OBP, the Empty Stat
Posted: Mon May 11, 2015 2:55 pm
I've gotten a little bit of grief because of my stance on OBP.
My stance is that OBP is the most overrated statistic in baseball. Sabrs love the stat. They even use it as a tool in measuring a player.
All bunk.
The other day, an announcer, trying to give a hometown player more credit than deserved, described the player as "somebody who will force a walk".
Batters do not 'force' walks.
As far as I know, not one batter in all of baseball has controlled where a pitch is thrown.
1. Bryce Harper WSH
2. Joc Pederson LAD
3.Carlos SantanaCLE
4.Matt Holliday STL
5.Miguel CabreraDET
6.Mark Teixeira NYY
7.Jose Bautista TOR
8.Paul GoldschmidtARZ
9.Curtis GrandersonNYM
10.Evan LongoriaTAM
11. Joey VottoCIN
What do most of these players have in common?
The answer would be that they can all hurt a pitcher with one pitch. Most are middle of the lineup guys that are to be avoided in situations by MLB pitchers. Pederson and Granderson, leadoff hitters who would/should be middle of the lineup hitters on other teams. By the same token, these fellas are not whaling away at any pitch that is close. In fact, Harper has changed his approach and it has helped him, so far, in being a much better hitter than in the past.
These fellows lead the Major Leagues in walks.
It is actually nice to see others beside Votto and Santana leading baseball in walks. In the past, Votto and Santana were VERY content in taking a base on balls. Even to the detriment of their teams.
Now, their teams have slotted them in the second position in the lineup.
This is smart.
I feel that neither will draw as many walks this year as they have in the past.
A walk to a two-hole hitter IS much more productive than a walk to the four-hole hitter. There are simply not many good hitters down the lineups on Major League teams.
Will Santana score after a walk with Brantley or Moss behind him?
There's a pretty good chance.
Will Santana score after a walk with David Murphy or Ryan Raburn behind him?
Eh, probably not.
Votto now has Frazier behind him, then Phillips, then Bruce.
Not Mesoraco, then Heisey, then Cozart.
More than that, WHEN a player draws a walk is more important than how many.
Bryce Harper draws a walk with two outs and nobody on.
Is this a plus for Harper?
Is this a plus for his team?
Is this a plus for his fantasy owner?
Did Harper 'force' a walk?
The answer to all of the questions is a big NO.
Most players walked with two outs and nobody on, do not score.
A less than 15% chance of scoring.
In a way, Harper did force a walk, no matter his method at the plate. Pitchers look to see who is hot, so in this way, he did force a walk. But, a walk like the one described is a pitcher's tool. Not a hitter's credit. The pitcher is using the situation to his advantage. Yet, sabrs give these hitters a big pat on the back.
The walk has gone from being a pitcher's detriment to being more of a hitter-friendly stat.
I like to see WHO a pitcher walked in an outing. It tells me more about a pitchers control and if those walks were those of strategical use or those of wildness.
If Miguel Cabrera is walked twice by Mark Buehrle. Once with a man on third and one out. Then again, with nobody on and two outs. I won't credit Cabrera. I'll credit Buehrle.
That's right. I will credit a pitcher for a walk.
In my mind, there should be a 'good walks' category and a 'bad walks' category.
Kris Bryant is being lauded for his OBP by some.
I don't know whether he deserves so much credit. Pitchers are baiting him. They know that they can be hurt if cookies are thrown over the plate.
So far, pitchers are winning the battle against Bryant. He will have to adjust if he wants to hit like he did in the Minors.
Bryant only has seven extra base hits. One homer.
He has walked 17 times and has 14 singles....and only scored 13 runs.
THAT, is a win for pitchers.
Bryant can either perpetuate his OBP or he can look to hit a few pitches that he is passing on.
In the minors, knowing that he will get that one good pitch to hit in every at bat.
Bryant has to adjust. No matter how much sabr's love his OBP.
His Manager has recently helped Bryant by slotting him second in the lineup. I feel this will help him see better pitches too and I'm betting he won't walk as much.
Bartolo Colon is being called a pitcher with pinpoint control. His k/bb ratio is almost ridiculous since he has walked only one batter. It is not his that his control is so good. His running fastball is making hitters swing at pitches out of the zone.
Hitters are helping Colon.
This is a pitcher that a hitter 'forcing' a walk would be to there advantage.
So far though, Colon has not had that happen.
Illustrating that the pitcher has the power, not the hitter.
We are trained to believe that a walk, any walk, is a good thing for the offensive team.
It's not.
The bat is being taken out of some good hitter's hands.
And at the same time, these hitter's are being applauded for taking these walks.
The player that should be applauded is the pitcher that is giving up less runs because of those walks.
I know that last sentence sounds counter-believable.
Next time watching a game, pay attention to the base on balls. Make up your own mind. When seeing a walk, determine in your own mind in who benefits more from that walk.
Also, look at the result of the walk.
Sometimes a pitcher may have just lost control of pitches. More times than not, it is the pitcher controlling who is walked.
My stance is that OBP is the most overrated statistic in baseball. Sabrs love the stat. They even use it as a tool in measuring a player.
All bunk.
The other day, an announcer, trying to give a hometown player more credit than deserved, described the player as "somebody who will force a walk".
Batters do not 'force' walks.
As far as I know, not one batter in all of baseball has controlled where a pitch is thrown.
1. Bryce Harper WSH
2. Joc Pederson LAD
3.Carlos SantanaCLE
4.Matt Holliday STL
5.Miguel CabreraDET
6.Mark Teixeira NYY
7.Jose Bautista TOR
8.Paul GoldschmidtARZ
9.Curtis GrandersonNYM
10.Evan LongoriaTAM
11. Joey VottoCIN
What do most of these players have in common?
The answer would be that they can all hurt a pitcher with one pitch. Most are middle of the lineup guys that are to be avoided in situations by MLB pitchers. Pederson and Granderson, leadoff hitters who would/should be middle of the lineup hitters on other teams. By the same token, these fellas are not whaling away at any pitch that is close. In fact, Harper has changed his approach and it has helped him, so far, in being a much better hitter than in the past.
These fellows lead the Major Leagues in walks.
It is actually nice to see others beside Votto and Santana leading baseball in walks. In the past, Votto and Santana were VERY content in taking a base on balls. Even to the detriment of their teams.
Now, their teams have slotted them in the second position in the lineup.
This is smart.
I feel that neither will draw as many walks this year as they have in the past.
A walk to a two-hole hitter IS much more productive than a walk to the four-hole hitter. There are simply not many good hitters down the lineups on Major League teams.
Will Santana score after a walk with Brantley or Moss behind him?
There's a pretty good chance.
Will Santana score after a walk with David Murphy or Ryan Raburn behind him?
Eh, probably not.
Votto now has Frazier behind him, then Phillips, then Bruce.
Not Mesoraco, then Heisey, then Cozart.
More than that, WHEN a player draws a walk is more important than how many.
Bryce Harper draws a walk with two outs and nobody on.
Is this a plus for Harper?
Is this a plus for his team?
Is this a plus for his fantasy owner?
Did Harper 'force' a walk?
The answer to all of the questions is a big NO.
Most players walked with two outs and nobody on, do not score.
A less than 15% chance of scoring.
In a way, Harper did force a walk, no matter his method at the plate. Pitchers look to see who is hot, so in this way, he did force a walk. But, a walk like the one described is a pitcher's tool. Not a hitter's credit. The pitcher is using the situation to his advantage. Yet, sabrs give these hitters a big pat on the back.
The walk has gone from being a pitcher's detriment to being more of a hitter-friendly stat.
I like to see WHO a pitcher walked in an outing. It tells me more about a pitchers control and if those walks were those of strategical use or those of wildness.
If Miguel Cabrera is walked twice by Mark Buehrle. Once with a man on third and one out. Then again, with nobody on and two outs. I won't credit Cabrera. I'll credit Buehrle.
That's right. I will credit a pitcher for a walk.
In my mind, there should be a 'good walks' category and a 'bad walks' category.
Kris Bryant is being lauded for his OBP by some.
I don't know whether he deserves so much credit. Pitchers are baiting him. They know that they can be hurt if cookies are thrown over the plate.
So far, pitchers are winning the battle against Bryant. He will have to adjust if he wants to hit like he did in the Minors.
Bryant only has seven extra base hits. One homer.
He has walked 17 times and has 14 singles....and only scored 13 runs.
THAT, is a win for pitchers.
Bryant can either perpetuate his OBP or he can look to hit a few pitches that he is passing on.
In the minors, knowing that he will get that one good pitch to hit in every at bat.
Bryant has to adjust. No matter how much sabr's love his OBP.
His Manager has recently helped Bryant by slotting him second in the lineup. I feel this will help him see better pitches too and I'm betting he won't walk as much.
Bartolo Colon is being called a pitcher with pinpoint control. His k/bb ratio is almost ridiculous since he has walked only one batter. It is not his that his control is so good. His running fastball is making hitters swing at pitches out of the zone.
Hitters are helping Colon.
This is a pitcher that a hitter 'forcing' a walk would be to there advantage.
So far though, Colon has not had that happen.
Illustrating that the pitcher has the power, not the hitter.
We are trained to believe that a walk, any walk, is a good thing for the offensive team.
It's not.
The bat is being taken out of some good hitter's hands.
And at the same time, these hitter's are being applauded for taking these walks.
The player that should be applauded is the pitcher that is giving up less runs because of those walks.
I know that last sentence sounds counter-believable.
Next time watching a game, pay attention to the base on balls. Make up your own mind. When seeing a walk, determine in your own mind in who benefits more from that walk.
Also, look at the result of the walk.
Sometimes a pitcher may have just lost control of pitches. More times than not, it is the pitcher controlling who is walked.