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Drafts are the foundation of a Main Event team.
No more, no less.
We draft our teams and play off that foundation when the regular season begins.
Projections, boasts, and 'hitting numbers' post arrive shortly after drafts.
Silly, really.
April, this April especially, is a reminder that we don't play those 30 players. And with the first injury, projections, boasts, and hitting certain numbers are all rendered null and void.
Josh Hamilton is replaced by J.B. Shuck.
Erasmo Ramirez is dropped for a Closer in Waiting because a Closer on our roster has lost his job.
Project the loss in just those two cases.

Before this year, I was always a proponent of roster construction. I'm beginning to think that roster construction may not be THAT important. I'm re-thinking roster construction because of the anticipation of injury. It's not that I'll be drafting scared. I'll just be drafting for the inevitable.
WHO we draft becomes much more important than if we have a position covered.

Closer runs are now a source of amusement. Participation, only to make us feel better about having two of the damn pitchers.
Pitchers that, for the most part, contribute to one category.
Now, a lot of those Closers are taking up roster space on our bench or just plain dropped.
Chapman, Janssen, Feliz, Veras, Fields, Brothers, Jones, Johnson, Frieri, Farquhar, Grilli, Henderson, Parnell.
These fellas were all selected with the thought that they would be closing games. They may as well be closing bars.

If I were devious and collusion would not bother my conscience, there is one way I would cheat in an NFBC Main Event.
I feel that in most drafts, Closers are taken way too early.
I would approach each of the 14 other drafters and ask for a gentlemans agreement.
After the so-called best Closers (Kimbrel, Chapman, Holland, Jansen, Rosenthal) are taken off the table, no Closer can be chosen till the 15th round.
It'd make it easy on us as drafters and place Closers more closely to where they really belong.
It would also give that draft a leg up on all other drafts who start their Closer runs as early as the ninth round.

I snicker when a team is posted and it is pointed out that the team may have problems because of just one Closer.
So?
We are a hobby of moving parts. One Closer this week, may turn to three Closers next week. Two Closers last week, may have turned to none this week.
It's the nature of our beast.

The player rated last in player ratings is Carlos Santana. He ranks behind some players who haven't had an at bat this season. Which means his batting average drag to a fantasy team, does not make up for the homer or rbi and runs accumulated.
This illustrates two things.
That anything can happen.
And more importantly, just how early in the season we are.
If Carlos Santana is the worst player in baseball, baseball should be a lot of fun to watch this year.
We're also knee jerkers though. Santana would probably be had in the 10th round if we drafted today. Jose Abreu could be a first rounder, and at worst, a second round pick.
We know it's early, but we also follow trends. Long gone are the questions of whether Abreu could hit for power and average in America. During drafts, Abreu was never a thought before Yasiel Puig. And never taken before Puig. Puig was a semi-proven commodity.
Within a month, Puig looks like the girl next door and Abreu, the girl with big breasts and revealing sweater.
Sexy changes fast in fantasy baseball.

There are two first round players in the top 30 player rater.
Two.
Ryan Braun and Mike Trout.
This also illustrates two things.
ADP is stupid.
And more importantly, just how early in the season we are
Unless we expect players like Aaron Harang, Scott Kazmir, Jason Hammel, and Melky Cabrera to remain the best players all year.
Raise your hand if thinking that'll happen. I didn't think so.
For April, Charlie Blackmon reigns supreme as the best player in fantasy baseball.
That's right, Carlos Santana is the worst, Charlie Blackmon the best.
In a salty word, projectionists, boasts, and 'hitting numbers' drafters are screwed.
Chris Dickerson was the sexy pick in late rounds. Blackmon, not chosen in most drafts.

There is only one player in baseball that can be counted on.
A player that magically keeps a starting gig each year.
A player who is seldom drafted.
A player who is hardly bid on in faab, even if lucky enough to Win a game or have great peripherals for even two or three games in a row.
Thank you, Kevin Correia.
In a hobby where everything can be topsy turvy, you maintain your mediocrity. You go above and beyond the call of duty. If a fantasy roster is wiped out due to injury or calls to the minor leagues, you still do not become a thought to fantasy players.
No other starting pitcher can say that.
You pitch in a poor division, on a poor team, and in a pitchers park. It all doesn't matter.
Your splits are simply of no importance.
At some point, suckiness overcomes all stats.
You are hit on more than Kate Upton.
A player only hitting a single is a moral victory for you.
Kevin Correia has three pitches.
1. Hittable
2. Very hittable
3. His out pitch.
On average, he throws his out pitch 14 times a game.
Yes, I made that stat up, but it's probably close
If throwing his out pitch too much more, he wouldn't be Kevin Freakin Correia.
I love you, Kevin Correia.
In a game that changes from year to year,month to month, week to week, and day to day, you are the constant.
Please, for the love of our game, never change.

Dan: At least Kevin Correia knows who he is, which is more than can be said for certain players in this crazy game.

There is at least one more mediocre starting pitcher that I mentally placed in the dung heap along with Correia and others. This guy, who is closing in on his 36th birthday, was a crappy 5-12 last year with a 5.40 ERA. From 2010-2013, his K/9 was consistently lousy: 6.61, 6.54, 6.56 and 7.10. His WHIP from 2010-2013 also was not exactly the stuff dreams were made of: 1.59, 1.37, 1.40 and 1.35.

Of course, a little change of scenery and voila, this "stud" currently is 3-1 with an 0.85 ERA. He's whiffing guys to the tune of 9.38 K/9 with an teeny, tiny 0.88 WHIP. And no, I do not have Aaron Harang on any of my teams (but, incredibly if you asked me a month ago, I sure wish I did).

I know it's early and he cannot maintain this pace, but where the hell did this come from? Doesn't Aaron Harang know he's Aaron Harang? Have the Braves covered up all of the mirrors in the locker room and the hotel rooms on the road?

When I rank players, I do take their teams and ballparks into account. At this time, however, I am wondering whether I give those factors enough weight. Should I just draft any damn starter the Braves decide to throw out there? Didn't they make freakin' Freddy Garcia look good last year? And really, is there a reason not to own a Rockies outfielder (unless their last name is Stubbs)? Should I simply stop drafting Royals? (That's rhetorical; I know I should.)

I don't blame you for loving Kevin Correia - he is an island of predictability in a crazily unpredictable season.

Mike

Good stuff, Mike.

Correia is also like an old carpet in a seldom used room. He has become part of the Twins landscape. That carpet is in little danger of being thrown out, much like Correia.
In short, he has reached for and found the acceptable depths and level of suckitude.
Acceptable sucktitude is hard to get away with. Especially over a nine year career.
His last five years, he has not had an ERA below 4.00
For his career, he has never won more than 12 games.
He has never thrown 200 innings.
He has never struck out even 150 hitters.
So in short, his best attribute is that he is not an innings eater.
Usually, when a pitcher is not a winner, innings eater, or really, does not even keep his team in many games, he is discarded.
Not Correia.

Correia has an amazing streak going-
In July, the Twins won one game of five Correia starts
In August, the Twins won one game in five Correia starts
In September, the Twins won one game in five Correia starts
Now, in April, the Twins have won one game in five Correia starts.

Nobody, but nobody can, take sucktitude to that extreme and have absolutely no talk of losing their job.
Correia is a chameleon. He blends in as a Twins pitcher.
Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, Correia, and Pelfrey.
The talk centers on the failings of Hughes and Nolasco and the hopes that are with Gibson. Pelfrey is a rental.
Correia flies under this radar.
Nobody loses more comfortably than Kevin Correia.

Harang, Arroyo, and others have all been winners.
Correia goes for 10 year retirement status next year, without all the trouble of ever being a winner.
He has delivered on his promise. Because he never made any.
He is also as good as everybody thought he would be. So, he is living up to expectations.
And above all, he is consistent. More so than maybe any other pitcher in baseball over the last four months.
Kevin Correia is the Sue Heck of baseball.
I love Kevin Correia.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:ADP is stupid.

ADP doesn't make us look stupid. Baseball players make us look stupid!

Edwards Kings wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote:ADP is stupid.

ADP doesn't make us look stupid. Baseball players make us look stupid!

Ha!
I don't agree though.
We get caught up in trying to look too smart sometimes. I took Tanaka in the fourth round of a draft. I was hit with the "TOO SOON!!!" cat calls from other players.
Is it?
Tanaka will probably be a second or third rounder next year, while 'acceptable' 4th round players like Craig, Hosmer, or others will not.
Cheating adp has become a practice of cheating ourselves.
Taking Tanaka or Abreu early pays larger dividends than claiming 'value', with Craig or Hosmer beyond the fourth round.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Tanaka will probably be a second or third rounder next year, while 'acceptable' 4th round players like Craig, Hosmer, or others will not.

A little early to throw Hosmer into the "over-drafted" group in my opinion. He is hitting pretty well (.295) just hasn't produced power/speed yet. Last year he went .250 0-homers in April and followed that up with a .269 1-homer May. He went on to hit .318 with 16-HRs the rest of the season. He is off to a better start this year then last. I am hopeful the power will come around. I own 1 share (out of 3 teams) of Eric Hosmer this year.

If I was an Allen Craig owner, I would be a lot more nervous.

Hosmer is not a power guy. If having to compare him to another player, in a fantasy sense, it would be Manny Machado.
200 Hits would not be a surprise. 25 homers would.
ADP had him wrong.
He's closer to a hitter like James Loney than a hitter like Adrian Gonzalez.
That sounds like a slap in his face, but it's not. ADP'ers like promise. Hosmer's promise put him in the fourth round.
Both Loney and Hosmer will hit homers in the teens, have several rbi, and a good average.
Of course, Hosmer has more promise, but promise does not fill our five hitting categories.

Dan: Chalk this one up under the "you can't make this shit up" category.

I have Taylor Jordan on a bunch of DC teams. Early report from today had Jordan scheduled to make a start this week even though the Nats only have five games scheduled. I drafted Jordan late in the hopes that, if and when given a shot, he would succeed better than he has to date. Oh, well. Anyway, the starting pitchers on one of my DC teams have been decimated by injuries and so I had decided to start Jordan when finalizing my starting lineups. Fast forward a few hours. I was busy most of the evening and was just catching up on what I missed today. After getting the scores, I checked Rotoworld. It published a note that, contrary to the prior report, Taylor Jordan was being sent down to the minors and that the Nats had decided they can do without a fifth starter until Fister returns next week. OK. Time to bench Jordan, which I can do because the Nats don't play until tomorrow. Let's see if I have any decent options.

Well, maybe you guessed it. The only starting pitcher I have left that isn't locked yet is ... Kevin Correia. I took him late, partially ignorant to the full extent of his suckitude, and this is the only team I own him. He's never made it off my bench so far, thankfully. Thus, my options at this late date are to start: (a) Taylor Jordan, who will be sent to the minors and not pitch; (b) Doug Fister, Brandon Beachy or Chad Billingsley, who are hurt and will not pitch; (c) Jared Burton, a relief pitcher with a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP to date; or (d) Kevin Correia, starting at home against the Orioles without Chris Davis. Every other pitcher either already is starting or has locked for the week.

Quite the dilemma. My first instinct is to take a zero for the week and avoid the risk to my ratios. Then, my gut started advising otherwise. Do I really want a zero from a pitching slot now, in late-April/early-May? Is taking a zero too great a temptation to the fantasy gods? If I select an injured or minor league pitcher over Correia, don't the odds on him making his best start of the year this week go up exponentially? Minnesota mostly is a decent pitcher's park (although how one can tell with that rotation is a mystery). The O's definitely are less dangerous without Davis. Anyway, I now have Kevin Correia scheduled to start for one of my DC teams. I have all day tomorrow to come to my senses and bench him. I'm too tired to think about this any more but, when I saw what happened to one of my DC teams, I had to post about my dilemma.

Mike

That is great stuff, Mike.
You know you're screwed whichever way you go

If the last four months are an indicator, there is a 20 per cent chance that the Twins will win the game. The good thing is, as you mentioned, Chris Davis will be out of the lineup, and opposing Correia, unless there is a postponement will be Ubaldo Jimenez who has sucktitude of his own.
Tough decision.
If under threat of life and limb, I might roll with Correia...Then brace myself for a spanking from the fantasy Gods for defying them.

Bronx Yankees wrote:Dan: Chalk this one up under the "you can't make this shit up" category.

I have Taylor Jordan on a bunch of DC teams. Early report from today had Jordan scheduled to make a start this week even though the Nats only have five games scheduled. I drafted Jordan late in the hopes that, if and when given a shot, he would succeed better than he has to date. Oh, well. Anyway, the starting pitchers on one of my DC teams have been decimated by injuries and so I had decided to start Jordan when finalizing my starting lineups. Fast forward a few hours. I was busy most of the evening and was just catching up on what I missed today. After getting the scores, I checked Rotoworld. It published a note that, contrary to the prior report, Taylor Jordan was being sent down to the minors and that the Nats had decided they can do without a fifth starter until Fister returns next week. OK. Time to bench Jordan, which I can do because the Nats don't play until tomorrow. Let's see if I have any decent options.

Well, maybe you guessed it. The only starting pitcher I have left that isn't locked yet is ... Kevin Correia. I took him late, partially ignorant to the full extent of his suckitude, and this is the only team I own him. He's never made it off my bench so far, thankfully. Thus, my options at this late date are to start: (a) Taylor Jordan, who will be sent to the minors and not pitch; (b) Doug Fister, Brandon Beachy or Chad Billingsley, who are hurt and will not pitch; (c) Jared Burton, a relief pitcher with a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP to date; or (d) Kevin Correia, starting at home against the Orioles without Chris Davis. Every other pitcher either already is starting or has locked for the week.

Quite the dilemma. My first instinct is to take a zero for the week and avoid the risk to my ratios. Then, my gut started advising otherwise. Do I really want a zero from a pitching slot now, in late-April/early-May? Is taking a zero too great a temptation to the fantasy gods? If I select an injured or minor league pitcher over Correia, don't the odds on him making his best start of the year this week go up exponentially? Minnesota mostly is a decent pitcher's park (although how one can tell with that rotation is a mystery). The O's definitely are less dangerous without Davis. Anyway, I now have Kevin Correia scheduled to start for one of my DC teams. I have all day tomorrow to come to my senses and bench him. I'm too tired to think about this any more but, when I saw what happened to one of my DC teams, I had to post about my dilemma.

Mike

And now I love Kevin Correia too!

(I sure hope I don't piss off the Fantasy Gods by shipping his ass back to my bench next week.)

Mike