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It's great to be drafting early isn't it?
I love how when we draft Pinto, immediately a blurb is shown that Minnesota may sign Pierzynski.
Or we draft Jim Johnson and the Dodgers are interested in him as a set-up guy.
Or the Pirates sign Chris Stewart and non-tender McKenry. I liked McKenry. What has Chris Stewart done for fantasy baseball?
It was a rhetorical question, but I'll answer it myself.
Chris Stewart has done as much for fantasy baseball as Martha Stewart.
McKenry showed po, which is short for potential. Stewart shows poor, which is short for..... poor.
But, I can't spend this post ragging on Chris Stewart. I'm sure he's a good kid and never been to jail, something Martha can't say.

Every rookie, and by rookie, I mean a kid who hasn't even sniffed the Big Leagues, looks great in our draft now.
We can draft Byron Buxton and hope for a call up, most likely though, the best part of his fantasy season is playing in our heads as we draft him.
Those parts of the draft are tough. Do we go for relative reliability of a Rick Porcello?
Or a young buck like Archie Bradley?
That decision tells us a lot about ourselves. Porcello, quite possibly, could be a 16/17 game winner in a serene NL setting.
Bradley could be dominating. Problem is, that most of that dominance could take place at AAA.
It's a roll of the dice either way.

I talked to a friend today about Nelson Cruz. To me, his worth is tied to the team that signs him. If re-signing with the Rangers, his status drops a little due to the PED's, but stays within distance of last year's round.
There have been rumors about him going to the Mets. I told my friend, if that's the case, I don't touch him in any round.
There is not one good thing about a fella coming from a ball park like Texas, from a league like the AL, from a lineup like the Rangers, and landing with the Mets.

Billy Butler hit six homers at Kaufman this year.
If he were traded to a better ball park, he could be a big fantasy guy. As is, he is topping out as an 8-12 rounder in early drafts. If he picked up a glove enough to play 1B, it'd be different, but the ball park and that big 'U' next to his name makes him as appetizing as peas and carrots in a can.

Why did the Mariners sign Willie Bloomquist?
Anybody?
They don't have one kid in their system that can play a few games at different positions, then get hurt like Bloomquist?

Joe Nathan is looking to screw early drafters. If he signs with the Yankees, Robertson owners are screwed.
If he signs with the Rangers, Feliz owners are screwed.
If he signs with the Tigers, Benoit owners aren't screwed, but they're running out of locations in not to be a set-up guy.
These same owners could go through the same ringer with Balfour, or even, gulp, Chris Perez.
Perez, by all rights should move to Colorado.
Weed is legal and high ERA's are acceptable.
Perfect fit.

When kids come up, they usually hit better at home than on the road. Sleeping in their own bed, comfort, more rest, showing off for the home folks....whatever it is, they do.
Last year, I believe Brandon Belt came to the realization, or simply matured, and decided that he was going to hit on the road. A good decision because he plays on a field that kicks his ass. His total of six homers at home last year, was a career high.
He batted .305 and had 11 homers on the road last year. Belt is not a POWER hitter. He's a gap hitter who happens to hit homers..... Like Billy Butler, and like Butler, his home field kicks his ass for fantasy power purposes.
BUT, Belt carries a glove, so even though Butler has done it over a longer period of time, both will be taken in similar rounds in most drafts.

Think ball park has little to do with drafting?
James Loney was taken past the 30th round in really early drafts.
One blurb on RotoWorld had the Rockies interested in Loney.
The next day he was taken in the 16th round of a draft I am in.
He was taken in the 16th round right behind Justin Morneau.
Coincidentally, Morneau was also mentioned as a possibility of coming to the Rockies.
Apparently, that Rocky Mountain High isn't just for Chris Perez.

Things I've noticed in early drafts.....

Nobody believes Travis Wood can do it again.

Nobody is believing in a Beckett comeback.

A lot of drafters are putting stock in AJ Burnett's possible retirement.

Is it his age or the call to Japan that is lowering Kuroda's adp?

Drafters are looking at Puig's body, not his head.

Logan Morrison and Corey Hart are being taken in similar rounds.
I get the feeling that one is a Never Be and the other is an Already Was.

Why draft Jesus Montero?

Why draft ARod?

Archie Bradley, the probable number one pitcher who has yet to throw a Major League pitch is a placeholder?
Seriously?
And the number one prospect, Buxton?
Not very much thought was put into the names listed.
It is not fun for the other 14 drafters to see the dreaded placeholder ChC.
It's almost as bad as drafting a real Cub.
And yet, Chris Stewart has a name prominently featured.
There's a joke in there somewhere.
So far, it's on us.

And if a Jim Johnson owner, a sigh of relief about not going to LA.
Anf if a Navarro owner, a hooray.
And if an Arencibia owner, a 'dammit.'
And if a Fister owner, a small hooray.
And if a Ryan Cook owner, a big 'aw shit'.
And if a Jemile Weeks owner, a 'Hey, this could be good'.
And if you're a Steve Lombardozzi owner, Mrs. Lombardozzi is now not alone.

Welcome back, Dan.

A slight bump up in value for Fister owners with the move to the National League, but a real head-scratcher for Tigers fans. Fangraphs has a nice article on the trade. I agree with its author. Is that all the Tigers could get for Fister, who is a Top 25, if not Top 20, SP? No other team (like the Royals or Twins) were willing to offer the Tigers more? (Guess they would rather pay Vargas, Nolasco and Hughes comparable money and not give up anything.). Methinks the Tigers are just trying to clear salary to sign an outfielder (or Cano and move Kinsler to LF?). We'll see.

Can't understand the A's either, although I guess Beane deserves some leeway. Still, you have no interest in trying to re-sign Balfour, but you're willing to pay about $10 million in arbitration for Jim Johnson? On the same team, I'd rather have Balfour (although Johnson should do OK in Oakland). I'd probably rather have Cook than Johnson even though he lacks experience.

This is already turning into a very interesting off-season.

Mike

On second thought, perhaps the Tigers are just freeing up the money they would have paid to Fister to sign Nathan. That might make more sense. If you put aside the money and the prospects, the Tigers have traded away Prince Fielder and Doug Fister for Ian Kinsler and Steve Lombardozzi. Have to think there is more to come.

Mike

I really like Dombrowski as a GM, always have. And usually, Tigers Management are not afraid of going the extra dollar. So, I will give them the benefit of the doubt that this is for a greater cause. Lombardozzi is a wonderful real baseball player. He'll fill in anywhere, produces when he plays, and does not get hurt.
For some reason, the Tigers are in love with Rick Porcello. Porcello has age and a smaller salary than Fister. At the same time, one would think those factors would make Porcello more tradeable. Which brings us back to Detroit just flat being in love with the kid.
For fantasy purposes, Porcello so far, has been the worst thing one can call a fantasy pitcher....An innings eater.
Both, the Fielder and Fister trades have left Detroit with more money to spend. If they do not now land both Nathan and a top outfielder, it would be a surprise to me. Although Cano is a thought, I think if they were really thinking of going that way, that they wouldn't have gone through the rigamaroll of obtaining Kinsler, only to move him to another position.
Choo would be perfect for them since Kinsler is not a real leadoff hitter.

A small part of me wants Detroit to sign Balfour. It'd be fun to see the media go crazy because Balfour jawed with Tiger hitters, then got taken deep for a three run homer by Torii Hunter in an infamous blown save.
Quiet in this is the bump for Drew Smyly. Smyly was great and has been great for Detroit no matter the role. I felt that Jim Leyland really misused him last year. He was mostly used as a match up pitcher, used in innings with several lefties coming up, instead of long relief or being a swing man.
Although he'll be a sexy pick come March, he has to go through the process of getting his arm stretched out and runs the risks of 'tired arm' or a worse injury next year.

Getting back to the free agents, Detroit losing Fielder leaves them short-changed from the left side of the plate. Only VMart and Avila look to be their only starting left handed options. I believe that is why they tendered a contract to Don Kelly again.
A lineup starting with:

Choo
Hunter
Cabrera
VMart
Kinsler

Looks a lot better than a lineup starting with:

Kinsler
Hunter
Cabrera
VMart
???
Ellsbury could be a fit too, giving the Tigers great coverage in the outfield with Jackson, Hunter, and Ellsbury.
Dombrowski is like the Angels in keeping things quiet. Both the Fielder and Fister trades were sprung on us out of nowhere.
I'm guessing that any free agent signings will be the same.
I like that about the Tigers and Angels. Whether the moves work out or not, they keep things under wraps till they want the news relayed.
The opposite of this approach is the Mets who put out the possible tradings of Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy as if to gauge fans reactions first. It only lowers their trade value in having other GM's KNOW that they would like to trade them.
The Mets trumpet every meeting they have with a free agent as if to tell Mets fans they're trying.


One more thought about the Tigers....
I reckon that AJ Pierzynski or Saltalablahblah would be a good fit for them as well.
Avila is not durable. He's only played over 120 games once in his career and is a below adequate defensive catcher with a great staff throwing to him. Not a good mix.
Despite his lack of games last year, Avila allowed 73 runners to steal last year, the fifth highest among all catchers.
He only nabbed 15. A percentage even worse than that of Carlos Santana.
Really, he is a backup catcher in a starting role.
Pierzynski has a knack of getting a lot out of a staff. The Tigers could use the fire he brings to a team as well.
Salty can hit and stay healthy.
Either would benefit the Tigers.

And now it looks like Pierzynski will be signing with Boston. A good signing for them.
Hard to think of Pierzynski with a beard though.

Greater cause or not Dan, this trade makes no sense. This was not enough for Porcello let alone Fister! What's wrong with having 6 starters, a couple go down every year anyway.

What do you think they could get for him at the trade deadline next year? Everybody gives Dombrowski a pass because he's Donbrowski. In the case of this trade he's DUMBrowski.

Money wrote:Greater cause or not Dan, this trade makes no sense. This was not enough for Porcello let alone Fister! What's wrong with having 6 starters, a couple go down every year anyway.

What do you think they could get for him at the trade deadline next year? Everybody gives Dombrowski a pass because he's Donbrowski. In the case of this trade he's DUMBrowski.

Have to say I agree with this. I get the part about freeing up money to pursue a closer and/or outfielder. Still, it is a very light haul for Fister, who is a top 20-25 SP at a reasonable salary for two years, especially this off-season when there are very few strong SPs available. Lombardozzi is a nice player, but he a utility man, a backup infielder. The two prospects are nothing special, although one is supposed to be pretty good (but not a very high prospect).

The Royals essentially gave up one of baseball's top prospects - Wil Myers - for two years of James Shields. While that was an over-pay, and Fister arguably is a little less accomplished than Shields (although I think folks could argue otherwise), by comparison the Tigers got shafted.

Given the dearth of available starting pitching and so many teams needing starting pitching (Angels?), it is tough to believe that is the best the Tigers could do for Fister. Hell, they probably could have gotten Trumbo for Fister. Stick him in the OF for a year until V-Mart's contract is expired and then move him to DH. He also could back up Miggy at 1B and give V-Mart a breather. Trumbo has the power that would play in Detroit and provide much-needed protection for Miggy in the middle of the lineup. I bet the Royals would have traded Gordon for Fister, which would have given the Tigers an above-average LF. Perhaps I'm over-valuing Fister, but I think the Nationals hosed the Tigers on this deal.

Mike

Wow, you guys think more highly of Fister than I do. He's a nice middle of the rotation guy to me, that's about it.
I think Dombrowski could have gotten more for him too, but he didn't. That tells me he was in a hurry to part with him.
We don't know the reasons, only he does.
Joe, they're not going to carry six starters. It sounds good to you as a fan, but it is as cost efficient as having two toasters.
I do not think even Dayton Moore is dumb enough to trade Gordon for Fister....well, he has surprised me before, so maybe he is....
The Tigers don't want Trumbo in their lineup. They have right handed power.
In Gordon and Trumbo, they're right back to paying out a lot of money.
I think the object here is to save that money for free agent buys.
I have more faith in Dombrowski, I guess. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. And if that other shoe is Choo, ha, that sounds funny, anyway if the other shoe is Choo/Ellsbury and Nathan, it becomes....
Fielder and Fister for Kinsler, Lombardozzi, Choo/Ellsbury, and Nathan.
That is a damned good deal.

There are a lot of "ifs" to your post Dan. The guy I want them to get is Brian Wilson. The Tigers very rarely let information leak out so that is probably not going to happen.

Fisters numbers were solid and he's playoff proven tough. You like him more than you know, last season in an early season slow draft I asked you to make a pick for me as I wasn't prepared and didn't want to hold things up. You chose Fister and took pride in the pick That pick was the right choice!!

Regardless of what comes down the line, they simply reacted to quickly and got the absolute minimum in retrun.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Wow, you guys think more highly of Fister than I do. He's a nice middle of the rotation guy to me, that's about it.
I think Dombrowski could have gotten more for him too, but he didn't. That tells me he was in a hurry to part with him.
We don't know the reasons, only he does.
Joe, they're not going to carry six starters. It sounds good to you as a fan, but it is as cost efficient as having two toasters.
I do not think even Dayton Moore is dumb enough to trade Gordon for Fister....well, he has surprised me before, so maybe he is....
The Tigers don't want Trumbo in their lineup. They have right handed power.
In Gordon and Trumbo, they're right back to paying out a lot of money.
I think the object here is to save that money for free agent buys.
I have more faith in Dombrowski, I guess. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. And if that other shoe is Choo, ha, that sounds funny, anyway if the other shoe is Choo/Ellsbury and Nathan, it becomes....
Fielder and Fister for Kinsler, Lombardozzi, Choo/Ellsbury, and Nathan.
That is a damned good deal.

Dan - Here's a link to what I think is a good article on the trade. Even if your eyes tell you Fister is no more than a middle of the rotation guy, I think the author does a good job of showing why he's better than that, at least according to "numerish stuff" (with which you may disagree): http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/national ... om-tigers/.

Maybe the Tigers don't need right-handed power, but other than Miggy I don't think they have "power" hitters from either side. The Tigers have a lot of guys with some pop (Kinsler, Hunter, V-Mart, Jackson), but other than Miggy, who are you penciling in for more than 20 HR? I think Trumbo has fewer years of service and would cost less than Fister, but I hear what you are saying. If they need that money for Choo and/or Nathan, I agree those guys would be more valuable than Trumbo. Choo would be a great add, and I agree he is a better leadoff hitter than Kinsler. I guess part of the debate depends on how you view V-Mart and whether you think he provides adequate protection for Miggy. I don't think he does. I project A LOT of intentional walks for Mr. Cabrera this season unless they add another power bat to the lineup to hit cleanup.

Yes, I do think Dayton Moore is dumb enough to trade Gordon for Fister.

Mike

I don't think as highly of Doug Fister as the author. I do like Dave Cameron's work though and when I'm in the mood for Numerish, he's almost Zola-like.
He compares Fister to Shields. To me that's like comparing Arroyo to Latos. Arroyo tops Latos in a few categories, but everybody would rather have Latos. Same token, I don't think anybody wants Fister over Shields.

Still, it doesn't take Numerish to know that the Tigers were 'gypped'. Dombrowski is not a stupid man though. He knows he didn't get maximum trade off for Fister. He knows it...and still did it.
What does that tell us?
It tells me that money saved is more important than players earned.
This deal, not only could save enough money along with the Fielder trade to get the players sought after, but there could be the added bonus of re-signing Scherzer to a long contract.
Even Tigers fans would admit that Scherzer is a bigger keep for them than Fister.
Sometimes, it is not about getting the utmost for a player. Sometimes, it is about economics.
I think this is one of those times.

And Bam! It looks like the Tigers are signing Nathan to a two year contract.

As the domino's fall................

DOUGHBOYS wrote: I have more faith in Dombrowski, I guess. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. And if that other shoe is Choo, ha, that sounds funny, anyway if the other shoe is Choo/Ellsbury and Nathan, it becomes....
Fielder and Fister for Kinsler, Lombardozzi, Choo/Ellsbury, and Nathan.
That is a damned good deal.

As far as team impact goes, you can add Smyly the starter to what they got and Smyly the reliever to what they lost which is in part balanced by Krol.

Question 1 -- is the team better after the deal? YES
Question 2 -- could he have gotten more for Fister? Maybe, but he's in the NL thus did not strengthen an AL team for which they will compete against.

Money wrote:There are a lot of "ifs" to your post Dan. The guy I want them to get is Brian Wilson. The Tigers very rarely let information leak out so that is probably not going to happen.

Fisters numbers were solid and he's playoff proven tough. You like him more than you know, last season in an early season slow draft I asked you to make a pick for me as I wasn't prepared and didn't want to hold things up. You chose Fister and took pride in the pick That pick was the right choice!!

Regardless of what comes down the line, they simply reacted to quickly and got the absolute minimum in retrun.

Fantasy and real baseball are like apples and kumquats sometimes, Joe.
That trade would be barred in most fantasy leagues. Fantasy leagues don't have contracts except for KJ's league.
I do like Fister as a fantasy pitcher. At the same time, if Dombrowski is thinking what I'm thinking, Fister is a piece that can be moved with the least amount of damage to the Tigers.
They'll have a lot more to gain from the loss of Fister. It doesn't show up in the transaction, but the more positive ramifications of the trade make it well worth the deal.
On surface, an easy trade to bash.

That certainly didn't take long. The tigers bullpen just got a big upgrade.

The piece that still doesn't sit well with me is Porcello as part of this rotation. In fantasy and real baseball I believe it is important to create an edge wherever and whenever possible. The Tigers had a significant edge in starting pitching. I believe that edge is less significant now.

Now if they sign Choo or Cruz or Beltran, sign me up, I'm on board.

Smyly > Fister

Porcello = Fister

The rotation is overall better.

Porcello and Fister's peripherals are almost identical. Their xERA's were almost identical. Comparing ERA doesn't tell the true story.

Bronx Yankees wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Wow, you guys think more highly of Fister than I do. He's a nice middle of the rotation guy to me, that's about it.
I think Dombrowski could have gotten more for him too, but he didn't. That tells me he was in a hurry to part with him.
We don't know the reasons, only he does.
Joe, they're not going to carry six starters. It sounds good to you as a fan, but it is as cost efficient as having two toasters.
I do not think even Dayton Moore is dumb enough to trade Gordon for Fister....well, he has surprised me before, so maybe he is....
The Tigers don't want Trumbo in their lineup. They have right handed power.
In Gordon and Trumbo, they're right back to paying out a lot of money.
I think the object here is to save that money for free agent buys.
I have more faith in Dombrowski, I guess. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. And if that other shoe is Choo, ha, that sounds funny, anyway if the other shoe is Choo/Ellsbury and Nathan, it becomes....
Fielder and Fister for Kinsler, Lombardozzi, Choo/Ellsbury, and Nathan.
That is a damned good deal.

Dan - Here's a link to what I think is a good article on the trade. Even if your eyes tell you Fister is no more than a middle of the rotation guy, I think the author does a good job of showing why he's better than that, at least according to "numerish stuff" (with which you may disagree): http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/national ... om-tigers/.

Maybe the Tigers don't need right-handed power, but other than Miggy I don't think they have "power" hitters from either side. The Tigers have a lot of guys with some pop (Kinsler, Hunter, V-Mart, Jackson), but other than Miggy, who are you penciling in for more than 20 HR? I think Trumbo has fewer years of service and would cost less than Fister, but I hear what you are saying. If they need that money for Choo and/or Nathan, I agree those guys would be more valuable than Trumbo. Choo would be a great add, and I agree he is a better leadoff hitter than Kinsler. I guess part of the debate depends on how you view V-Mart and whether you think he provides adequate protection for Miggy. I don't think he does. I project A LOT of intentional walks for Mr. Cabrera this season unless they add another power bat to the lineup to hit cleanup.

Yes, I do think Dayton Moore is dumb enough to trade Gordon for Fister.

Mike

I don't think Trumbo would be a deterrent from pitchers walking Cabrera. The two are not close.
The Red Sox had just two 20 homer hitters last year. That's all. Just a lot of good hitters. Smart, methodical, good hitters.
Yes, Fielder offered Miggy protection. At the same time, Fielder-type hitters are few, so the Tigers would have that problem whether it is VMart, Trumbo, or 98 per cent of the other hitters in baseball.
It'll be interesting to see if Miggy extends his zone this year. If I were managing, I'd tell him that the Tigers will take the hit in batting average for a few more swings.
If not, he could challenge Joey Votto in walks.
The Fielder trade has left Miggy as a number one pick in fantasy drafts to only Tigers fans.

ToddZ wrote:Smyly > Fister

Porcello = Fister

The rotation is overall better.

Porcello and Fister's peripherals are almost identical. Their xERA's were almost identical. Comparing ERA doesn't tell the true story.

Are you factoring in Post season numbers Todd? Guys who produce in October do not grow on tree's.

Porcello = Fister? Come on.

I haven't re-upped yet for my masterball subscription. Can you please give us your ranking on these two players. I'd be surprised if you have them ranked in the same zip code.

I'm not much of a numerish guy, but I do like the information you put out.

Greg,

With the die hards drafting already can you give us a sneak at the ADP for Fister and Porcello? They have to be 15 rounds apart at least.

DOUGHBOYS wrote: The Fielder trade has left Miggy as a number one pick in fantasy drafts to only Tigers fans.

You're trying to get me going here Dan.

I have never passed on Miggy in a fantasy draft ever when available. This guy does not need protecting. Comparing him to Votto now? Oh boy.

Simply the greatest hitter of our generation and the NUMBER 1 player on my fantasy board.

Money wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote: The Fielder trade has left Miggy as a number one pick in fantasy drafts to only Tigers fans.

You're trying to get me going here Dan.

I have never passed on Miggy in a fantasy draft ever when available. This guy does not need protecting. Comparing him to Votto now? Oh boy.

Simply the greatest hitter of our generation and the NUMBER 1 player on my fantasy board.

Remind me to kds 2-15, 1 in drafts with Money.

NorCalAtlFan wrote:

Money wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote: The Fielder trade has left Miggy as a number one pick in fantasy drafts to only Tigers fans.

You're trying to get me going here Dan.

I have never passed on Miggy in a fantasy draft ever when available. This guy does not need protecting. Comparing him to Votto now? Oh boy.

Simply the greatest hitter of our generation and the NUMBER 1 player on my fantasy board.

Remind me to kds 2-15, 1 in drafts with Money.

This would be a beautiful thing if you can get the other 10 players in the league to set it the same way.

Money wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote: The Fielder trade has left Miggy as a number one pick in fantasy drafts to only Tigers fans.

You're trying to get me going here Dan.

I have never passed on Miggy in a fantasy draft ever when available. This guy does not need protecting. Comparing him to Votto now? Oh boy.

Simply the greatest hitter of our generation and the NUMBER 1 player on my fantasy board.

HA! I knew that would get you going!
I didn't compare Miggy to Votto. Their walks may turn out to be similar. That's it.
While Votto is doing everything in his power to draw a walk, Miggy will be should be doing everything in his power to avoid one.
Miggy, unquestionably, is the best hitter in baseball.
Votto, unquestionably, is the best walker in baseball.
At the same time, the best hitter in baseball is not always the number one pick in a draft.

Money wrote:Greg,

With the die hards drafting already can you give us a sneak at the ADP for Fister and Porcello? They have to be 15 rounds apart at least.

Probably not. I have done two drafts so far, and the results are quite different but probably not what you'd expect. In Dan's 50-round e-mail draft, they went as follows:

Fister: 13th round
Porcello: 23rd round
Smyly: 31st round

In DC #1, which finished yesterday, they went as follows:

Fister: 16th round
Porcello: 20th round
Smyly: 12th round

(Now that I have been touting Fister in arguing that the Tigers got hosed, I feel like a hypocrite for not abandoning my drafting strategy in DC #1 and grabbing Fister in or before the 15th round! My only defense is I already had 4 SPs and some SPs seemed to go off the board later than expected because RPs were going hot and heavy!)

Remarkable variation in the Smyly picks. Perhaps the 31st round was too late, although I think the 12th round was too early. The kid looks like he has really good stuff, but can he excel as a starter for an entire season?

Mike