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Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Fri Dec 11, 2015 10:47 am
by DOUGHBOYS
After the Winter Meetings-

Sometimes I think what we do is an exercise in futility. We are drafting players with no idea of not only what their role will be, but team they will be playing for. The odds are that if drafting early, one or more of those players has been traded or lost or gained a new role.
Luke Gregerson has gone from a sure-shot to a no-shot.
Zack Greinke has lost a round of ADP.
Michael Brantley who lost two rounds of ADP, lost two more rounds of ADP.
Lance Lynn is a write-off.
Aroldis Chapman owners don't know what to think.
Neither do Puig owners.
Yunel Escobar is seeing his fifth team in the last five years. A clubhouse poison.
Oh, those Cubans, right Jim? :D

We think we draft for the future. But really, we're drafting for the now.
Hector Rondon owners know the Cubs are keeping their ears open for a more qualified Closer.
Some of us will make a mental note to demote Rondon on our lists. Still, somebody will take him in around the 10th round because Rondon has the job NOW.
Now is more important than later. Later holds no guarantees. At least NOW we are right, until we're not.

The Reds trying to trade Chapman and the Yankees trying to trade Miller sends large warnings to me.
We already know the Chapman story.
The story on Miller may be worse in fantasy terms.
I smell that the Yankees have little confidence in Miller's future health.
They signed him to a friendly four year contract just last year. He pitched damned well in a Closer's role that he's never had.
And now, now they are trying to move him?
Something stinks.
And I believe other teams are smelling the same thing.
If trading him, I don't think they'll get a major haul.
I drafted Miller in a previous draft. Most likely, I will not draft him again.

Writers hailed the Neil Walker-Jon Niese trade as even. Not from a fantasy sense. Walker goes from hitting in back of McCutchen and Marte to hitting behind ???
The Mets lineup is still a work in progress, but it's almost certain that there most powerful hitter will be Lucas Duda.
Not much to see here. Especially since he'll be going to a power restricted ballpark.
Niese goes to a worse pitchers park. BUT, he gets to work with Ray Searage who has turned nothing pitchers into something pitchers. Niese always seemed like he was on the brink of something with the Mets, but an injury or something else always seemed to hold him back.
It would not surprise me at all to see him have a wonderful year.

The Red Sox have said they're moving Hanley Ramirez to first base. Naturally.
When a player has shown that he can't field, FIRST BASE!
First base is the hospice of baseball fielders.
As Ramirez has done with other positions, I think he'll make a mockery of first base.
Most of the problem with Ramirez is above his neck. A first baseman with a wondering mind is not a good recipe for success. Either for his team or himself.
The amusing thing for me, is that he'll be playing next to Dustin Pedroia.
If anybody cares about what goes on in an infield, it is Dustin Pedroia.
Putting these two together goes beyond Joe Tinker and Frank Chance.
I'm thinking Andy Taylor and Barney Fife.

Re: Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:35 am
by ToddZ
Dan -- PNC is among the best pitcher's parks in the league and squashes power. Citi is a pitchers park but is plus for power.

Re: Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:51 am
by DOUGHBOYS
MLB Park Factors - Through December 10, 2015
RK PARK NAME RUNS HR H 2B 3B BB
1 Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin) 1.103 1.432 1.010 1.070 1.161 1.006
2 Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland) 1.228 1.415 1.121 0.978 0.775 0.936
3 Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois) 0.950 1.276 0.934 0.794 1.094 1.029
4 Yankee Stadium (New York, New York) 1.022 1.251 0.975 0.887 0.630 1.000
5 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.436 1.210 1.301 1.235 2.000 1.057
6 Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 1.038 1.140 0.977 0.946 0.667 1.049
7 Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio) 1.115 1.137 1.075 1.043 0.444 1.101
8 U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois) 0.904 1.113 0.953 0.873 0.833 1.234
9 Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas) 0.927 1.100 0.954 0.963 1.520 0.951
10 Petco Park (San Diego, California) 0.931 1.085 0.966 0.956 0.792 0.992
11 PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) 0.933 1.083 0.962 0.874 0.821 1.000
12 Globe Life Park in Arlington (Arlington, Texas) 1.141 1.066 1.107 1.102 0.946 1.133
13 Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota) 0.994 1.058 1.039 0.979 0.816 0.954
14 Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.) 1.000 1.025 0.992 1.049 0.500 1.043
15 Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario) 0.906 1.005 0.926 1.076 0.958 0.998
16 Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California) 0.918 1.000 0.948 1.059 0.643 0.791
17 Citi Field (New York, New York) 0.870 0.994 0.912 0.934 0.905 0.998
18 Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio) 1.261 0.986 1.169 1.440 0.774 1.115
19 Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts) 1.191 0.971 1.103 1.281 1.031 0.920
20 Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida) 0.940 0.962 0.939 0.832 0.704 0.895
21 Angel Stadium of Anaheim (Anaheim, California) 0.861 0.921 0.939 0.863 0.739 1.025
22 Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington) 0.878 0.905 0.917 0.829 0.800 0.954
23 Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri) 0.931 0.857 1.055 1.008 1.031 0.924
24 Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona) 1.062 0.856 1.047 1.207 1.786 1.025
25 Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri) 1.019 0.793 0.995 1.221 1.455 0.892
26 Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan) 0.902 0.791 0.966 0.977 1.353 0.988
27 O.co Coliseum (Oakland, California) 0.944 0.777 0.964 0.967 1.185 0.906
28 Marlins Park (Miami, Florida) 0.950 0.740 0.990 0.940 1.226 1.078
29 Turner Field (Atlanta, Georgia) 0.937 0.720 0.915 0.971 0.759 1.114
30 AT&T Park (San Francisco, California) 0.845 0.599 0.917 0.841 1.647 0.987
Glossary

After your response, I looked at the park factors provided by ESPN for both parks.
Runs and home runs are more plentiful in Pittsburgh.
What am I missing, Todd?

Re: Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:02 pm
by DOUGHBOYS
Ah!!! Up till last year, PNC was one of the worst home run parks.
You're right.
What the Hell happened last year?

Re: Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:03 pm
by ToddZ
Park factors should be looked at as 3-year averages but that said, I had PNC wrong (sorry) -- almost neutral for runs but bad for power.

In practical terms, the park switches for Niese and Walker are basically a wash for each since PNC is better for LHB and all of Walkers pop is vs RHP.

Re: Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Fri Dec 11, 2015 7:29 pm
by teflontim
I took Miller in our draft and hated the pick instantly.

Re: Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Sat Dec 12, 2015 6:32 am
by Edwards Kings
DOUGHBOYS wrote:The story on Miller may be worse in fantasy terms.
I smell that the Yankees have little confidence in Miller's future health.
They signed him to a friendly four year contract just last year. He pitched damned well in a Closer's role that he's never had.
And now, now they are trying to move him?
Something stinks.
And I believe other teams are smelling the same thing.
If trading him, I don't think they'll get a major haul.
I drafted Miller in a previous draft. Most likely, I will not draft him again.
Perhaps. The $9m per year for '16-'18 is pretty sweet, but shouldn't that sweeten the pot and make him more desirable for teams to covet? Could it be they also have this Dellin Betances guy who is an even sweeter bargain as he does not begin his arbitration years until 2017? If I were the Yankees, I would shop the hell out of Miller. Still might not be good for fantasy as I can see several teams willing to pay $9m a year for a set-up guy with closing experience.

Re: Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:36 am
by DOUGHBOYS
Edwards Kings wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:The story on Miller may be worse in fantasy terms.
I smell that the Yankees have little confidence in Miller's future health.
They signed him to a friendly four year contract just last year. He pitched damned well in a Closer's role that he's never had.
And now, now they are trying to move him?
Something stinks.
And I believe other teams are smelling the same thing.
If trading him, I don't think they'll get a major haul.
I drafted Miller in a previous draft. Most likely, I will not draft him again.
Perhaps. The $9m per year for '16-'18 is pretty sweet, but shouldn't that sweeten the pot and make him more desirable for teams to covet? Could it be they also have this Dellin Betances guy who is an even sweeter bargain as he does not begin his arbitration years until 2017? If I were the Yankees, I would shop the hell out of Miller. Still might not be good for fantasy as I can see several teams willing to pay $9m a year for a set-up guy with closing experience.
Cant agree, Wayne.
When a player signs a new contract with the Yankees and performs above expectations, the Yanks don't deal him.
Especially a club friendly contract.
Miller and Betances at the back of the bullpen was the Yankees strength last year.
No, something stinks badly.
Otherwise, other clubs would have leapt at the chance.
The Yankees aren't known for asking for a high price in trades.
I do believe that Betances will be their Closer this year. Whether Miller is dealt or not.

Re: Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Sat Dec 12, 2015 2:34 pm
by Bronx Yankees
Dan - I think the Yankees shopping Miller is more of a reflection of their starting rotation than of Miller. Yes, Miller is an injury risk, as his track record shows. Hell, he even missed about a month last year. That being said, Miller is a helluva good RP. His contract looks team-friendly now only because he was so dominant last year. At the time, it was one of the biggest paydays ever for an RP with no real closing experience. Miller is one of the few RPs that can put up a lot of saves, have great ratios, and hit or exceed 100 Ks. The Yankees are open to selling high on him because their rotation is full of question marks. You got the youngster in Severino, Tanaka who is one awkward pitch away from being out for a year, the up-and-down Pineda who has never been a high innings guy, and then folks like Eovaldi (who was not as good as his record may suggest), Nova and Sabathia. I would have trouble drafting Miller too early (maybe first seven rounds or so due to injury and trade risks), but if he slips, he also could be a steal for some owner. While I hope Betances becomes the closer (solely because I took him in the draft we just finished because I thought he fell too far), I would bet on Miller starting the year as closer if he is not traded, primarily for two reasons. First, Miller out-pitched Betances for most of the year and I see no compelling reason for Girardi to switch roles. Second, the Yankees feel like Betances can get more than three outs per appearance, and they liked bringing him into the game for part of the seventh inning and the eighth inning. Although I think Betances got tired by the end of the season, he is more likely to continue in that role than for the Yankees to put Miller into that role. Just my two cents.

Mike

Re: Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Sat Dec 12, 2015 2:41 pm
by Bronx Yankees
Forgot to mention, notwithstanding what I said about the Yankees wanting to trade Miller for a starter, I don't like that potential move. I agree with you - the Betances/Miller duo was a key strength last year that I'd prefer them to retain.

Mike

Re: Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Sat Dec 12, 2015 4:29 pm
by DOUGHBOYS
Bronx Yankees wrote:Forgot to mention, notwithstanding what I said about the Yankees wanting to trade Miller for a starter, I don't like that potential move. I agree with you - the Betances/Miller duo was a key strength last year that I'd prefer them to retain.

Mike
Throwing injury out, best case for the Yankees is that they're robbing Peter to pay Paul.
I would find another marketable player (Gardner, Refsnyder, Bird) over Miller.
Miller is a much larger asset than Gardner and Refsnyder. Bird, their future first baseman.
They are trading the 9th inning in 6o games for a probable middle of the road Starter for 30.
A strength for a weakness.
Something is just off.

Re: Winter Brings Change to Baseball Season

Posted: Sat Dec 12, 2015 5:08 pm
by Teufel Hunden
DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Bronx Yankees wrote:Forgot to mention, notwithstanding what I said about the Yankees wanting to trade Miller for a starter, I don't like that potential move. I agree with you - the Betances/Miller duo was a key strength last year that I'd prefer them to retain.

Mike
Throwing injury out, best case for the Yankees is that they're robbing Peter to pay Paul.
I would find another marketable player (Gardner, Refsnyder, Bird) over Miller.
Miller is a much larger asset than Gardner and Refsnyder. Bird, their future first baseman.
They are trading the 9th inning in 6o games for a probable middle of the road Starter for 30.
A strength for a weakness.
Something is just off.
Could be they just felt the market was overvaluing closers. Look at the cost Boston and the Astros paid. No harm in dangling Miller to see who bites. The Diamondbacks seem to love overpaying for Millers right now. Maybe they give up a young SP and some prospects and the Yankees turn around and reload on setup men.

I also think the Yankees are going to deal Gardner. Could be that a part of that deal involves another big bullpen arm coming back.

The curious thing to me is the dealing of Wilson if you do plan on dealing Miller though.......