NFBC Message Boards

I like splits. We can tell as much about a player from his splits as we can with other stats. Some splits are mind boggling. Making no sense at all. Others I feel, are warnings to the fantasy community. Let's visit a few....

This is one of those making no sense at all.....
James Shields home E.R.A. was 4.37 last year. Kansas City if anything, is a pitchers domain. It just didn't seem that way for Shields. Saving his E.R.A. was a road compilation of 2.07
This wasn't just a fluke of a home E.R.A. either. Batters hit .280 against Shields at Kaufman. He pitched more innings on the road (121) than at home (107), yet gave up 12 homers in the pitchers park, only eight on the road.
He had 16 starts in KC last year, he only won three.

Does a player change a swing when at home and on the road?....
Some could accuse Ryan Zimmerman of doing that. Zimmerman had 19 homers on the road last year. Just seven at home.
At the same time, Zimmerman only hit .239 on the road and hit .310 at home. Did Zimmerman go with more of an 'all or nothing' approach on the road? If so, his owners tip their cap and say thanks.

This one is scary since he goes in the first round of most NFBC drafts....
Bryce Harper had two homers in 151 at bats vs. lefties last year..... 2.
What could be worse is that he had 20 homers last year. Nine in April.
That gives him as many homers over the last five months of the season as Conor Gillaspie.

This one makes us wish our Closer would get lit up a little more....
Rafael Soriano's highest E.R.A. came last August. His E.R.A. was a horrible 5.84
So in what month did Soriano have most of his Saves?
You got it.
August........ He saved nine games that month.

Carl Crawford did not steal one base off of a left handed pitcher last year.

This one is knowing the cause, but doing little to lessen the effect...
CC Sabathia was atrocious last year. It seemed like he was getting lit up left and right.
The real story though, was in who was lighting up Sabathia. It seems Sabathia is a very well known quantity in his division.
You see, Sabathia really had a nice E.R.A. when it came to opponents who did not reside in the A.L. East.
His E.R.A. against those teams was 3.49.
Against TOR, BOS, TAM, and BAL, his E.R.A. was 6.12 !

Jose Fernandez did not lose a game at Miami for the hapless Marlins last year.

Well, at least he'll never platoon....
It is said that it is tougher for left handed hitters to hit lefties since there are fewer lefties.
Explain this one then....
Alex Gordon hit .307 vs. lefties... .244 vs. northpaws.

Yu Darvish gives up one extra base hit (16) to right handed hitters, every two games started (32)

Last, this one....
It was said by a poster that getting Mark Trumbo in the third or fourth round was the same or better than getting Jay Bruce in the second or third....Are you sure?
It is amazing to me that Trumbo is even being taken in the same area as Eric Hosmer. Maybe Trumbo should be thought of more as Adam Dunn-like than Jay Bruce-like.
Here's why...
Over the last four months of the season, Mark Trumbo hit .212 and had 22 homers.
Adam Dunn, during that same time, hit .250....and had 22 homers.
Also, over that four month span, Eric Hosmer was hitting .318 and drove in 63 runs.... same as 'power guy', Mark Trumbo.

but that drafter is getting more "value" from Trumbo than the other drafter is with Bruce

NorCalAtlFan wrote:but that drafter is getting more "value" from Trumbo than the other drafter is with Bruce

In the immortal words of Ralph Cramden...."WHY, I OUGHTA...BAM! ZOOM! TO THE MOON!!!!!!"

Kind of feel like I should give Mr. Trumbo some love.

No, I don't think Trumbo is the equivalent of Jay Bruce, who is a better player. I love Bruce's consistency and expect him to provide very strong performance in three categories (HR, R, RBI), chip in 5-10 SBs, and not hurt my BA by any meaningful amount. Throw in great health and you have someone worthy of going in the very late second round through the middle of the third round. He is not necessarily someone I target in that range, but I will take him confidently over other players that may have "bigger" names but are perceived by me to be far riskier selections. I also would take Hosmer over Trumbo every day of the week.

All that being said, Trumbo is, in my opinion of course, a great pick in the late fifth round through middle of the sixth round, where I now have taken him three times. I suspect that come March, Trumbo will be going in the fourth round in many drafts and be gone before the sixth round begins. Trumbo is one of the few players with 30+ HR power who I could see topping 40 HR in any given year. Most such players are taken far earlier in the draft (with some exceptions, e.g., Alvarez, Dunn?). With his power and on a decent team, Trumbo should be in the 90-100 RBI range, with 110 RBI a possibility if things break right. He never will score a ton of runs, but 70+ seems reasonable, if healthy. Finally, while he will not help your BA, neither should he hurt it, or at least not significantly - a .250 BA seems like a reasonable projection.

Finally, the move to Arizona should help. If healthy, he should play every day. His power should increase moving to a more friendly ballpark, and you know he will get pitches to hit right behind Goldy. While he is not the equivalent of Bruce a few rounds later, calling him a poor man's Bruce does seem somewhat apt. He should excel in Bruce's strongest categories (HR, RBI). I think he will do worse than Bruce in all categories, or at least the other three categories (R, SB, BA), but, still, if you are looking for power around the fifth round of a draft, Trumbo makes a solid choice.

Of course, I could be totally wrong, but in that case, some of my DC teams are going to struggle.

Mike

Mike, I'll go five points below 'reasonable' at .245 and I'll take the under and bet a big 'ol bag of Doritos to be awarded the next time we meet at a 'Live' event.
Deal?

Dan - Deal, although if I win, I want Fritos corn chips.

Speaking of live events, I've pretty much decided to take the plunge and go for a Main Event team this year. I hope to be able to finalize that decision by early January. As much as I'd like to meet you and others in Vegas (and eat corn chips ), if I "go live" in 2014, I'm going to the Big Apple. Hopefully, for 2015, I'll make it to Vegas.

Mike

Bronx Yankees wrote:Dan - Deal, although if I win, I want Fritos corn chips.

Speaking of live events, I've pretty much decided to take the plunge and go for a Main Event team this year. I hope to be able to finalize that decision by early January. As much as I'd like to meet you and others in Vegas (and eat corn chips ), if I "go live" in 2014, I'm going to the Big Apple. Hopefully, for 2015, I'll make it to Vegas.

Mike

Fritos, it is.

Excellent decision, Mike.
No matter the venue, a great time is had by all.
You'll love it.