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I am already knee deep in trying to figure out what player goes where in next years draft. The Pre-Mature E-Draftulation draft that begins with the last pitch of this season is approaching fast. Of course, there will be movements up the draft board like Hamilton, Dee Gordon, N Cruz, Abreu and others.
But, who are the droppers?
Here are a few.....

.319/41/5/45/5
.311/34/6/27/4
These are similar stats from players who play the same position. The difference being is that the first player was taken in the first round. The other was hardly selected at all.
They are Robinson Cano and Scooter Gennett.
Cano is no longer a dominant player at his position.
He is only in the top five of two categories among 2b, Avg. and rbi.
He still hits in the middle of a lineup. Something that most 2b do not. That alone, should keep his draft position for 2015 high.
At least it has for Dustin Pedroia.
But, Cano falls in 2015. Fantasy players are attracted by hr/sb. Cano has a 5/5 midway through the 2014 season.
152 players have more homers. 85 have more steals.
Cano drops, but it won't be a free fall. There will be those that see Cano as just getting his feet wet in Seattle. Or see it as just an off year.
I feel Cano drops to the bottom of the second round as his high mark and the fourth round as his low.

Chris Davis.
I've heard several reasons for Davis not being 'Crush' this year.
He's off the juice. He's hiding injury. Pitchers have 'figured him out'.
What floored me from his 2013 season is that he hit .286
The man only hit 71 singles. He had 96 extra base hits.
He outdoned Adam Dunn!
I never expect Davis to hit even close to .286 again.
He had a magical year.
It's over.
Adam Dunn descended slowly in fantasy drafts when it was apparent that he was an all or nothing power hitter. The same will happen with Davis. His stats scream for him to be taken in a double digit round next year.
But, at least one in 15 of us will be thinking like Dennis Rodman....Rebound.
Davis will fall to the fourth round as a high selection. The seventh as a low.

.290/44/11/46/8 are really nice stats. But, we expect more out of a first rounder. Especially out of a guy who was the average number eight overall pick.
If this is Ryan Braun without PED's (we never really know), I would rate him as above average as a player.
Not, a Superstar.
Braun is on his way to having the least amount of home runs and rbi in his career. That is, except for last year, a lost year for Braun.
Some will say that it was injury that slowed him down this year.
Too bad!
When/if getting off the juice, injury comes with the territory. Like mortals.
Two things can happen to Braun before next season commences.
He could cheat again. It would bring back the adulation and cheers that he has missed this year. It could also please his owners and put him in the running for an MVP for 2015.
My personal feeling is that Braun has been using his whole career, beginning with going to school at Miami.
I also believe he is off them now. The ball no longer zings off his bat as it did before.
The second choice is that Braun could go on as Clark Kent. A mild mannered player without powers far above others.
Either way, he gets paid.
Braun's .290/44/11/46/8 is very close to that of another player. He is, perhaps, the total opposite of Braun. A man who is not afraid of being seen as a dork. A man whose ego does not arrive in the room, before he does. A vegan, who would never put anything like PED's in his body.
Hunter Pence.
Pence has a line of .293/58/11/30/7.
Pence was the 48th player taken, on average, by NFBC players last year.
Braun's drop will not be that significant.
His owners can hope that he goes back to his old ways (You have to love America!).
Braun will drop out of the first round though.
The second round will be his high for next year, the third round or maybe even fourth round, if he gets injured again, will be the low.

One more thing....
I know Miguel Cabrera has good counting stats this year. But, I feel it is the beginning of the end of his domination atop draft boards. Most of his home runs this year qualify as 'Just Barely's'. He seems more of a gap to gap hitter than a power hitter this year.
Some believe that doubles turn to home runs. I believe more, that home runs turn to doubles.
Cabrera is leading baseball in doubles.
Cabrera may still be the best hitter in baseball. But, he is no longer one of the best power hitters in baseball.
It could be remnants of his injury from last year. I think it is. And that it has had a lasting effect.
Does Cabrera fall next year?
Maybe a little, but not much.
He is still a good enough hitter to almost guarantee a .300/100/100 season.
But as said before, fantasy owners are attracted by the hr/sb categories.
Cabrera has had consecutive 44 home run seasons.
Cabrera could see himself falling from the best four category player on the planet to the best three and a half category player on the planet.
Cabrera will still be a top five pick. But, I do believe his days of being the number one Overall pick in a Main Event are over.


ps- That is, unless Joe gets first pick in a Main Event League next year.......

Good Stuff Dan - Welcome Back

Great list, Dan. As much as it pains me to say this because he is on my Main Event team, but this might be David Wright's last year as a second (or third, or fourth?) round pick. The HR/SB stats are slipping, health still is somewhat of a risk (and may get worse with another year of wear and tear), and even an above-average BA no longer seems certain. I'd also put Longoria on the list, as the power has not been there to justify a high-round pick given an average BA and no speed. Of course, Longoria is the type who can hit 10 HR over two weeks, but I'm not seeing it this year. While some 3Bs are dropping for next year, and I'm not totally on the bandwagon yet, I have to give some love to Todd Frazier. He's hitting for power and stealing bases, and seems on track for a 20/20 season with a decent/good BA. Have him on several teams and was hoping for some bounce back this year, but I did not see this source of speed coming.

Should be a lot of falling among SPs next year. I'm done with Verlander, and what's up with Strasburg? Must confess I thought Strasburg's big issues were health and the seeming inability to go deep into games like established studs (see Wainwright). Didn't expect Strasburg to be pretty healthy AND pretty mediocre. Crazy game. Welcome back, Dan.

Mikeq

Agreed Mike.
Longoria has only hit over .270 once during the last four years. It looks like the .260's are his 'comfort zone'.
And you're right that Longoria can 'go off' and hit a boat load of homers, but I don't think his owners are really expecting it.
With teammates not having a stellar year, a .260's power hitter is forced to generate stats by hitting solo or two run homers and so far, Longoria has failed.
Wright has stayed healthy once in the last four years. Next year, he'll be 32. With longer fences during the last six years, Wright has hit over 20 homers only twice. 29 in '10, 21 in '12. During the last four years, he has not had 100 runs, nor 100 rbi, nor 20 stolen bases.
In my mind, Wright not only will drop, but really, he should have never been considered a second round pick this past year.
Teammates and ball park, along with Wright's own brittleness have conspired to make him fool's gold in top rounds.

I don't talk much about where pitchers should go. This year, I took Jose Fernandez in every draft I could. And though I was right about the talent, he caught the Tommy John virus that goes around, which rendered him as a somewhat wasteful pick.
For me, I'll take in that David Wright has been hurt three of his last four years. Sometimes, a ball player like Wright will over compensate one part of his body to assist healing, while unknowingly, put pressure on another part of his body, making him susceptible to more future injury.
With pitchers and the Tommy John virus, we can't think that way. It's just a small part of the pitchers body and the pitcher has a long time to work himself back without much fear of straining another part of the body.
In other words, the Tommy John virus does not count in a pitcher being 'injury prone'.

As for Strasburg, I personally think part of his problems are mental. Maybe it's just me, but it seems like he has a little 'give up' in him when hitters reach base via a cheap hit or walk. It seems to mess with him, then he makes mistakes with his pitches leading to big innings. If correct, it's a problem that can be fixed with either experience or a good pitching coach.
But, there may be a larger problem that has a little less to do with Strasburg.
The Nationals, themselves, are inhibiting Strasburg. They say they're not babying Strasburg, but it is hard to find an ace on another staff who has thrown 100 pitches just six times. Part of the fault lies with Strasburg himself. He seemingly treads water in throwing a lot of pitches and when putting that together with Nationals Management limiting him, it's not surprising that Strasburg has only seen the eighth inning one time this year.
One more alarm about Strasburg. His stuff should translate anywhere. Still, his E.R.A. is over 5 on the road.
He turns 26 years old in a few days. Sometimes we forget that he is a young pitcher. We buy the arm, hoping the head will catch up.