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I do not use the NFBC ADP for important drafts. The important drafts are the drafts done in late March and early April,
It is silly to use drafts with 50 rounds in mind and try to contour all those drafts into the 30 round variety.
We draft differently knowing there won't be FAAB. We draft differently knowing there will be 50 rounds, not 30. We draft differently after having some knowledge of what Spring Training brought us. And maybe most importantly, thousands of different drafters of all levels make up 50 round drafts. The important drafts in late March and early April are reserved for mostly the best.

So, with this in mind, and before spring training games start, I'm going to try and predict some things that will happen in late March and early April that our ADP is not showing us.

1. ADP fact- Bryce Harper has not been taken in the first round of any draft.

Prediction- Harper will be taken in the first round of at least a half dozen drafts.

Why- Harper has followers. Chief among them, Shawn Childs.
When Childs speaks, people listen.


2. ADP fact- Buster Posey's ADP stands at 19.

Prediction- Posey's ADP will be closer to the last place Posey has been taken in DC's, 32.

Why- Catchers are risky. With more money on the line, they tend to drop.



3. ADP fact- Freddy Freeman has an ADP of 37.

Prediction- Nobody will take Freeman before that ADP number and probably not in the third round at all.

Why- Freeman is a name player. When big drafts begin, drafters will know to say his name later.



4. ADP fact- Hunter Pence is ADP # 62.

Prediction- Pence gets taken before Freeman in most drafts.

Why- The dork always gets more respect in tough drafts. He'll climb as Freeman falls.



5. ADP fact- Jonathon Lucroy is second in 50 round ADP

Prediction- Lucroy will be no better than fifth in important drafts. Passed by Mesoraco, Gomes, and Gattis.

Why- Lucroy makes for a nice 'foundation' catcher in 50's. In 30's, drafters are looking for more power.




6. ADP fact- Anthony Rendon's ADP is 11 in 50 round drafts.

Prediction- For the important drafts, Rendon will be taken in the second round more than the first.

Why- Rendon had a nice year, but his ADP is inflated by his 2B/3B designation. That won't mean as much on FAAB teams.



7. ADP fact- Yasmany Tomas has an ADP of 148.

Prediction- Tomas will be drafted mostly within half of that number in late March and early April.

Why- He is an unknown now. A few homers in Spring training and it's BAM! BOOM! To the moon, Alice!



8. ADP fact- Rusney Castillo and Mookie Betts are together having ADP's of 110 and 111.

Prediction- In late March, early April, they will be separated by two full rounds.

Why- Concerning Rusney Castillo, see Yasmany Tomas.



9. ADP fact- Mike Moustakas ADP is close to the 22nd round.

Prediction- He'll be drafted mostly around the 15th round in important drafts.

Why- Moustakas ADP is driven by year long stats. Better when it counted and a good Spring has him rising.



10 ADP fact- Several Boston pitchers have an ADP beyond #450

Prediction- One of those pitchers will be selected in every 30 round draft.

Why- I won't say who.That's for you to figure out!

1. ADP fact- Bryce Harper has not been taken in the first round of any draft.

Prediction- Harper will be taken in the first round of at least a half dozen drafts.

I would be surprised Dan if this happens. While I agree his stock will rise, especially with a strong spring, he has had multiple seasons of not living up to the hype. 2nd round, even early, yes, 1st round I would be very surprised. I know at least 2 people this won't be an issue with

5. ADP fact- Jonathon Lucroy is second in 50 round ADP

Prediction- Lucroy will be no better than fifth in important drafts. Passed by Mesoraco, Gomes, and Gattis.


If this happens, I think it will be due to his injury than his power. For those that believe in the early catcher philosophy, stability is a key attibute, and when healthy, Lucroy is arguably #1 there.

9. ADP fact- Mike Moustakas ADP is close to the 22nd round.

Prediction- He'll be drafted mostly around the 15th round in important drafts.


Is there a better spring training hitter than Moustakas? If he has his normal exceptional spring, it will be interesting how many rounds he rises this year. His playoffs will add to the intrigue of whether he has figured it out - 15th would be an playable over/under in Vegas if they had those sort of things

Fun facts to know and bore the fantasy-clueless...in the latest ADP from yesterday, there were 960 non-placeholders picks.

1) The team with the fewest selections: The Reds
2) The team with the most selctions: The Rangers
3) The range was 25 to 39, average of course 32.
4) More than 35? Marlins (36), Diamondbacks (37), Dodgers (38)
5) Fewer than 29? Cardinals (28), Phillies (26)
6) The Yankees (35) beat the Mets (30)
7) The Cubbies and White Sox are tied (33)
8) The Royals (30) beat the Giants (29)
9) The split was 45.5% Pitchers and 54.5% position players despite the fact pitchers only make up 39.1% of active rosters.
10) The NL West is best. 21 pitchers were taken each for Arizona and the Dodgers. No other teams had more than 17 (NYY, OAK, SD).
11) Toronto? Not so much. Only 10 pitchers taken, followed by the Reds (11), White Sox, Indians, Twins, and Phillies (12)
12) Most position players taken was from the Rangers (23), followed by Baltimore (22), White Sox, Astros, Marlins (21)
13) Fewest position players taken is an NL affair: Reds, Cardinals, Nationals, and Phillies (14)
14) Lowest average ADP? Nationals.
15) Highest? Arizona.
16) Useful information? (0)