New York....New York

[DOUGHBOYS]

Last year, the west coast took over the Hot Stove League. There was talk of a shift to the left coast.
Now, the earth is back on its axis. The Hot Stove is back in focus in New York.

Robinson Cano is looking for umpteen bucks. That was the story going into the off season. It is still the story.
The problem with Cano is that he hired a rookie agent who wants to make a name for himself. I think he'd be better off with Boras to tell the truth. Cano has an agent as interested in getting his own face in front of a camera before his client.
Supposedly, Cano can get an extra year and 40 million dollars more money in Seattle and still lose money if he plays for Seattle.
Seattle is baseball Siberia. Nobody cares what happens in Seattle (And for you that live in the Washington area, that isn't a dis on your area, it's just in a baseball sense, Seattle is a Timex compared to NYC's Rolex.)
Cano is used to being on late night talk shows. Cano is used to endorsements. Cano is used to the limelight.
Maybe Seattle really did offer Cano that money. Their GM is in the same vice that Dayton Moore was in last year. Owners and fans want to see results. When that happens, GM's quit caring about the future and go into 'Save my own ass' mode.
It bought Dayton Moore two more years. Zdurnzyxzz or however we say his name may be trying the same tact.
But mostly, I think it is agent hype to try to get a couple of more million from the Yankees for Cano.

Curtis Granderson is said to be thinking about the Mets. Alan is going to accuse me of being mean to the Mets, but I'll only speak about this in a fantasy sense.
Granderson going to the Mets drops his adp by at least 60 places. There is nothing to like about him going to the Mets.
Bad league, bad ball park, bad lineup. In a word.....yuck!
Granderson's homers were Yankee Stadium friendly. He doesn't run as much. His owners could hardly find a worst place for him to land.

What about Ellsbury?
He could become a younger Grandy with a better average. No way I give him that big of a contract, but that doesn't matter to us baseball fans. It's done.
Fantasy-wise. Ellsbury goes from being late first, early second rounder to an adp in the middle of the first round.
Ellsbury already has a number one pick year under his belt. I can even see him going number one in a couple of drafts to a drafter who has love for the Yankees.

[NorCalAtlFan]

to be fair, seattle probably feels(rightly or not) that they aren't that far off a playoff push. they have the makings of a great staff and with a couple bats, you never know.
but as someone on mlb radio said, they have confederate dollars that no one wants.

agree on granderson, the part about the mutts having a bad lineup. and well, everything else about them quite frankly.

ells #1? did gecko hack your account?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Ellsbury and Trout had two of the greatest fantasy seasons since the NFBC was formed. Trout's circumstances have not changed. He is going number one in drafts because he is young enough to repeat another year like 2012. Although some can reckon that he has already had his career year.
To me, Trout is the perfect fantasy player. He has strength. He has speed. He plays under control. He has a great head.
If he played in Boston, I think Trout could put up historic numbers. But, he doesn't.
There is nothing bad I can say about Mike Trout.
At the same time, if there is one player that I would pick to go 40/40 this year, before yesterday, I would have answered Mike Trout. Now, I would say Jacoby Ellsbury.
Yankee Stadium makes that much of a difference.
This isn't to say that I would take Ellsbury before Trout in a draft. I wouldn't. Ellsbury is brittle and while he is under control MOST of the time, sometimes he lets the drive to make a catch over take common sense in getting hurt.

I can definitely see somebody taking Ellsbury first and throwing injury thoughts out the window.
Especially if one really likes the New York Yankees.

[DOUGHBOYS]

to be fair, seattle probably feels(rightly or not) that they aren't that far off a playoff push.

To be fair, almost every team in baseball feels that way this time of the year.

[NorCalAtlFan]

sooooooooooooo, a guy who has never hit 40, you think might? a guy that has only hit double digits once mind you. this is gecko!
that porch ain't that short!

[DOUGHBOYS]

sooooooooooooo, a guy who has never hit 40, you think might? a guy that has only hit double digits once mind you. this is gecko!
that porch ain't that short!

Same thing could have been said about Curtis Granderson. Yes, it makes that much of a difference.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Is Granderson a double 40 homer hitter anywhere else?

[NorCalAtlFan]

granderson was already a "power" hitter. that's a bad comp.

at new yankee stadium, ells 4 hr in approx 150 ab's. and that was against yankee pitchers!

now he's going to hit 30 plus at home(based on his avg of 7ish road hr's a year) to get to 40?

babe ellsbury i guess.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'm not saying that every left handed hitter who goes to Yankee Stadium becomes a 40 homer hitter. I don't think Cano ever hit 40, and I don't think he ever will.
Cano loves going gap to gap and his swing is not conducive for Yankee Stadium homers.
I do believe that Ellsbury does have that swing. He would rather pull a ball then go to left or with the pitch. I also think he'll see a lot of 'mistake' pitches in that pitchers will not want to walk him to put his speed on the paths.
There are certain swings that match parks perfectly. I'm in the camp that believes Ellsbury's home run numbers will increase significantly.
I did not say he would hit 40 homers. I did say that if I were to bet on one player going 40/40, it would be him.

[DOUGHBOYS]

If wanting to use numbers such as past performance at Yankee Stadium, that's all well and good. Ellsbury can contour his swing now. Something he could not do mid-season.
And if wanting to fight by Numerish, consider that Mike Trout has never hit as many homers as Ellsbury did in a season

[NorCalAtlFan]

let's bet then:P

loser pays for the next premature draft.

and i do get what you are saying, but damn!

btw-not fighting with numerish, i just think youre offbase a bit

[DOUGHBOYS]

let's bet then:P

loser pays for the next premature draft.

and i do get what you are saying, but damn!

btw-not fighting with numerish, i just think youre offbase a bit

What is the bet?
And I only bet in my currency....Doritos.

[NorCalAtlFan]

40-40

[DOUGHBOYS]

40-40

You're not getting it.
I didn't say that Ellsbury WOULD go 40/40. I said that if I had to bet on one player, it would be him.
Even I know that's not a good bet and my IQ is Jethroe Bodine comparable.

[DOUGHBOYS]

If I firmly believed that Ellsbury were going to have a 40/40 season, of course I would put him ahead of Trout.
But, Ellsbury carries more risk. He could go down with an injury, in my mind, way before Trout. That is what keeps him from being a 1/2 pick in most future drafts.

[NorCalAtlFan]

i get it. that's why i asked you to bet.

ye have little faith in your conviction.

[DOUGHBOYS]

i get it. that's why i asked you to bet.

ye have little faith in your conviction.

My conviction has and always been that if one player were to get 40/40 next year, it's Ellsbury.
Same conviction.

If I were to bet on one player hitting 65 homers next year, it would be Chris Davis.
But I won't bet that he will.

Which reminds me....
A friend and I are betting nickels at a Christmas party at a bar on who would be the next person through the door.
We'd bet on color of skin, color of hair, male/female, everything.
I bet that next through the door would be spanish. A person comes in (not spanish) but he's carrying a 'service dog'.
A chihuahua.
We argued the rest of the night over that nickel.

[DOUGHBOYS]

to be fair, seattle probably feels(rightly or not) that they aren't that far off a playoff push. they have the makings of a great staff and with a couple bats, you never know.
but as someone on mlb radio said, they have confederate dollars that no one wants.

It's tough going from Oz to Kansas.

[ToddZ]

Using nothing more than park factors.

Assuming 650 PA

If Ellsbury stayed with Boston, the projection would have been 14 HR. With the Yanks, it is 20.

Something to think about with respect to Ellsbury and being injury prone.

1 - smashed into Adrian Beltre and cracked 4 ribs which were misdiagnosed by Boston med staff
2 - had Reid Brignac fall on his shoulder during a break-up slide at 2B
3 - fouled a ball of his foot

is he injury prone or accident prone?

Is there a difference?

Personally, I'm more leery of guys chronically pulling hammies or obliques than what appear to be more fluke accidents than injuries.

[Bronx Yankees]

Can't see Cano going to Seattle unless they totally blow everyone else out of the water, and even then, it is no sure thing. In addition to losing endorsement opportunities, etc., Cano's family is in the Dominican Republic and the travel distance between going back-and-forth to New York and going back-and-forth to Seattle is big (even when you can buy your own plane). I think the Yankees know Cano does not want to go to Seattle, which is why they are playing hardball. My concern is that the Yankees may have Cano over a barrel, but they have to let him save face if they want him back. He is not going to drop from $310 million to $160-170 million, especially when the Yankees just gave Ellsbury - who has done nothing for the Yankees to date - $153 million. Cano deserves more per year than Ellsbury based on past production (and better health). If the Yankees want Cano, they are going to have to move closer to $200 million, perhaps give him $200 million (or slightly more) if he hits certain targets. In other words, they have to show Cano some love. If not, they may lose him to a place he really does not want to go. Of course, if the Yankees would rather spend the money elsewhere and/or don't have the money to pay Cano, fine, let him walk. But, if they want him back, they need to try to "win" the negotiations without it looking like a slaughter with Cano crawling back to them.

I'm a Yankees fan, but I don't think I'd take Ellsbury in the first half of Round 1, especially near the top. But, I agree with you, Dan, that this is a nice plus to his value in terms of increasing his power. I'm not sure it helps his average (which already is very good) or his runs (which also is very good; not sure the Yankees' lineup will equal Boston's from last year). An increase in power would add RBIs, although it also likely would reduce SBs by some relatively modest amount. Given health concerns and his lack of power (except for 2011), I had him as second round pick (which meant I probably would never have him on my team). I think the move to the Yankees moves him somewhere into the second half of the first round (which may mean I still will never have him on my team). Guess I have to think about this more. Since 2008, his HRs have been: 9, 8, 0 (injured most of year), 32, 4 (injured half the year), and 9. I'm not ready to give him 40 homers, and I'm also not ready to pencil him in for 30 homers in 2014. 20 seems more reasonable in terms of a realistic projection. Maybe I'm wrong. I also have a slight concern that the inviting right field porch causes some players to change their approaches at the plate to try to hit home runs, thereby hurting their batting averages (see Granderson, Teixeira).

In any event, it will be very interesting to see just how high Ellsbury goes in upcoming drafts. All this Hot Stove activity is giving me the itch to draft some more!

Mike

[Bronx Yankees]

Using nothing more than park factors.

Assuming 650 PA

If Ellsbury stayed with Boston, the projection would have been 14 HR. With the Yanks, it is 20.

Hey! That's what I just predicted!

[Navel Lint]

At the same time, if there is one player that I would pick to go 40/40 this year, before yesterday, I would have answered Mike Trout. Now, I would say Jacoby Ellsbury.
Yankee Stadium makes that much of a difference.

[DOUGHBOYS]

HA!
I like that one!!!

[Edwards Kings]

I think Ellsbury will be every bit as successful as another Boston import...not Ruth...Youk!

[DOUGHBOYS]

I think Ellsbury will be every bit as successful as another Boston import...not Ruth...Youk!

If he were from Georgia, you'd think he was a peach