Intuition and Fantasy Baseball
Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:28 am
When we hear the word 'intuition', it is usually linked with women.
I don't know why.
I think in a world where man were more dominant in the early part of the 20th century, they wanted to give women 'something', so they' le't women have intuition.
Intuition is not gender friendly though.
We all have different levels and beliefs in intuition.
As fantasy players, we depend on intuition.
I believe in Jon Lester.
He has shown in the past, that he can be a really good pitcher. Even in a league and division where hitting is king.
According to a thread on the top line, a lot of fellas don't think much of Lester.
I'm ok with that. We can take virtually any pitcher who is not doing well and have naysayers rule the day.
My intuition, before Lester signed with the Cubs, was that...
1. He should succeed wherever signed.
2. He's not the type that would sign for big money, then 'hide'.
3. That he could come at a good price.
He started out as a 5/6 round pick. Lester is not a fantasy ace. Not like Felix, or Bumgarner, or Sale, Price, or others who were going in the first three rounds.
I thought the price was very fair and selected him in a couple of slow drafts.
We got more information, knowing that Lester signed with the Cubs.
I expected a jump in his price because...
1. The Cubs are a popular fantasy team
2. American to National League
3. Hype
The jump in price was minor. Instead of round 5/6, Lester became a round 4/5.
I think of this price jump as minor. New news tends to jump some pitchers through the roof.
I drafted Matt Harvey in rounds 5/6 in several slow drafts.
As soon as he threw one inning of Spring Training, Harvey became a green light special.
In large drafts, including the Main Events, Harvey hardly made it out of round 1/2 at all.
New news can do this.
Anyway, I have Lester on several teams.
I like him. I like his stuff. And also believe that baserunning and clubs taking advantage of his yips to first base, have served to rattle him.
When Lester solves this problem, my intuition is that Lester will go back to being Jon Lester.
A tough pitcher to face.
Intuition works the other way too.
I didn't draft Adam Wainwright on one team. Didn't even come close.
He came at approximately the same price as Lester.
But something, probably bad news about his arm at the end of last year, kept me from even thinking about taking him.
Or maybe it was that, including post-season, he's thrown close to 500 innings over the last two years.
Maybe.
Or maybe because he'll be turning 34 years of age this year.
Maybe.
Or maybe, and this may be the most important factor, it just didn't feel right.
That, that is intuition.
Intuition never leaves us patting ourselves on the back.
There is no research. No visual information. No concrete facts or evidence in what brings us to a player or away from him.
It's our gut. And our brain.
Sometimes, our gut wins the argument with our brain.
Intuition lives in our gut.
And when the gut wins the debate, we are left to ponder if we really did the right thing.
When our brain wins the debate, we have the rational reasons to feel secure in our pick.
When the brain wins, we may even pat ourselves on the back for a pick.
Going with our gut or intuition never gives us the feeling of a mental fist pump.
I don't know why.
I think in a world where man were more dominant in the early part of the 20th century, they wanted to give women 'something', so they' le't women have intuition.
Intuition is not gender friendly though.
We all have different levels and beliefs in intuition.
As fantasy players, we depend on intuition.
I believe in Jon Lester.
He has shown in the past, that he can be a really good pitcher. Even in a league and division where hitting is king.
According to a thread on the top line, a lot of fellas don't think much of Lester.
I'm ok with that. We can take virtually any pitcher who is not doing well and have naysayers rule the day.
My intuition, before Lester signed with the Cubs, was that...
1. He should succeed wherever signed.
2. He's not the type that would sign for big money, then 'hide'.
3. That he could come at a good price.
He started out as a 5/6 round pick. Lester is not a fantasy ace. Not like Felix, or Bumgarner, or Sale, Price, or others who were going in the first three rounds.
I thought the price was very fair and selected him in a couple of slow drafts.
We got more information, knowing that Lester signed with the Cubs.
I expected a jump in his price because...
1. The Cubs are a popular fantasy team
2. American to National League
3. Hype
The jump in price was minor. Instead of round 5/6, Lester became a round 4/5.
I think of this price jump as minor. New news tends to jump some pitchers through the roof.
I drafted Matt Harvey in rounds 5/6 in several slow drafts.
As soon as he threw one inning of Spring Training, Harvey became a green light special.
In large drafts, including the Main Events, Harvey hardly made it out of round 1/2 at all.
New news can do this.
Anyway, I have Lester on several teams.
I like him. I like his stuff. And also believe that baserunning and clubs taking advantage of his yips to first base, have served to rattle him.
When Lester solves this problem, my intuition is that Lester will go back to being Jon Lester.
A tough pitcher to face.
Intuition works the other way too.
I didn't draft Adam Wainwright on one team. Didn't even come close.
He came at approximately the same price as Lester.
But something, probably bad news about his arm at the end of last year, kept me from even thinking about taking him.
Or maybe it was that, including post-season, he's thrown close to 500 innings over the last two years.
Maybe.
Or maybe because he'll be turning 34 years of age this year.
Maybe.
Or maybe, and this may be the most important factor, it just didn't feel right.
That, that is intuition.
Intuition never leaves us patting ourselves on the back.
There is no research. No visual information. No concrete facts or evidence in what brings us to a player or away from him.
It's our gut. And our brain.
Sometimes, our gut wins the argument with our brain.
Intuition lives in our gut.
And when the gut wins the debate, we are left to ponder if we really did the right thing.
When our brain wins the debate, we have the rational reasons to feel secure in our pick.
When the brain wins, we may even pat ourselves on the back for a pick.
Going with our gut or intuition never gives us the feeling of a mental fist pump.