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Every Winter, we start thnking about the players we will and will not take during the coming Spring.
By now, most of you have a good handle on the players liked and disliked for drafts.
If you're like me, you have players that you 'Have to have'
Players that you want.
Players you'd like
Players you are wishy washy about and will take them if drafted at bargain rates.
Then, there are the players we don't like. Or, maybe not even players we don't like, but players we don't want to pay the price to get.

I am finishing up my 15th draft. I know for the March drafts that there will be players I probably won't be drafting.
Even if I had liked these players a little bit, they would have made at least one of my rosters by now.
So, I will list a team of players that I simply don't care for this year.
This is fantasy baseball. My opinion doesn't mean much. I'm just a guy who has drafted a lot of teams and have personal and realistic reasons in why I didn't draft these players.
Today, I'll do catchers and infielders.
These may not match your feelings, but that's the fun of it, right?

Catchers- Buster Posey and Wilson Ramos

Alright, right off you are thinking I'm nuts. Buster Posey is the cream of the catcher crop. He is.
Last year, his line was .311/72/22/89
The problem with Posey, for me, is his price.
He is going at the top or middle of the second round.
I cant pay that price.
Positional drafters take Posey, which makes his ADP at 20.
These drafters like that they have an 'advantage' at a position.
.260/57/17/70
Those are the numbers for Sal Perez.
Posey beats Perez in every category.
But, does he beat him enough to warrant a 90 pick difference in ADP?
I don't think so.

Wilson Ramos has not played a full year.
Never had 400 at bats. Only played 100 games once.
Finding a catcher in FAAB, worthwhile, is like trying to find a Porsche at a Kia dealership.
Injured catchers suck.
And Ramos has shown only that he is good at being hurt.

First Baseman-
C'mon. You know who it is.
Joey Votto is getting closer to where he should be taken in drafts. At least he has fallen out of the top three rounds.
Still, I haven't considered drafting him and he has gone as low as the bottom of the sixth round.
With his penchant to keep his bat on his shoulder and his new found love of injury, Votto combines what I dislike most in players.
Votto is going 12th among 1B. I would rather have Justin Morneau who is going 18th and many rounds later.

Second Baseman-
Ben Zobrist
Zobrist is playing out the string. Positionality drafters love him because he gives them versatility.
Problem being, that numbers win this game, not versatility.
I like to say that 2B, SS, OF, no matter where you put Zobrist, he will not get numbers for you.
What good is that?
He used to be close to a 20/20 guy.
Now, he's a 10/10 guy moving to a larger park.
We are lured, somehow, that Zobrist is an everyday player. Mike Aviles, who won't be taken in 30 round drafts, has the positionality of Zobrist and is a 5/14 player. Zobrist gives drafters a pseudo sense of relief in making lineups.

Third Baseman-
David Wright.
I love David Wright, the baseball player.
Guys like Wright and Pedroia and Pence are guys we admire.
At the same time, we're playing a game to win.
Emotional attachment has to be put aside.
I haven't taken Wright in a draft yet. I only considered him in one draft. In that draft, he was taken in the ninth round.
Drafters take Wright for past history. He was a first round pick for years.
Then, Citi Field happened.
It kicked his ass. Wright was never the same fantasy player.
30 homers has turned into lucky to get 20.
And now, injuries at age 32 have crept into the picture. I hope I am wrong on Wright (pun intended).
I want him to succeed. And if he does, I'll tip my hat to the drafter who took him.
But most likely, it won't be me.

Shortstop-
Jose Reyes

This is ALL cost. Third or fourth round?
Are you kidding me?
Reyes had over 600 at bats last year.
600!
And he stole 30 bases
That has to be the most that can be expected for this year. Heck, I'm already doubting he'll get 600 at bats, so why would I expect even 30 stolen bases?
You want a shortstop who is getting older?
Take Jimmy Rollins. He's going in the 12th round and going to a team with a better lineup.
In close to 100 less at bats last year, Rollins hit twice as many homers as Reyes and only had two less stolen bases.
In 2005, I paid a fourth round price for Reyes.
I loved the possible speed, he could give my team and he rewarded me with 60 stolen bases.
Here he is, 10 years later, with no chance of even stealing 50 bases and he's there in the third or fourth round still.
I don't get it.

I'll have outfield and pitchers later.
As always, feel free to disagree.
None of us are right and none of us are wrong until they start playing..........

Dan - Great column. Yes, after doing enough drafts, you definitely figure out who you won't be taking. I agreed with all of your examples, for pretty much the same reasons you state, with the possible exception of Jose Reyes.

I'm not saying Reyes is a no-brainer steal in the 4th round (he has slipped into the 5th round on occasion), but don't forget that he also is a plus player when it comes to batting average. OK, maybe I value that category more than others, but if healthy (and I realize that's a material IF), I can see Reyes hitting .290-.300 with 90+ runs, 10 HR, 50 RBI and 30 SB. I would happily take that from a middle infielder in the 4th or 5th round. While Reyes recently has missed some games every year, his plate appearances still are pretty strong (2010-2014 plate appearances: 603, 586, 716, 419, 655), so maybe the injury risk is not quite as high as the perception. Also, Reyes has a big advantage over Rollins in batting average (Reyes 2010-2014: .282, .337, .287, .296, .287; Rollins 2010-2014: .243, .268, .250, .252, .243). Is he 5-8 rounds better than Rollins? Not sure, but there also is no guarantee that if you pass on Reyes you'll definitely get Rollins. Also, while Rollins is going to a team with a better lineup (Phillies to Dodgers), I'll take the Blue Jays' lineup over the Dodgers' lineup (better ballpark, Encarnacion, Bautista, Donaldson, etc.). Also, Rollins is not without his own question marks. Rollins has been averaging about 15 HR per year over the last three playing in a hitter's park (he only hit 6 HR in 666 PA in 2013); I think he has trouble getting to 15 HR (and maybe 10 HR) this year playing in LA. Also, while Mattingly gave Dee Gordon the green light, will he give one to Rollins? Not sure there either.

I'm not crazy about SS this year, and the two best talents (Tulo and Hanley) probably are bigger injury risks than Reyes. I think their injury risks helps prop up Ian Desmond's value. Anyway, I'm not trying to talk you into drafting Reyes in the 4th or 5th round and I doubt I could even if I tried, but you did say to feel free to disagree, and while I agreed with your other examples, I think a team long on power and short on BA and SB after 3-4 rounds could do a lot worse than Reyes in Rounds 4 or 5. (I kind of like Chris Owings in Rounds 17-18 myself. I think he'll keep the job all year and has a good chance to go 10-15 HR/15-20 SB with a decent average. We'll see.)

Mike

Great reply, Mike.
You almost had me wanting Reyes.
The year that you hope for Reyes, was the year he had last year. That is a fourth or possible fifth round numbers from a fourth or fifth round pick.
There is just hardly any way that he will go higher the next year.
In that way, we are paying the highest price possible for Reyes. There is no bargain to be had.
I have a problem with paying ceiling prices during a draft and that is what I would be doing with Reyes.

Rollins or Owings, as you mentioned, are of greater interest. We tread lightly with both because they will be under going changes in their careers this year, while Reyes stays the same.
In the 12th round, we're not paying for a Rollins ceiling. And in the 18th, we sure as heck not payng for an Owings roof.
At this point, we can only predict health. If Reyes stays healthy all year, we can assume that we get his same numbers.
If Rollins stays healthy, we can only guess at his numbers.
I think more of Rollins numbers for the coming year, you think less.
And, what is better than that?
It'd be a dull world if we all agreed with each other!

Alright, let's do the outfielders that I won't be drafting.
But first, since the first player is involved, I want to go off course a bit.
I'll try to make it short.
When I was a kid and into my young adulthood, I thought the Hall of Fame was a place to be revered.
I don't think that way much anymore.
It's tainted in my mind.
The Hall is a little like the Government to me, they're going to do what they do and there's not much we can do about it, except lose interest.
The Hall has become punishment for greatness in some players.
Does Joe Jackson deserve to be in the Hall? Yes.
Pete Rose? Yes.
Barry Bonds and his merry men of steroid users?
Yes on Bonds....case by case for his merry men.

Baseball has a tradition of being slow to react, then recognizing the problem, then over reacting to the problem.
They did not allow black players for many, many years. Then a trickle of black players came in until deemed acceptable.
Then, 'anybody' can play.
Then the over reaction of having a Jackie Robinson Day and retiring his number at every Stadium in trying to make up for their stupidity for so many years.
Same with steroids. They turned their heads while McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds made mince meat of previous home run records.
Then slowly recognize the existence of steroids, followed by panels and investigations, even Congressional hearings about steroids.
And ultimately, the punishment of non-entry into a Hall of Fame,
A Hall of Fame minus a fellow who hit .400 and led Ty Cobb leagues in hitting.
Minus the fellow who had more hits than anybody in baseball.
Minus the fellow who had more homers than anybody in baseball.
It is not a Hall of Fame. Its lost that status with me.
It is a Club.
A club who judges morality.
A club that lets in Ty Cobb.
Ty Cobb was a southern Protestant who hated northerners, Catholics, blacks and apparently anybody else who was different from him. A man so hated by his teammates that they raised money to send to Napolean LaJoie for beating Cobb in winning the batting title.
Cobb was exonerated by Managers and Commisioners for betting on games, for the good of the game.
Cobb beat up black elevator operators for even talking to him, calling them "Uppity".
Cobb pulled fans out of seats to fight them.
Cobb beat up an umpire under a grandstand and was bent on going further if not stopped by teammates.
Cobb gambled on his own team.
Joe Jackson and Pete Rose had different circumstances.
Those circumstances being that Jackson and Rose didn't have leaders of baseball constantly looking the other way and baseball writers who wrote of Jackson and Rose as possibly nefarious, not Cobb.
The only thing baseball fans heard about Cobb was that he was a great player and sharpened his spikes.
In the meantime, the Hall of Fame sits on its "What is done, is done" policy.
Cobb is in, Rose, Jackson, and Bonds are out.
Much like Augusta was an all-white club while Tiger was winning their tourneys.
It's a sham and a shame.
Reverement turns to pity.
And although it is easier to identify who 'belonged' in Augusta's club, it is getting murkier for the Hall.
Did Piazza use?
Bagwell?
They shouldn't care, but most do.
Which is another rub. some writers care, some don't. There making there own rules as they go along......
Some quoting a morality clause, some paying no attention to it.

Ok, I'll cut it off there, you didn't click on this post for a Hall rant.....

Edit: Wow, that whole rant in just thinking about Ryan Braun leading off this article....

Outfielders-
Ryan Braun
It was clear to me, visually, that Braun was not using last year. It didn't look like the ball jumped off his bat as in previous years.
I believe Braun had been using since at least his College days.
We never saw Braun NOT use, till last year.
And, I didn't like what I saw.
Fantasy-wise, I'd think of drafting him if he were back on the juice.
He had career lows with 500 at bats or more of a .266 average and 19 homers.
Why is he worth a second or third round pick?
Drafters are drafting his past. Or a future of juice.
And, there is a chance he could. But by not drafting him, I'm betting against him doing that.

AJ Pollock-
I know that a lot of folks like him this year.
He's won a starting spot.
He has power and speed.
He even hit for average last year.
He reminds me of Drew Stubbs.
We love the fantasy goodness they bring, but two problems follow both of them.
One. They seem to be better part timers than full timers.
Two. They have a penchant for getting hurt.
And actually, these two items work well together in keeping them part time players.

Brandon Moss-
To be short, I'm betting on the injury.

Joc Pederson-
There'll be spurts where he'll make me look silly. But his swing looks so long, it's hard to believe that MLB pitchers won't have their way with him for most of his rookie year.
I watched Albuquerque play three times last year. And, although he had the hype, I saw two other players on that club that I was more impressed by.


Josh Hamilton-
He went in the 18th round of a recent draft. It was at that time when I even started to consider him.
And that was before his shoulder news.
If that injury makes him miss spring training and the start of the season, it would be tough for drafters in a 30 rounder to put a guy like Hamilton on their bench.
Is he worth even that?
I figure if I have to even ask myself that, the answer is no.

Pitchers-

Garrett Richards-
I know a couple of people that had the same injury Richards suffered.
I'm betting against him in both the number of games he throws this year and the quality of starts once he does pitch every five days.

Jose Fernandez-
He gets taken in the middle of every draft I've been in.
Where fourth starting pitchers are taken.
These are 50 rounders. I can't justify taking him there.
The Marlins know what they have in Fernandez. Rushing him back is the last thing they are going to do.
Lets say he comes back after the All-Star break.
A best, he will be like Strasburg after he came back. A lot of the same stuff, but limited in pitches and innings.
At worst, the Marlins may be out of the pennant race and decide to put him in the bullpen or give him three, four, or five inning starts.
In my mind, Fernandez is going 10 rounds too early.

Johnny Cueto-
He threw 60 innings two years ago.
243 innings last year. Almost 30 innings more than any year of his career.
Cueto is not a rubber arm.
I expect injury.

Adam Wainwright-
Simply, I don't trust him this year.
He'll be 34 years old this year (Man, that makes me feel old!) and with the injury that cropped up at the end of last year, I'll spend somewhere else.

Trevor Rosenthal-
He throws hard and has the Closer job.
Those are the positves.
The negatives are that he is not a comfortable Closer.
Walks too many.
And is not a 'blow away' reliever like other top Closers.
And by 'comfortable Closer', I mean a guy who comes into the game, and your reaction is not, "Oh good, a Save"
Instead, it is "Oh Boy, where's my cigarettes!"


Sean Doolittle and Jake McGee-
"Mr Wing, meet Mr. Prayer"
Why put yourself through the misery?

You'll notice that all these pitchers, except Rosenthal, has me trying to avoid the injury bug.
They're a tough bunch to figure out.
Pitchers are a lot more personal than everyday players.
We live and die with each start or Close of our rostered pitchers. Far more than with an at bat by our every day players.
When my hitter is facing my pitcher, 95% of the time, I want my pitcher to win the battle.
And yet, during drafts, a lot of us will treat pitchers as second class citizens.
During the season, we'll wish we had King Felix.
During drafts, we find reasons not to take him.
We're fickle.....but so are pitchers.

Dan's Mom: Danny! You haven't even touched your Votto...aren't you going to even TRY to pick him?

Little Dan: NO!

Dan's Mom: (Trying the nice friendly Mom trick) But Danny, don't you want your team to grow up big and strong?

Little Dan: NO!

Dan's Mom: (Trying the mean upset Mom trick) Daniel Kenyon...you pick your Votto or there will be no Doritos for desert!

Little Dan: NO! You can't make ME!

Dan's Mom throws her hands up in desparation....

Great as always Dan. I know your lists are short (here, not in real life), but would you add V-Mart to the list these days?

I wouldn't add VMart. He is a guy who can get a years worth of stats in five months.
He makes for a potential bargain at the draft tables.

Detroit is a sight though. They have two designated hitters in Miggy and VMart.
They have Closer by past only, in Nathan.
Two jackrabbits patrol center field in Gore and Rajai. Neither one, a real leadoff hitter.
A left fielder who has already worn out his welcome quickly with two teams previously, in Cespedes.
And a staff of starters who mostly have their best years behind them.
I would bet on them to have a lot more drama than Wins this year.

bargain, value, same difference. hillarious

stay golden dan

I guess I should have used more words to get my point across.
My use of 'Potential bargain' wasn't in the context of beating adp. It was a Potential bargain since VMart backers could possibly get him three rounds later.
I wouldn't call that 'value' since already liking or were going to draft VMart anyway. It's a bargain for them only.
If thinking that bargain and value is the same in that context, so be it.
If wanting to use the word 'value', go to town.

most of the allure of vmart is gone for myself. a few weeks ago there was talk of him suiting up to catch here and there and especially during the tigers interleague games which arrive early in the schedule. so the idea of him gaining Catcher eligibility was pretty exciting. now with knee injury that is almost certainly not going to be an idea that is considered. so not only do i ding him for that but i also hit him again because power is generated by a hitters lower half, generally, and his aging legs and body will have one more hurdle to overcome.

Ill pass on vmart