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Each and every one of us fool ourselves.
Not just us, who draft fantasy players to rosters, but anybody who drafts a human being. Waching the NFL Draft last night, I was struck by the plethora of stupid things said by many smart people.
When drafting an athlete, be it us in a fantasy draft or NFL teams in a football draft, we think of players as commodities.
As fantasy players, we have an advantage. We KNOW what Mike Trout or Felix Hernandez or even Ryan Raburn can do at the top level. Not one player drafted last night has been in an NFL game.
Despite this, most analysts would have us believe that all 32 players picked last night will be successful players. A few even said that the top 16 picks were 'elite, the other 16 'very good'.
Bullshit.

As we're drafting we convince ourselves that things are true, when they're not true at all.
In our case, we may overdraft Daniel Murphy, convinced that 'good' second basemen are running short and we don't have that position on our roster.
As it turns out, DJ Lemahieu, Devon Travis, and even Logan Forsythe would have been more than enough to at least get us through April.
I heard the word 'value' as much last night as I do during one of our drafts.
How often do we, as Managers, not drafters, use the value word now?
Next to never.
For us, real value is being established as we watch our players play.
Those who saw Corey Kluber as a 'value pick' late in the third round are now wavering in why taking Kluber at all.
Same with Puig.
Same with Mesoraco.
If overdrafting Adrian Gonzalez in the second or third round, criticized for taking him too early.

The NFL Draft is an even larger crapshoot.
None of us. No Mel Kiper. No scout. No football expert. Not one of us know how a college kid will react on an NFL field.
Yet, these experts last night were determining who would do what.
One year, there was a controversy over two top quarterbacks and which one would be drafted first.
It was a win-win situation for the top two teams that held the rights to these kids futures.
Afterall, each kid was sure to have a long and lasting career in the NFL.
Can't misses.
Those two quarterbacks were Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.
We all know what happened to Manning. The pace of the NFL and quick decision making were attributes that made the NFL game right up his alley. The slower witted Leaf, a rich man, monetarily, a pauper in ability.
Yet, these two men were virtual equals in the draft room.

16 elite players last night?
What a load of crap.
Guaranteed, there will be several players drafted after those 16 that have a better career.
Our human element effects how we perceive the human element in whether one player is better than another.
For some reason during drafts, we pigeon-hole players.
Fooled that if we have a top 16 pick, that we will get an elite player.
Or waiting till the sixth round and possibly missing on Gerritt Cole, even though we think he'll have second round numbers.
Cole had an adp of 77.
And even though we believe in his second round abilities, we'll get greedy too.
We want the dreaded 'value pick'.
Yet, if Cole is picked by another team, not only have you lost your second round numbers, those numbers will be played against you by a competing team.

Locally, Brocos fans were ecstatic with their first choice.
"I can't believe he was still there!" (how many times have we heard that as drafters )
And I am betting most fans of other teams were just as ecstatic with their first round picks.
It's like having a new Corvette parked in our driveway.
We haven't driven it, but wejust KNOW it'll be cool.
It is only till we get in that we find the car
1. Perfect.
2. A few things wrong.
3. Not as cool as thought
4. Spends a lot of time in the shop.
5. A lemon.

In effect, the NFL Draft is like ours.
Instead of us cheerleading our own picks, broadcasters and fans do it for their teams.
Every player has 'value'.
Every player will be a difference maker.
But most of all, we all fool ourselves into placing 'value' into a commodity that has not even been test driven.

What term would you use rather than "value" to describe taking a player later than he tends to go? I use the word value for that scenario, but perhaps there is a word that would better describe it. When I personally use that word, I don't mean that he his production is likely to be valuable. I am neutral on far more players than most. I mean that I got him at a more valuable spot in my draft than those drafting the same player in the other drafts in that particular contest.

In a contained league, that word probably does not apply though. There are no comparisons. You don't have to worry about taking Cole in the 2nd round if you think that is the proper play. There won't be people in other leagues that get him 3 rounds later that will have a huge edge on you by getting a great 2nd round player and Cole later.

Cocktails and Dreams wrote:What term would you use rather than "value" to describe taking a player later than he tends to go? I use the word value for that scenario, but perhaps there is a word that would better describe it. When I personally use that word, I don't mean that he his production is likely to be valuable. I am neutral on far more players than most. I mean that I got him at a more valuable spot in my draft than those drafting the same player in the other drafts in that particular contest.

In a contained league, that word probably does not apply though. There are no comparisons. You don't have to worry about taking Cole in the 2nd round if you think that is the proper play. There won't be people in other leagues that get him 3 rounds later that will have a huge edge on you by getting a great 2nd round player and Cole later.

I would use no term. Nobody gets 'value' on draft day.
We're Americans though. We want to win.
Saying 'I got a value with that pick' makes us stick out our chests. None of us win anything while we're drafting, so we pretend.
If picking Adrian Gonzalez in the second round, the prevailing thought is that he was overdrafted.
If in the fourth, a 'value pick'.
We think this way because of the possibility that AGon would be there in the third round for both of these drafters.
It's silly.
By nature, we assume our first pick will be better than our second pick who will be better than our third pick.
Also silly.
I've never had a draft work that way. Nor seen one.
Still, at the draft table, we think that way.

Now that we have seen play for a month, we do see 'value'. Statistics are real, not imagined.
We know that that kid playing second base for Toronto may be a lot better pick than first realized.
Not a 25th round pick.
That maybe Joc Pederson should have been given more consideration.
And that maybe, Kennys Vargas wasn't as good as first thought.
But of course, by the end of May, all of those inklings may reverse.
These are just trends.
There is no value in trends either.
There is value in how each of us react to trends.
The person who thought he was getting Kendall Graveman at 'value', now thinks he's a piece of crap for ruining his April statistics.
That drafter never really had any value at all.

What we do have is money (stats) in the bank.
Real stats. Real value.
Not perceived value, like on draft day.
Perceived value or 'value' on draft day is a willing Kate Upton in your head. Real value is a willing Kate Upton in your bed.
After drafting, as much as we tell ourselves that we have value or even bargains, the reality is that we have 30 names, just like 14 other teams. Nothing more, nothing less.

The closest I get to 'value' is this...
Let's say I want Adrian Gonzalez badly. But, I had to pass on him in the third because Bryce Harper also dropped.
Then, AGon is still there for me in the fourth.
I let myself call this a 'bargain.' It is only a bargain unto myself.
Not because of adp, not because of a flow of a draft, because I really wanted AGon and passed on him for the even more coveted Harper. And still got him.
That is a bargain in and to myself only. Sometimes it beats adp, sometimes not. ADP is not my measure. It's others.
The prevailing thought is that if beating adp, you have a 'value pick'.
In a word, crap.
Not one of us thinks adp knows more than we do as an individual. If so, that person should not be playing in high stakes fantasy baseball.

As for Cole, I didn't mean to insinuate that he should be taken in the second round, if expecting second round numbers.
That defeats the purpose, right?
At the same time, in the fourth and fifth rounds, he could be an easy take.