The Opposite of Numerish
Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:52 am
We all love numbers. It's why we play this crazy game. I like numbers, but I'm not much good at Numerish.
It seems, sometimes, that we dig a little too hard in trying to unearth numbers concerning a player.
In fact, going the opposite way is more fun.
The opposite would be making up numbers. It won't help our fantasy teams, but reminds us of the folly in applying numbers to a hitter who had a bug fly in his eye as the pitch was approaching....BUG/BB/K rate?
Here are some made up numbers....
If being outbid in FAAB on a hot prospect, and coming in second place, that hot prospect's chance of success rises 60%.
Whenever our FAAB bid is more than $5o more than the second place bid, that player has a 79% chance of failure.
If a hitter has 33 at bats, has struck out 12 times, and has five hits, his k rate is abysmal.
If a hitter has 33 at bats, has struck out 12 times, and has 12 hits, his k rate is acceptable.
There is an 80% chance that Joey Votto never runs to catch a plane, he walks.
There is an 85% chance that if seeing a 'spaz' in right field, you are watching the Giants.
The other 15% are watching the Dodgers.
Very few of us think of the leadoff hitter as a 'fluffer'.
100% of leadoff hitters would not like to be classified as a fluffer.
A bad leadoff hitter is a bad leadoff hitter. A bad fluffer can still be good.
There is a 75% chance that a pitcher does not want to see his catcher walking out to the mound.
Bob Gibson, turning around and seeing Tim McCarver on HIS mound asked, "WHAT CAN YOU TELL ME THAT I DON'T ALREADY KNOW?!"
Later, 80% of baseball fans would ask McCarver the same question through their tv sets.
Over the past year, the chances of Yasiel Puig missing his cutoff man went from 85% to 82%.
Don Mattingly says he's still learning.
Aren't we all?
A perfect game in real baseball is 27 up, 27 down.
A perfect game in fantasy baseball is 27 up, 27 k'd.
There is still a 25 % chance that the owner of that pitcher would be disappointed because his Closer did not get a shot at a Save.
There is a 5% chance that Joey Votto learned how to walk two days after birth.
There is a 50% chance that we will 'forgive' a prospect like Greg Polanco for not fulfilling promise over a half year.
There is less than a five percent chance that we will 'forgive' a prospect like Brett Lawrie for not fulfilling promise over two years.
It takes 50% of us longer to believe our eyes.
OR, we treat them like children. Scold the younger ones, spank the older ones.
There is lessthan a .0001 chance that Adrian Peterson is reading this.
There is a 99% chance that those thinking the Upton Bros. would 'push' each other, once on the same team, do not now agree with themselves.
Alfonso Soriano retired. A great fantasy player and a good baseball player.
Still, when thinking of him, 65% of us have a minds eye of him lunging for a curve ball a foot outside.
Seventh game of a World Series.
In the past, for the Royals, it would have been Bret Saberhagen. For the Giants, Juan Marichal.
Even this year, a Shields-Bumgarner matchup would have 90% of us happy.
100% of us want to see the best for a seventh game.
We get the pitch count match up of Guthrie vs. Hudson.
.001% of us thought that that was the best.
The media is headlining that ARod used steroids.
99.9% of us knew that.
Tim McCarver is part of the media.
What would you say about a guy who hit .352?
What would you say about a guy who hit .143?
Both are the same player.
The first batting average is what the fella hit early in the count (0-0, 0-1, 1-0 counts)
The second is what he hit on any other counts.
The player is BJ Upton.
Which makes 90% think that Fredi Gonzalez is even dumber than first thought.
"Work those counts, BJ , that's why you're at the top of the order!"
Giancarlo Stanton had a wonderful season. He hit 37 home runs.
How does another guy hit 37 homers, yet get little love?
First, play for Houston.
Second, don't play a position more than dh.
Third, suck at everything else, besides hitting home runs.
91% think of Chris Carter as Adam Dunn.
81% can't wait to start drafting again.
65% will be disappointed with the pace of slow drafts.
98% little will be done to change that.
It seems, sometimes, that we dig a little too hard in trying to unearth numbers concerning a player.
In fact, going the opposite way is more fun.
The opposite would be making up numbers. It won't help our fantasy teams, but reminds us of the folly in applying numbers to a hitter who had a bug fly in his eye as the pitch was approaching....BUG/BB/K rate?
Here are some made up numbers....
If being outbid in FAAB on a hot prospect, and coming in second place, that hot prospect's chance of success rises 60%.
Whenever our FAAB bid is more than $5o more than the second place bid, that player has a 79% chance of failure.
If a hitter has 33 at bats, has struck out 12 times, and has five hits, his k rate is abysmal.
If a hitter has 33 at bats, has struck out 12 times, and has 12 hits, his k rate is acceptable.
There is an 80% chance that Joey Votto never runs to catch a plane, he walks.
There is an 85% chance that if seeing a 'spaz' in right field, you are watching the Giants.
The other 15% are watching the Dodgers.
Very few of us think of the leadoff hitter as a 'fluffer'.
100% of leadoff hitters would not like to be classified as a fluffer.
A bad leadoff hitter is a bad leadoff hitter. A bad fluffer can still be good.
There is a 75% chance that a pitcher does not want to see his catcher walking out to the mound.
Bob Gibson, turning around and seeing Tim McCarver on HIS mound asked, "WHAT CAN YOU TELL ME THAT I DON'T ALREADY KNOW?!"
Later, 80% of baseball fans would ask McCarver the same question through their tv sets.
Over the past year, the chances of Yasiel Puig missing his cutoff man went from 85% to 82%.
Don Mattingly says he's still learning.
Aren't we all?
A perfect game in real baseball is 27 up, 27 down.
A perfect game in fantasy baseball is 27 up, 27 k'd.
There is still a 25 % chance that the owner of that pitcher would be disappointed because his Closer did not get a shot at a Save.
There is a 5% chance that Joey Votto learned how to walk two days after birth.
There is a 50% chance that we will 'forgive' a prospect like Greg Polanco for not fulfilling promise over a half year.
There is less than a five percent chance that we will 'forgive' a prospect like Brett Lawrie for not fulfilling promise over two years.
It takes 50% of us longer to believe our eyes.
OR, we treat them like children. Scold the younger ones, spank the older ones.
There is lessthan a .0001 chance that Adrian Peterson is reading this.
There is a 99% chance that those thinking the Upton Bros. would 'push' each other, once on the same team, do not now agree with themselves.
Alfonso Soriano retired. A great fantasy player and a good baseball player.
Still, when thinking of him, 65% of us have a minds eye of him lunging for a curve ball a foot outside.
Seventh game of a World Series.
In the past, for the Royals, it would have been Bret Saberhagen. For the Giants, Juan Marichal.
Even this year, a Shields-Bumgarner matchup would have 90% of us happy.
100% of us want to see the best for a seventh game.
We get the pitch count match up of Guthrie vs. Hudson.
.001% of us thought that that was the best.
The media is headlining that ARod used steroids.
99.9% of us knew that.
Tim McCarver is part of the media.
What would you say about a guy who hit .352?
What would you say about a guy who hit .143?
Both are the same player.
The first batting average is what the fella hit early in the count (0-0, 0-1, 1-0 counts)
The second is what he hit on any other counts.
The player is BJ Upton.
Which makes 90% think that Fredi Gonzalez is even dumber than first thought.
"Work those counts, BJ , that's why you're at the top of the order!"
Giancarlo Stanton had a wonderful season. He hit 37 home runs.
How does another guy hit 37 homers, yet get little love?
First, play for Houston.
Second, don't play a position more than dh.
Third, suck at everything else, besides hitting home runs.
91% think of Chris Carter as Adam Dunn.
81% can't wait to start drafting again.
65% will be disappointed with the pace of slow drafts.
98% little will be done to change that.