NFBC Message Boards

In one way or another in fantasy baseball, we all think we're smarter than another. Sure, we may admire Steve Jupinka's management of his teams during the year. Or maybe the pristine way that Lindy Hinkelman always seems to draft the right players.
Still, in our own minds, we're gonna get this next one right. That 'next one' may be a draft, in season management, or the whole season. We know we have it in us. Otherwise, we wouldn't put as much money on the line as we do.

As with every year of fantasy baseball, it begins with talk about the first round. Look at 'General Discussion' at the top of the Boards. We are being asked for our top 15. The top 15 never win us a draft. It is merely the foundation of our draft. We see 15 players. We only get one.
I have talked about Joey Votto not belonging in the top 15. That's MY opinion. An opinion that shouldn't have any more credence than any other NFBC'er....well, except for Mr. Hinkelman, if he drafts Votto. you'd be better served in listening to him than me.

As I looked at those 15 though, I started seeing warts. I hate warts.
Then I saw a post that suggested that CarGo has as many frailties as second rounders. And that poster is correct.
We are of different personalities. Our personalities spill into drafts.
Some of us are cautious.
Some of us are daring.
Some of us have a script.
Some of us have projections.
These personalities and different ways to approach a draft give us different picks at different times. This is why no two drafts are the same.
I contend that if we started the Pre-Mature draft over again with every drafter in the same drafting position, that we would come out with a totally different draft. I know my picks would change.
Why?
Partially because of self doubt.
Partially because of an update or two.
Partially because we read the draft wrong and would rather have a player somebody chose earlier than when we were going to take them.
But, mostly because of human nature.

We know we can always do better as drafters. We're going to draft till we get it right.
It's a little like golfing.
Both can be treasured, neither can be mastered.

So, let's fall into the trap of making the first round more important than it is. But instead of talking about why a player is in the first round, let's talk about why he shouldn't.
This will be a look at first rounders with a glass half empty. The top half of the glass. And in some cases, the glass may have a hole in the bottom..........

Miguel Cabrera-
Cabrera gets a pass as does Mike Trout. Cabrera's pass is larger....if there is such a thing.
Cabrera has been doing his thing a lot longer than Trout. He also plays an infield position. Cabrera is THE four category player. Elite in all of them. He's only dabbled with health problems. I'm guessing most players would have begged out of lineups with his abdoman/groin/thigh/whatever else injury he is going through now

Mike Trout-
Trout gets a smaller pass. He is a five category player. He has a chance, a small one to rival Mickey Mantle's '56 season for roto superiority. Mantle finshed 1st in four roto categories and 14th in stolen bases.
I laugh when folks say that age 27 is a players best year. If so, Trout has to wait six years to be really good.

Paul Goldschmidt-
Passes are over.
Goldschmidt is actually older than Trout, but younger in experience. Goldschmidt got to see a lot of good pitches early in the season. Then when word was out about the monster he has become, pitchers started using their only weapon to avoid him. The base on balls.
Goldschmidt handled it rather well. He was walked 50 times after the All Star Break, Vottoarian.
Usually when this happens to a younger player, he'll widen his zone and start lunging after pitches. Goldschmidt did not fall into the trap.
Still, he is young. Some drafters will Missouri/Missouri him. They will just do it at certain points. He could be top five. He could be top ten. He could be top 15.
I don't think he'll be drafted beyond the first round in one NFBC draft.
Chances of failure are minimal. He doesn't get a pass....but it's as close to one as possible.

Andrew McCutchen- .317/97/21/84/27
Nothing wrong with that right?
So why does McCutchen go in every draft before Adam Jones who has a .285/100/33/108/14?
McCutchen is a fun player to watch, but maybe a tad over rated for fantasy purposes. Cutch was a first rounder in every draft last year, Jones, second or third round.
McCutchen is a five category player but is elite in none of them.
When taking him, you could find yourself smacking yourself up the head and saying I should have gone for more power or more speed. Both in other players are more available.

Chris Davis-
Davis almost came out of nowhere to hit over 50 homers. I don't like players that come out of nowhere to hit 50 homers. Well, unless he was on my teams LAST year.
If Davis played in the 60's, we'd call him 'country strong'. Now 'country strong' means 'city slick'.
Davis was a mirage in a lot of ways. Sure, he was the scariest hitter alive in 2013. I give him that.
If he repeats his batting average though, I will go off Nacho Cheese Doritos for a week.
Davis hit .237 over July, August, and September.
THAT is the real Chris Davis.

Robinson Cano-
Cano becomes more of a gap hitter without Yankee Stadium. He already has no speed. Less power, no speed, does not make for a first round pick. He actually had more homers away this year than at home. The first time he has done that in years.
If signing with a team with a ig ballpark, I'm guessing Cano pulls less balls and does what he does best which is be a slash hitter.
That's great for Cano and his new team.
Will it be first round worthy?

Clayton Kershaw-
It's already widely spread that a fellow taking a pitcher in the first round starts behind the eight ball.
A pitcher can only deliver four categories. Even then, it is just once a week.
Kershaw becomes the king of arms, taking over for Verlander. In this day and age, a pitcher can be less relevant in a heartbeat.
Ask Verlander.
Ask Roy Halladay.
Ask Strasburg.

Carlos Gonzalez-
CarGo hates playing in September.
He is a fantasy owners song.
'You Left Me, Just When I Needed You Most'
CarGo has 103 at bats over the last three September's. Dustin Pedroia had 102 Septmber at bats this year alone.
Car Go cried finger. Petey mentioned a thumb.
Pedey played. CarGo didn't.
Now, he has elected not to have surgery. To fantasy owners, this leaves the possibilty that CarGo's finger could crop up again and cost you time from a number one pick.
And it won't even be September yet.

Ryan Braun-
He matched CarGo's September at bats this year, zero.
It's hard to pick on Braun. It's like picking on Obama. Enough people are doing that for us.
Some think that we've never seen the 'natural' Braun play.
It's a little like Kate Upton's chest. Once we get her shirt off, do we care HOW they got that large?
Some of us will, most of us won't.
Braun will be taken in the first round in a lot of drafts. This, despite looking at Melky Cabrera last year, and just shaking our heads.
I can't go on anymore, I knew I shouldn't have used the Kate Upton comparison......
Like golf and fantasy baseball both can be treasured!
Pictures please!
Enough already...

Part two coming soon.......

WOO!
Thanks Kenny.
I can move on now to what is wrong with first rounders....Part Dos

Adam Jones-
This one's a tough one for me. Adam Jones embodies everything I like in a fantasy player. He hustles without getting hurt. He doesn't take a lot of pitches. A 5 category monster.
But, this isn't about how good a first rounder can be, it's about how bad.
Most of last year, monster Chris Davis hit in front or behind Jones, in my mind, Davis will not be the monster next year and Jones will not have so many runners on base around him. Worse, Machado showed he had kneecaps of plastic at the end of the year. Having a doubles hitter in front of you is the perfect remedy for rbi. Rbi that Jones will miss next year.

Bryce Harper-
Can somebody tell me how Bryce Harper has EARNED first round status?
Go ahead....I'm waiting.
Sure, he has talent. And sure, one day, if he plays his cards right, he can grow up to be Mike Trout. Maybe with a little less speed and more power.
The thing is that Harper still does not play under control. He's gonna get hurt. You know it and I know it.
Worse, Harper likes to say, "I'll be in that lineup tomorrow".
Well, that's big talk from a one-eyed fat man, sorry, Rooster Cogburn reference, Harper does make it back to the lineup SOMETIMES. He's enough to drive his owner crazy. First rounders should not drive their owners crazy.

Joey Votto-
Read any of my past stuff. If you're too lazy and don't want to......then too bad, you'll never know why Votto should not be taken in the first round.

Giancarlo Stanton-
His drafters love his physique. Stanton is the Mike Tyson of baseball....only Stanton has a glass jaw.
There is absolutely nothing that says Stanton should be a first round pick.
Stanton has never driven in 90 runs. He's never even scored 80 runs. He's never had double digit stolen bases. He doesn't hit for average.
Why drafters are taking him in the first round is beyond me. He is a ONE category player, who has played over 125 games ONCE in his career. Of all the possible first round candidates, Stanton is by far, the most questionable.
But yet, here he is.

Hanley Ramirez-
Hanley is like CarGo andTulo. The talent is first round. But more than likely, he's going to miss games.
Unlike CarGo and Tulo, Hanley has 'Ramiratosis'.
Ramiratosis is a disease first diagnosed on Hanley himself. Starlin Castro caught the same disease this year.
Ramiratosis is an affliction that makes ball players not want to hustle or do anything that does not come easy to them.
Hanley is susceptible to have it again. Once he has that 'skill', he retains it.
Enjoy the 90 cent body, unfortunately, the 10 cent head is attached.

Matt Carpenter-
I loved Carpenter in 2013. Had him on a lot of teams. I loved him because I got him in the middle of drafts.
Taking him in the first round is folly. Carpenter is a nice guy to have on your team. He'll be 2B/3B eligible next year and most likely be great in two categories. First rounders are not for two category guys.
It is hard to see Carpenter out-producing this year. He may not even get his lead off spot back again. If David Freese continues being a non-factor at 3B, the Cards could be tempted to lead off Wong next year and have Carpenter hit behind him.
One may be thinking more rbi in this scenario. Probably not. Carpenter is a team guy and I see a lot of grounders to the right side in moving Wong to third. In any case, Carpenter should not be taken in the first round.

Troy Tulowitzki-
I think every good fantasy drafter has taken Tulo in a draft. The riches that come with a full season's statistics would be awesome. Now, every good fantasy drafter looks at Tulo with caution.
In short, shortstop kicks Tulo's ass. Tulo likes making twisting, turning plays while showing off his great arm.
And every year he lands on the disabled list.
The Rockies know this. They've even suggested a position change. Note the word, 'Suggested'. Tulo has enough pull to say 'No'. So on we go. If getting a full year out of Tulo, his drafter will have riches. Most good drafters know that those odds are short.

Yasiel Puig-
Puig is Stanton, Harper, Hanley, and Brett Lawrie rolled into one ball player.
Oops, I called him a ball player. He's really not. He's more like BatMan trying to learn how to play baseball. The physical things come easily.
Throwing out a runner from the right field fence? Simple.
Hitting a towering homer? Easy.
Stealing a base? Childs play.
So, why don't I like him in the first round?
First, the Stanton aspect. His body looks like something from a Jack LaLanne handbook, but like Stanton, he easily gets dinged and will miss games.
Second, the Harper aspect. He plays out of control. He has to learn that a wall is a barrier, not something that should be imprinted.
Third, the Hanley aspect.
He is the player who caught Ramiratosis the quickest at the Major League level. If something does not come easy to Puig, he says screw it. And when Puig says screw it, then hustling down to first base or making the right play in the field becomes a chore for him.
Fourth, the Lawrie aspect. Presumably, both Puig and Lawrie will start the year off at 100% next year. But after doing a bunch of physical things unnecessary on the field, their athleticism thorough being less healthy breaks down each month.
We've yet to see Lawrie at a 100% for a long period. We may never see it. And the same thing could happen with Puig.

So there it is. Folks think it's easy to find that foundation for a fantasy team. It's really not.
At the same time, the first round is overemphasized.
Heck, why just this year, the Champions took Joey Votto in the first round and won.
Above all, this should tell us that Championships are not won in the first round.

Great column, Dan. I guess you (and me) will be shooting for an early first round pick! Completely agree with many (but not all) of your identified flaws, especially Harper and Stanton (and I do not consider Carpenter to even be in the discussion for a first round pick, with apologies to whoever drafted him that high in the first draft). Funny how when you plan for a draft, some (including me) focus unduly on the first few rounds, but when Greg posts the drafts of the national champions of the various contests, I find myself skimming over the first few picks and looking for the hidden gems that provided great value in the middle or late rounds. That seems to be where many of the best separate themselves from the rest. Part of the problem with first rounders is that considering where they are picked, the odds that they will under-perform are so much higher than the odds that they will over-perform.

I'm still thinking about who my top choices would be, but I think you were too dismissive of Kershaw (recognizing your intent simply was to identify flaws/questions about so-called first rounders). I've never taken a pitcher in the first round and would prefer to keep that streak intact, but given the flaws you identified with many of the so-called first round batters, I think Kershaw is a legitimate option in the 6-12 range. I understand your point about SPs only contributing to four categories not five like hitters, but there are 14 hitters in a starting lineup and only nine pitchers, so I think one great pitcher can have roughly a similar impact on a team as one great hitter. Perhaps there is a way to mathematically prove this, but that's beyond my math skills.

I also understand that there is a changeover in the top pitchers from year to year, but I think the same could be said about many top hitters.

I think Kershaw is special. When I think of what type of pitcher, if any, would qualify as a solid, no doubt first-rounder, Kershaw checks all of my boxes.

Dominant stuff? Check.
Multiple years of very high production? Check.
History of health? Check.

He also checks other boxes.

No suspicions of PED use? Check.
Pitches in National League with no DH? Check.
Pitches in a pitcher-friendly ballpark? Check.
Pitches for a team that should win a lot of games with a reliable closer? Check.

I think the odds of Kershaw providing high-ranked performance in ERA, WHIP, Ks, and even Wins is about as high as many first round batters putting up high-ranked performance in four hitting categories.

I'm still evaluating players in preparation of the next drafting season, but I can't even imagine anyone but Kershaw being my #1 pitcher. I also don't think I'll be able to find 15 hitters I like better than Kershaw. It may be tough to find 10 hitters better than Kershaw for fantasy purposes. Sure, I'd rather have Miggy, Trout, Goldschmidt and probably a number of other hitters than Kershaw, but that list of hitters is shorter than in years past, at least for me. Depending on where I draft, I may not have Kershaw on any or many of my teams, but I think he is a very solid first rounder with little to no flaws in his game.

Keep up the interesting posts! They whet my appetite to start drafting again!

Mike

Excellent response, Mike.
If you'll notice, I had to give Kershaw demerits by comparing him to an offensive player or go with category limits.
There is nothing not to like about Kershaw himself.
This will be the first year in a long time where a pitcher has less question marks than most offensive players in the first round.

Kershaw ends up at 6 or 7 on my final 2013 rankings but taking a pitcher in the first round usually is bad buisness. Might would do it in a DC if toward the end of rd 1 but come March no way.


but a definate first rounder in my book would be


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Bama wrote:Kershaw ends up at 6 or 7 on my final 2013 rankings but taking a pitcher in the first round usually is bad buisness. Might would do it in a DC if toward the end of rd 1 but come March no way.


but a definate first rounder in my book would be

kate-upton-gq-outake-photos-3304.jpg

I...I...forgot what I was gonna say.....