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Pablo Sandoval is in his contract year. According to Rotoworld, he went to Venezuela this winter to get into shape. At first, I was skeptical.
I don't know about you, but typically when I fly home there's food everywhere I go.
I'm not interested in counting calories or going to the gym. So, I tend to come back fatter then before.

But Sandoval posted a photo on Twitter supporting the weight loss and he supposedly told a Venezuelan newspaper that he's lost 42 pounds this offseason.
Ok, I thought. Time to get my eraser(yes I still use a pencil and paper) and move Sandoval up my ranking. I'm thinking sleeper material. I'm projecting him at 300 80 25 100 5.

But wait. Not so fast. A couple of days later, Sandoval wrote on Twitter that he hasn't said anything to anyone about how much weight he's lost so far.
So now, I'm confused. Damn you Rotoworld. Sandoval, your back to 260 50 15 60 1.
I hope Rotoworld was not fibbing about Matt Adams losing 6 & 1/2 pounds over the winter. I don't care where Ervin Santana signs. Rotoworld, give me my daily update of where Brett Tomko is going!

I started thinking about a player's "contract year," and what it means to you and me as fantasy baseball players.
When I look at the free agent class of 2015, I'm using this list as another tool while preparing for the draft. ADP, tiers, projections, players in contract year,etc.

If I was a baseball player and I was in my contract year, I would be putting in a lot of extra effort to get ready for the season.
I'm not going to tour Europe for 3 months in the offseason.
I'm getting a personal chef, a personal trainer, a personal whatever I need to do get the fat contract.
Judging from what I've read, the consensus is that players that are in their contract year do not statistically perform much better then other non-contract years. Of course there are outliners, the Josh Hamilton's of the baseball world.

But to be honest, I'm not necessarily looking for a breakout year from these players in their walk year. That would be nice. But rather, I just don't want them to suck. Sucking sucks for my baseball teams.
I look at this list of players and think there's a good chance that these guys have an average year maybe better. I'll take an average year over a disappointing year.

These potential free agents are going to do their best to stay on the field.
In 2013 Brian McCann was in his contract year. He missed most of spring training and the beginning of April recovering from surgery. Would he have rushed back if he wasn't in his last year of his contract. Probably not. About about Glass Ellsbury last year? Probably not.
The more my hitters stay on the field the more innings they play. The more innings they play, the more AB they'll get. I like that.

In 2012, B.J Upton was playing out this contract. He put up the same average type of numbers as he usually did in the past.
The Braves gave him the big contract, and as most people know, he had a really awful year in 2013. Ditto for Carl Crawford the year before that.

So, who is a potential free agent in 2015 that won't suck.
Hanley Ramirez.
You can learn a lot about a player by the way he handles himself on the field.
This year, he's playing for that big contract. He seems like the kid in school who goofs off, and then crams the night before the test.
I think he'll come to camp in the best shape of his life and stay on the field as much as he can. He knows what is at stake. This guy wants to get paid one last time.
If he has an average year, he'll get a huge contract.
If he has a monster year, he'll get a ridiculous amount of money. If he spends half the season on the DL then he'll probably have to settle for a one year deal and try again next year.

If he does get that 200+ million dollar contract next year, then chances are, I'll never draft him again.
I just don't trust that he'll ever be motivated to stay on the field and play hard again.



Krys

2015 MLB Free Agents

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/2 ... gents.html

Good topic, I've always been a sucker for contract year players myself. It's tiebreaker material for me.

But poor example imo. Only because I expect Hanley to get paid either before the season or sometime during the season. If not, Hanley could spend some time on the DL and have an average to above average year and he's still getting his 200-250M. Someone like Fat Panda tho? Much more important for him to bring his "A" game everyday of the season this year.

And what if Hanley gets paid BEFORE the season starts? Gets his 200M in February. By your deduction, that would mean you would not want to have any part of Hanley for THIS year, no? My belief is that my last statement alone is why people on the other side of the fence don't care about contract situations and will provide evidence that players do not perform any better in a contract year.

I also follow contract year players, chasing the carrot all season, but you have to figure if they can handle the pressure though the whole seasons of playing for their supper(so to speak).Plus if their team knows they can't or won't sign them and they get traded into a pennant race( new kind of pressure).some player will be able to focus and put up career years when playing for the money and most will be focused enough to put up at least a very good to good year compared to their average season.
I agreed that I will stay away from a player that has signed a new big contract with a new team, at least for the first season, 9 out of 10 seem to struggle to live up to that contract and the adjustment to a new team and city.

Increased performance in a walk-year is a myth that has been debunked numerous times. As an aggregate, the numbers the year before a free agent year and the free agent year are the same. Sure, there will be examples of some better (and some worse) but it all evens out and those better and worse are within the boundaries of random distribution.

Matt,
Your right. If Hanley does get that fat contract before the season starts, all bets are off. I would avoid drafting him.
If he gets that contract during the season, then I would be on pins and needles all year waiting for that 1st DL stint or clash with Mattingly.

Baseball is just like any other work enviroment, there are 2 common types of employees. One is the hard worker. The person comes in early, stays late, and never calls out sick. I'll call them the Pedroia's. Then there is the slacker who comes in late holding a D & D coffee, calls out because he has a headache, and leaves early because his cat is sick. I'll call them the Upton's.

A while back I remember Dan writing a post about this type of player.
Hanley is a Upton. You have a dangle a carrot in front of him to motivate him to play, and play hard. That carrot is the big contract, it's like a performance review for the average Joe. When that time of year draws closer, Joe typically doesn't want to do anything stupid that will mess up his raise.

That was the main point of the post. A guy like Colby Rasmus is going try his best to stay on the field and not suck, so he can get his "raise." I don't know, it just makes sense to me.


Krys

Worth a read

http://economics-files.pomona.edu/GaryS ... Agency.pdf

http://digitalcommons.bryant.edu/cgi/vi ... rs_finance