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We care about batting average. Maybe not as much in the past. Still, it is one of the 10 categories that we consider when drafting. Some, have told me that they do not consider batting average at all anymore. With hitting in general falling over the past few years, they consider home runs and how it helps instantly in two other categories, before average.
Is this verdad though?
Let's look at a couple of players....

Gregory Polanco was last year's wonderkid. Baseball fans were screaming at the Pirates. Deploring them for saving money in keeping him down on the farm instead of bringing him up to the Bigs for everybody to see.
Polanco was tearing it up in the Minors and fantasy owners who drafted him wanted to see the benefits!
Was he tearing it up?
Here are his numbers in the minors in 2014 with 274 at bats......328/51/7/51/16
Fantasy players could not expect the same return in rbi since he was hitting in a prime spot in the lineup. Still, they were hoping for much the same on all other stats when being called up.

When Polanco was called up, owners rejoiced. But, at the end of the year, they felt gypped. Polanco had not come through for them. A possible savior turned out to be a benchable quantity.
Was he that bad?
Lets look at his MLB numbers with a similar 277 at bats........235/50/7/33/14
Most of the numbers are similar to his minor league days....except for that batting average.
If Polanco had hit even .270, I believe his ADP would be in the top five rounds of DC Drafts.
Instead, Polanco is going in the tenth round with an ADP of 140.
A full round behind Wil Myers who hit .222 last year and was sent to the Alcatraz of Major League ballparks.

Batting average also works the other way. We'll think more of a player who hits for a higher average.
Sometimes, more than we should.
Most baseball folks believe that Justin Morneau had a breakout season last year or went back to past glories.
Did he?
Or was it just his batting average.
Morneau won the batting title. A batting title does not mean as much as it did in the past.
Although, do not tell the New York Mets that. The Mets pulled Jose Reyes after a bunt base hit, in the first inning of the last game of 2011. That action made baseball fans snarl and paying customers at the home game boo.

Morneau has a 'watch out' label from his concussion a few years back.
He shouldn't.
He has had three straight years with at least 500 at bats.
So, let's look at Morneau's numbers from 2013 and compare them to 2014.
2013- .259/62/17/77/0
2014- .319/62/17/82/0

Baseball people like to believe that Morneau 'flourished' at Coors last year.
It was just his batting average. Really, we can even make the argument that he backtracked a bit.
Afterall, with 60 more points of batting average, his owners should feel a little gypped about his runs/rbi totals.
Morneau's ADP is at 164. The 11th round.
Far ahead of a cat like Marlon Byrd who had these numbers....264/71/25/85/3
No matter what we want to believe about ourselves, we still care about batting average.
Maybe too much.

Interesting post. While you argue that we may think about batting average too much, I'm not sure that enough weight is accorded to the category.

Folks approach the various categories differently. Now that pitching is dominating and batting averages are falling, a steady .300+ batting average is more valuable than ever before. I think consistently high-average hitters should be moved up rankings, possibly more than the general consensus. Where and when it makes sense, I like drafting a few high batting average guys in the early rounds. I feel it gives me a leg up on a category that sometimes is overlooked, and also gives me the flexibility to draft a guy like Chris Carter or Mark Teixeira if I want/need to add power later in the draft. Of course, the key is identifying hitters that will hit for a high average next year, irrespective of what they did last season.

Take a look at Jose Altuve. His 2014 line was .341/7/85/59/56. He was the number 1 rated player last season by the NFBC and others (yes, I know, some can differ about how the ratings are calculated). Without doubt, the 56 SBs were fantastic and, I believe, second only to Dee Gordon in all of baseball. However, if you look at some of his other numbers, one can argue that: (a) his 7 HRs did little to help his rating; (b) his 85 runs, while solid, were nothing special, particularly for a guy typically hitting near the top of the order; and (c) his 59 RBI did little to help his rating. Thus, in three out of the five hitting categories (HR, R, RBI) he ranged from sub-par to solid-but-nothing-special. In addition to stolen bases, much of his value last year stemmed from his .341 BA (on 660 ABs). That is a huge advantage compared to most players. Many of us drool over five-category players - and rightfully so - but last year Altuve was a two-category (or, at best, three-category) player that arguably provided more value than any other player, Trout and Kershaw included.

I'm not saying Altuve is going to hit .340 again. In fact, I suspect his BA will drop to something much closer to .300. But, my point is that a really strong BA provides value that easily can be overlooked as we tend to focus more on the other four hitting categories.

Mike

Understood Mike. And that is the way I used to draft.
I'm almost to a point in batting average, where I just throw my hands up, and say, "I give!"
Will Morneau hit .319 or .260 next year?
Will Polanco hit .235 or .285?
I don't know and really, nobody else does either.

What we DO know is that Polanco is fast and has some power, so those numbers are 'real'.
What batting average we perceive is in each drafters mind.
If I take him, .285, if somebody else takes him .235

The thing is that batting average has become almost as hard to predict as pitchers Wins.
What will be Carlos Santana's batting avg year to year is equally as hard as Rick Porcello's Wins.
There are several ways to approach batting avg.
Your way of getting a few 'batting avg guys'.
Going all 'batting avg guys'
Forgetting bout average.
Putting thought into each draft pick as to their avg.
And many more.

An interesting case this year is Joe Mauer. Due to his first base only positionality, he is taken below Billy Butler and especially Brandon Moss in drafts.
We want corner power. Mauer with his tried and true batting average has become an after thought.
He has fallen from being compared to Yadier Molina to being compared to James Loney.
All three, Mauer, Loney, and Molina share the same numbers and are all good batting average bets.
But none of them are flying off the shelves in drafts.

There's more variance in batting average than the counting stats. If you're trying to take down the overall, you need to embrace and not be scared by variance.

A viable strategy is not to ignore BA but focus primarily on counting stats and then let BA fall where it may.

Again, the objective is to win it all. Hopefully the extra assets funneled to the counters pump them up then you get lucky and have more Altuve's and Morneau's than Craig's and Zunino's and you get those points too. And if you don't, the extra points from the counting stats balance the loss in BA.

ToddZ wrote:There's more variance in batting average than the counting stats. If you're trying to take down the overall, you need to embrace and not be scared by variance.

A viable strategy is not to ignore BA but focus primarily on counting stats and then let BA fall where it may.

Again, the objective is to win it all. Hopefully the extra assets funneled to the counters pump them up then you get lucky and have more Altuve's and Morneau's than Craig's and Zunino's and you get those points too. And if you don't, the extra points from the counting stats balance the loss in BA.

I like this.
Some have done this through the good hitting times and bad. Their thought process being that if the counting numbers add up, batting average will follow.

In a draft earlier, I was in the 17th or 18th round. My thought process was to either add more batting average to my team in drafting Mauer or securing my second catcher and take a nose dive with average by drafting the power numbers of Zunino.
For that particular team, I felt roster construction sided with the power of Zunino.
In past years, I know my self, and I know that Self wouldn't have made that decision.
And I still have a hard time with that decision.
Mauer will get more at bats.
Mauer will hit at the top of the order.
Mauer is almost guaranteed of R/RBI filler
But dammit, unless he takes another Mauer Power Pill, he's like Barney Fife, he only has one bullet, and it ain't loaded.
In past years, I would have selected the Loney Sandwich, not the Zunino pasta.
But, the times, they are a'changin and I reckon I will too.

Good discussion. The Mauer v. Zunino choice is an interesting one. You really could make arguments both ways, and the better decision may depend on roster construction and who else is left on the board.

On a purely isolated basis, I would gravitate toward Mauer. Normally, with power comes counting stats, and in most cases stronger performance in HR, R and RBI would outweigh stronger performance in BA. With Mauer and Zunino, however, the analysis is different, I think. Barring major injury, which is a possibility for both players, Mauer should get many more plate appearances as an "everyday" player hitting high in the lineup versus a catcher probably hitting near the bottom of the lineup. While Mauer's power may be bordering on the nonexistent, I easily could see him winding up with as many - if not more - R and RBI compared to Zunino. Thus, if you assume neither is stealing bases and R and RBI are pretty even (although I would give Mauer a modest edge in both categories), the question comes down to whether Zunino's decided edge in HR is more or less helpful than Mauer's decided edge in BA. What's worth more: 20 HR and a .215 BA or 7 HR and a .285 BA (or whatever projections you want to use)? The better call easily could come down to roster construction.

It also may depend on who is left on the board. For instance, if you are deciding between Mauer and Zunino, you probably are in the late-teens (you mention 17th or 18th round) and need to fill your second catcher and corner infield (or utility) slots. At that point, there may be other corner infielders comparable to Mauer (dare I say James Loney?) whereas Zunino might be the last catcher on the board with a realistic shot at 20 HR.

I think most are comfortable grabbing one or maybe two of the big power/crappy average guys - hell, I'm still winding up with Jay Bruce in a disproportionate number of drafts - but having at least a few consistently strong batting average hitters sure makes it easier to digest the crappy average guys. I fear that if you largely ignore batting average, it is tough to accidentally and consistently score high in that category. Different strokes, I guess.

Mike

Ignoring BA makes it easier to ACCIDENTALLY score high, since there's more room to get lucky. You can't control what happens by accident.

DOUGHBOYS wrote: An interesting case this year is Joe Mauer. Due to his first base only positionality, he is taken below Billy Butler and especially Brandon Moss in drafts.

No one with a regular job should be taken after Billy Butler!

As for the discussion at hand, Mauer's raw stats vs Zunino's using a reasonable projection provides far superior value ... until you add in that Zuny's a catcher, then it's close to a toss-up depending on your particular projection (or as importantly team needs).

ToddZ wrote:Ignoring BA makes it easier to ACCIDENTALLY score high, since there's more room to get lucky. You can't control what happens by accident.

Very low batting avg could cause loss of PT or demotion to minors

Gekko wrote:

ToddZ wrote:Ignoring BA makes it easier to ACCIDENTALLY score high, since there's more room to get lucky. You can't control what happens by accident.

Very low batting avg could cause loss of PT or demotion to minors

Absolutely, sometimes without it being warranted.

I'm talking more about Brian Dozier or Jason Kipnis vs Dustin Pedroia

Or Lucas Duda v Mauer

Dozier hit .244 in 2013 and .242 in 2014. He went from a mid draft pick to now, a fifth round pick.
A 5-1-1-1 box score with a solo used to make us shrug our shoulders. Now, we smile.
Offense that was plentiful has become a take-it-when-we-get-it.
A hand job to a Romeo vs. a hand job to a man marooned on an island for months.