We, And the ADP

[DOUGHBOYS]

A friend in the NFBC called me last week. During the conversation, he stated that he thought Jose Altuve's ADP was off.
I agreed.
11 for a high average judy is a high price.
He said, "No, no, he should be higher. He should be going in the McCutchen or Carlos Gomez area."
I asked why.
He let me know that Altuve had double digit homers in two minor league seasons. One year, hitting 15.
In his reckoning, Altuve could be a 15/60 player. And as such, he should be a player drafted with the elite.
I disagreed, but respected his thoughts.

In a draft after our conversation, I asked how he did.
He rattled off the players he had drafted....including McCutchen.
"Wait...wait a minute", I said. "You took McCutchen, a 25/18 guy at an Outfield spot over your 15/60 guy at 2B?"
He replied, "Yeah, but I'm almost guaranteed those numbers with McCutchen!"

This has A LOT to do with why our adp IS our adp.
Some of like our security more than our own theories.
Look at Giancarlo Stanton. He's powerful. Strong. He can hit the ball out of JellyStone Park.
We've known that for years. Still, he has never been a top 5 pick.
Until this year.
What's different?
Trust.
He stayed mostly healthy for a year and hit those homers. Now, he is trusted.
Not the security blanket that McCutchen is, but trusted.

Its taken Carlos Gonzalez three years to convince fantasy players that he seemingly prefers the bench to playing.
He's had one September homer over the last three years.
When fantasy players are trying to clinch Championships in September, CarGo is available in FAAB, dropped by a team that will not cash.
CarGo is a five tool player on a roster at the beginning of the year. By August, that tool box is swiped away from us.
And its taken us three years to realize this phenomenom.
He has lost trust.

Bryce Harper's adp is 33.
It falling. We know what Harper is capable of.
He is capable of what Stanton did last year.
Unfortunately, he is more capable of hurting himself. For a fella like Harper, we weigh the possible power and the possible sour.
If not getting hurt, he'll probably be a top 5 pick next year.
If getting hurt, again, he'll join CarGo in being a five tool player who makes us feel like a tool for drafting him.

The Major League season is a long one. It has hurt up and comers. George Springer's adp is 42.
Springer has had injury problems in the minors.
Can he withstand the rigors of a full major league season?
For this season, I say it is doubtful.
Still I drafted him on a team in the fourth round.
This is NOT value.
It is me finding a price point, a price point I was more or less, comfortable in drafting Springer.

There is a reason for every player having the adp that they have.
In a recent draft, David Wright was available in the ninth round. It wasn't till then that I even considered Wright.
I didn't draft him, somebody else did. But, I learned my price point for Wright.
These drafts are learning experience. Each one supplying more information.
Not only about players adp's, but also about ourselves.

[Bronx Yankees]

There is a reason for every player having the adp that they have.
In a recent draft, David Wright was available in the ninth round. It wasn't till then that I even considered Wright.
I didn't draft him, somebody else did. But, I learned my price point for Wright.
These drafts are learning experience. Each one supplying more information.
Not only about players adp's, but also about ourselves.

This is a great point. Sometimes, between ADP and others' opinions, there is a lot of noise that Player A is better and should be ranked higher than Player B. I may even think that myself going into a draft. But, as we get into the draft, I'll find myself drafting Player B when Player A is still on the board. Sure, sometimes the decision is influenced by roster construction, and Player B may fit my team better than Player A. But, other times, I discover that I really do not want Player A if Player B is available, regardless of the rest of my team. At that point, I learn, perhaps for the first time, that no matter what anybody else says, Player B is going ahead of Player A in my own rankings.

The drafts also help you learn how your feelings may have changed about a certain player, for better or worse. For example, I've done a number of the DC drafts so far. For two of them - started on November 14 and January 16 - I drafted out of the number 4 hole. In the November 14th draft, I took Freddie Freeman in the second round, at 2.12 (pairing him with Miggy). I liked Freeman at that spot because he is solid hitter, typically is healthy, and he should hit for a high batting average and may peak soon with respect to power. In my mind, I was able to discount last year's somewhat mediocre performance (for him) because I felt he was ready to take a step up - maybe a big step up - this season. I thought he represented decent value at 2.12 (sorry Dan!), and with Miggy would give me a strong base in batting average to take chances later, as well as more-than-solid HR, R and RBI numbers, and help me lock-up elite options at 1B and CI.

In my draft on January 16th, I passed on Freeman at 2.12 and 3.4, and then again at 4.12, which is when I drafted Albert Pujols to be my 1B (to go with Cutch, Cano and Kluber). So, in two months, Freeman went from a guy I was comfortable with at 2.12 to being someone I passed on at 4.12 to draft a different 1B. What happened? Well, for me at least, I was heavily influenced by the dismantling of the Braves lineup. Freeman is not going to be playing with Justin Upton this year, or Jason Heyward, or Evan Gattis. Now, I find myself wondering who is going to be on base ahead of Freeman and, if there is anybody on base, who is going to give Freeman anything decent to hit? Still, you know the Braves are going to score (at least some) runs this season, and Freeman may wind up having a great year, but in two months during which Freeman did not play a single game, my perception and value of him changed considerably. To the extent others agree with me, it is not really reflected in ADP because the ADP values the early drafts equally with the most recent ones.

Mike