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Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 10:08 am
by DOUGHBOYS
On a fantasy level, we all have our prejudices. The only thing we all have in common is that we like players who contribute heavily in every category. The only problem being that those players are gone after the first round.
One prejudice that amuses me comes from the Numerish Borough of our fantasy society. The Numerish have a thing about strike outs. They don't like them. So, it is no surprise that the Numerish avoid the bullies of baseball.
Adam Dunn embodies everything the Numerish do not like in a player. His home runs come at the cost of batting average due to the dreaded strike outs. It's not limited to Adam Dunn. The Numerish do not enjoy any of these bullies being taken in high rounds of drafts. Nor do they like rookies that are on their way to becoming bullies.

This year, Jay Bruce is being taken in the second round of some drafts. Very close to his teammate and Numerish-beloved Joey Votto.
This does not set well in Numerville.
Jay Bruce struck out 185 times. And only hit .262
What is he doing even close to Joey Votto?

Let's start with a Bruce strength. Literally....his power.
Bruce hit 30 home runs last year. Only 14 players hit 30 home runs last year.
Seven of these players are generally being taken ahead of Bruce in drafts.
Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria, Paul Goldschmidt, and Adam Jones.
Leaving only six others besides Bruce.
David Ortiz is one of those hitters. He is highly approved by the Numerish, but he doesn't have a position.
Worth a drop in roundage for any player.
Brandon Moss hit 30 homers. But few expect a repeat and he is Adam Dunn. It's just that the A's know he's a platoon player, the White Sox don't know that about Adam Dunn. And even at that, Moss only hit .256 as it was.

So, what does that leave us in the way of 30 home run hitters?
It leaves Jay Bruce, Mark Trumbo, Alfonso Soriano, Pedro Alvarez, and Adam Dunn.
That sound you just heard was a collective sigh rising up through Numerville. If the Numerish were Andy Taylor, these five players would be on the 'Most Wanted' posters in the top drawer of Andy's desk.
These five players were all not only in the top 14 of homers, but top 12 in striking out. And it is fantasy blasphemy to think that one of these players could be going in the second round of a draft.
While most of the fantasy community judge players on the batted ball, the Numerish contemplate the unbatted ball.
They know it is six more times likely that Bruce strikes out rather than hit a home run.

But, less strike outs is not a roto category. Homers are. Those drafting a hitter like Bruce know those homers come at the cost of batting average. Still, Bruce is a monster three category player.
30 home runs, 109 rbi, and 89 runs are hard to find.
23rd in runs. 11th in homers, Fourth in rbi.
Every year, a drafter says they can find a player like Bruce in later rounds and every year, they come up short. His shortness on average gives that illusion.
Jay Bruce has had 74 extra base hits the last two years. No other baseball player can say that. Not Trout, not Cabrera, not any first rounder.
Sometimes, we have to give a player his due. Even if he does strike out a lot. Some of the Numerish may splinter and take Bruce in some drafts. They won't be barred from Numerville. Just looked down upon. They won't be saying 'Bruuuuuce! They'll be saying, 'Boooooooo!'And that'll probably last till next year.
That is when the Numerish may have another 'Most Wanted' player in the top drawer of Andy Taylor's proverbial desk.
Wil Myers.
Until then, they'll continue to fight the good fight over Bruce. Myers will be a battle for another day.

Re: Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 6:58 pm
by Bronx Yankees
Let's not forget that over the past four years, Bruce's games played were 148, 157, 155, and 160.

How does that compare to Hanley, Tulo, Cargo, Giancarlo and Longo?

Mike

Re: Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 7:09 pm
by Bronx Yankees
Also, unlike most (but not all) power hitters, Bruce has averaged 8 SBs per year over the last three seasons. Not a ton, but better than the 1 or 2 SBs you get from many other sluggers.

The increase in Bruce's RBIs over the last four years (70, 97, 99, 109) is easy to explain - if the guys at the top of the order get on base, Votto will work out a walk to move them up a base. :lol:

Mike

Re: Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 9:20 pm
by Hells Satans
30 is a pretty arbitrary number. If I'm willing to trade 5 HR for more SB and 20-30 of BA I can get Hunter Pence two rounds later. I make that trade every time.

Re: Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 11:03 pm
by DOUGHBOYS
Hells Satans wrote:30 is a pretty arbitrary number. If I'm willing to trade 5 HR for more SB and 20-30 of BA I can get Hunter Pence two rounds later. I make that trade every time.
Yes, 30 is damned arbitrary, but we love our even numbers.
Bred with Bruce is reliability. Drafters know what they'll be getting. They don't get that reliability with Pence.
At 30 years of age, Pence had career highs in HR's and SB's last year.
I don't like the odds of those same numbers for next year....

Re: Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 5:27 am
by Bronx Yankees
Hells Satans wrote:30 is a pretty arbitrary number. If I'm willing to trade 5 HR for more SB and 20-30 of BA I can get Hunter Pence two rounds later. I make that trade every time.
Just started a draft yesterday. Bruce went at 2(13), while Pence went at 3(9), less than a round later. Given that choice, would you still take Pence? I'd opt for Bruce, but to each his own.

Mike

Re: Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:21 am
by Hells Satans
I'm not a Hunter Pence advocate; was really just using those numbers as an example. 30 is just a random number that's some number more than some other number, and the question is whether the marginal difference is worth the round and the opportunity cost. Maybe it is in some instances. I dont care about the Ks, but he's a below-average run-scorer for a 2nd round pick (doesnt get on base much and Reds have had a poor 6-8), a relative non-factor in SB (can't count on big guys stealing bases as they older; Dunn had better SB from 2002-07), and a negative in BA. Really depends on whether you think you can make those things up later.

But, there is something to be said for locking up a consistent performer early, so I get the appeal.

Re: Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 8:07 am
by DOUGHBOYS
So, Pence was randomly or arbitrarily chosen. Almost everything is done that way.
I'll arbitrarily pick Evan Longoria. Longoria is still being taken ahead of Bruce. He played 160 games last year. His owners can't expect more. He scored two more runs than Bruce, hit only seven points higher, and stole six less bases.
Like you are not a Pence proponent, I am not for/against Longoria, but it's there.
My point, really, was that the Numerish focus a little too much on a batter striking out. I happen to like what Bruce does when he hits a baseball and don't care as much as the Numerish in what Bruce does in his .738 outs average.

The Numerish and his average have made Adam Dunn a bargain. He is being taken anywhere from the 15th to 20th round. To get that kind of home run production at that price point is a boon. There, he is not counted to play everyday on our rosters. He can be a fantasy platoon. He may hit .210 in real life. A chance to hit .250 on our roster.
It's one of the reasons I don't do projections. If not an everyday roster player, every player has a use. It's up to us to use them properly, no matter what numbers the Numerish or others project.

Re: Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 1:27 pm
by ikenbaseball
Hells Satans,

I think your point is valid. One example. In my eyes: Bruce = Trumbo

Both players 250-260 average. 80 runs 35 hr. 100 RBI. some random SB. Both hit clean up in a good hitters park.

Bruce 2-3 rounder
Trumbo 4-5 rounder

To honest, I rather have Trumbo because he's eligible for OF. IMO

Krys

Re: Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 4:43 pm
by DOUGHBOYS
ikenbaseball wrote:Hells Satans,

I think your point is valid. One example. In my eyes: Bruce = Trumbo

Both players 250-260 average. 80 runs 35 hr. 100 RBI. some random SB. Both hit clean up in a good hitters park.

Bruce 2-3 rounder
Trumbo 4-5 rounder

To honest, I rather have Trumbo because he's eligible for OF. IMO

Krys

Trumbo hit .234 last year as more and more shifts started lowering his average.
He now goes to a more pitching rich league. One that Bruce has already become accustomed to.
Trumbo has scored over 66 runs once in his career. If comping Trumbo with another player, fantasy-wise, I would link him closer to Alfonso Soriano than Jay Bruce.
Bruce's numbers are reliable.
Trumbo and Soriano give owners a little bit of an uneasy feeling...

Re: Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 8:28 pm
by ikenbaseball
Doughboy

Maybe your right, and I am wrong. But drafting Bruce in the 2-3 round gives me an uneasy feeling. Good luck.

Krys

Re: Bruce the Boss? Not For the Numerish....

Posted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 8:40 am
by DOUGHBOYS
We'll revisit this thread after the season.
Should be fun.