I'm too lazy to do it myself, but I wish there was even one more stat that could help NFBCers. I was thinking about this yesterday after an NFBCer showed concern over a young players k/bb ratio,
As most of you know, I give little credence to k/bb ratios for NFBC purposes. It's a 'nice to know' stat, but does not hold my attention in drafting one player over another.
It got me to thinking how tough it is for young players to have a nice k/bb ratio. Pitchers have little fear of fresh meat just up from the minors. In almost no circumstances will a pitcher pitch around a new hitter. If anything, he'll see more hitable pitches. Well, pitches he 'thinks' are more hitable. Hence, the strike outs.
The argument against hitters that strike out a lot is that there is an inherit lowered batting average. And that rbi are left on the bases instead of a batted ball falling in somewhere or an out that produces a run.
To me, it depends on the TYPE of strike out hitter.
Adam Dunn, Joey Votto, Mike Napoli, and Mark Reynolds are the worst type of strike out hitters. Yes, Joey Votto. Votto used to be considered a non-strike out guy. Now, he ranks 28th in most times k'd. It was bound to happen.
Why is this group and others the worst?
Because they prefer to pass on good pitches to get deeper in a count. Strike outs are THEIR fault. They help pitchers along by taking good pitches and at the same time are lauded by Managers, other players, and sabrs for 'working' a pitcher.
For NFBC purposes, this does us little good.
(A little story here. I was a mean pitcher in high school. I loved Bob Gibson and tried to emulate him. When I got 1-0 on a batter and that batter danced around in the box or bluffed a bunt to induce another ball from me, I would try to hit him.
I figured, like Gibson, that if he wanted to walk to first base so bad, he's gonna do it in pain)
Dunn, Votto, etc are comfortable in looking at a lot of pitches. It makes them feel good. It gets pitchers pitch counts up.
For us, it means a lot of two strike counts and the dreaded strike out or at best, a walk.
For the most part, I stay away from these type of strike out guys.
I do prefer the aggressive strike out hitter. The hitter that swings as hard at strike one as strike three.
Pedro Alvarez strikes out four times for every walk. Dunn, just more than twice the times of a walk.
Give me Alvarez.
I know that his strikes come mostly from him trying to help my NFBC team, not from taking a good pitch down the middle to get deeper in a count.
If drafting a guy like Alvarez, I don't want a walk. Just as I don't want one from Dunn. Alvarez bats lower in the lineup with drek behind him. The chances of him scoring on a walk or stealing a base are nil. I want him whaling.
Sometimes I will peek at k/bb ratios for judys or leadoff hitters. We don't mind a walk from these guys. If speedy, they may get a stolen base. If not, there chances of scoring a run are much better than somebody like Alvarez.
So with all this in mind, here is the stat I would like to see, but am too lazy to do.
I would like to see a runs scored on walks rate or a BB/R rate.
If somebody out there has already done this, please send it to me or share with the class here.
I think it would be enlightening to see HOW MUCH a walk really helps our teams and WHO are the ones that are helping our team.
Thanks for the listen.
A Call For Help for the BB/R Rate
A Call For Help for the BB/R Rate
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!