are using avoidance on him. His RUBI hasn't been affected much, because Trout is a productive walker and hitter.
His RUBI Avg is .293
RUBI does not discriminate against those that object to walking. Adam Jones has only taken 23 walks this year. Pitchers don't avoid Jones because of Chris Davis looming around him this year.
Jones has come through without the walks and has a very healthy RUBI of .309
The RUBI is just a tool of mine. It leaves out two and a half of the five categories of fantasy baseball, only counting runs, rbi, with a half salute to home runs, since they automatically contribute to the runs/rbi.
It can be eye opening.
Pedroia and Votto lead baseball in plate appearances this year. Their owners have to count on them being in the lineup everyday to receive a benefit. The RUBI shows that both are having under achieving years in a year where owners are generally happy to have them on their team.
Jean Segura owners are grateful to have him. His RUBI is under .200, he's a 'Judy in Disguise'.
Evan Gattis has a better RUBI than Brian McCann.
RUBI is not only a stat to judge a player by, it also tests the mettle of a fantasy player. Most RUBI over achievers are platoon players. These players are not fully rosterable, even in the deep leagues of the NFBC.
Jonny Gomes always has a good RUBI. So does Brandon Moss.
These players test us, because we have to look in our crystal balls and know when to play them. They could have just one start over a four day period. That one start could be more fruitful than four by Starlin Castro. No, strike that, it'll probably be more fruitful than four days of Starlin Castro.
There is one RUBI player this year who exceeds almost every player who plays every day.
Miguel Cabrera has a .381 RUBI. The highest for everyday players.
Ryan Raburn's RUBI is .360
Quietly, Raburn has had an exceptional year. He has as many rbi as Hanley Ramirez. Amazing in that Ramirez' own RUBI is .358 and also has had a phenomenal year if not for injury.
As said, this is just another tool I use to measure what a player is actually doing at the plate from a fantasy perspective. It really has no use for real baseball that I can see.
And that's ok with me since we take so many real baseball statistics and try to conform them to our way of thinking.