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I'm on the verge of not taking Aroldis Chapman in drafts any more.
No, it's not because I place the morals of drafting an idiot who would get physical with his wife and shoot a gun eight times over the fact that he throws a baseball harder than anybody else on the planet.
As a fantasy player, we can't think that way.
The morals of an idiot player and the stupid things they do off the field have to be a footnote for us drafters.
Otherwise, we may run out of players on our lists!

It is common practice for us to draft Closers strangely.
The first Closers drafted are not taken for the category of Saves. They are taken for their peripherals like strike outs, ERA, and WHIP. Hoping that Saves fall into place.
The first Closers taken are more like our 'seventh starter' than first Closer.
There is a problem with this. Especially in Chapman's case.
While Chapman more than fills the bill for the strike outs we seek, he falls down in Saves.

The tradeoff is simply not worth the high cost of Chapman's draft pick.
Chapman has NEVER finished in the top five in Saves.
Never.
In the last two years, he hasn't even been in the top 10.
Last year, 15th.
Aroldis Chapman has become eye candy.
He looks great on our roster. Gives us a warm, fuzzy feeling in having him on our side.
I know. I've drafted him. This year, even.
But, in looking back through those teams, I've noticed the second half finish in Saves for most of those teams with Chapman.

So, I have to ask myself, "Self, is Chapman worth the high pick?"
The answer, "No, you moron."
We fool ourselves into believing that Saves are totally unpredictable.
In Chapman's case, Saves come into focus quickly.
He pitches for a team with these fellas as Cincy's starters...

1. Homer Bailey
2. Anthony DeSclafani
3. Raisel Iglesias
4. Brandon Finnegan
5. John Lamb

Even if Bailey weren't coming back from surgery, that is a forlorn list of Starters.
Some will argue that bad teams get a lot of Save chances.
Maybe. Maybe, in the past.
Last year, the only 'bad team' (way under .500) who had a Closer finish in the top 10 of Saves was KRod.

The last two years, Chapman has finished 12th and 15th in Saves.
As the primary Saves guy taken on every team, those figures are enough to torpedo your Saves category.
Does he make up for the lack of Saves in other categories?
Probably not.
Most other Closers can boast around a 1.000 WHIP and 2.00 ERA.
So, we have to ask ourselves if those extra 50 strike outs he gets us, is worth the lower tier of Saves and high draft pick.
Short answer is no.

Chapman could get traded. That would change everything.
As early drafters, we can draft Chapman with the hopes that he will get traded.
But then again, that brings us back to his morality.
He may just as easily be suspended for awhile. And not traded.
Either way, I do not believe that Chapman is worth his current adp of 58.
I took him with the 81st pick in a recent draft.
Even there, I don't have that warm and fuzzy feeling in looking at him on my roster.
I feel more like I need a third Closer.

Wow. Exquisite timing.

Speaking of Chapman, it now looks like he will be acquired by the Yankees. I'll reserve judgment until I see what they agreed to give up and if there is anything else in the works. At first blush, it seems like a real head-scratcher, and that's without even taking into account Chapman's alleged illegal and despicable acts and possible suspension. Perhaps the Reds were desperate and the Yankees essentially bought low, maybe even very low. Given the lack of criminal prosecution, I doubt any suspension will be material in duration. The Yankees may not trust Andrew Miller's health to hold up, and there were rumors they were shopping him earlier this off-season. A more intriguing play might be to trade Betances. Yes, he's got great potential and is very cheap under team control, but the Yankees got money, and Betances could be a real strong trade chip for starting pitching or another big bat. With years of team control, somebody may be willing to pay a high price for Betances. If the Yankees don't make another move, Chapman, Betances and Miller (in some order) probably is the best bullpen in baseball (which the Yankees will need given the state of their starting rotation).

Mike

Looks like the cost to acquire Chapman was pretty light. No super prospects (not that the Yankees have many of those). Perhaps this is just buying low ....

Mike

The tomahawk chop can be heard clear to Cincinnati. The Reds are following the Braves in giving away players for pennies on the dollar.
Rotowire says to draft JJ Hoover. Poppycock.
It's three months till the season starts. Hoover could be dealt long before the season begins.
Or, at the least, another trade can make Hoover what he is. A middle reliever.
Write every name on the Reds roster in pencil, like the Braves.
An American League team would do well to inquire about Jay Bruce.
The Giants would do well to pry Inciarte or Hamilton from the Braves or Reds.
So would the Cubs. And Cardinals.

It hurts a fella like Gerardo Parra. His worth is being undercut by cheaper 'gets' like Inciarte or Hamilton.
Pennies Prospects are cheaper than Big Dollars and tethered years with the Parra contract.
I believe that like Daniel Murphy, Parra gets either an agents contract or club contract.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:The tomahawk chop can be heard clear to Cincinnati. The Reds are following the Braves in giving away players for pennies on the dollar.

Hmmm...let me think about that analogy. I may not agree with the Braves firesale, but the "pennies on the dollar" comparison to the Reds giving up on Chapman for some of the Yankees farm system flotsam and jetsam is perhaps not fair.

Traded Gabe Speier (minors) and Shelby Miller to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Aaron Blair (minors), Dansby Swanson (minors) and Ender Inciarte.

Traded SS Andrelton Simmons and C Jose Briceno to the Los Angeles Angels for SS Erick Aybar, LHP Sean Newcomb, RHP Chris Ellis and $2.5 million.

Acquired INF Hector Olivera, LHP Paco Rodriguez and RHP Zachary Bird from the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami's 2016 competitive balance draft lottery selection A for LHPs Luis Avilan and Alex Wood, RHPs Bronson Arroyo and Jim Johnson and INF Jose Peraza.

Traded Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to the New York Mets. Received John Gant (minors) and Robert Whalen (minors).

Acquired OF Michael Bourn and OF Nick Swisher from Cleveland for 3B Chris Johnson and cash.

Acquired OFs Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin and Jordan Paroubeck and RHP Matt Wisler and the 41st overall selection in the 2015 first-year player draft from San Diego for OF Melvin Upton, Jr. and RHP Craig Kimbrel.

Traded Philip Gosselin to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Touki Toussaint (minors) and Bronson Arroyo.

Traded Alberto Callaspo, Juan Jaime, Eric Stults and Ian Thomas to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Juan Uribe and Chris Withrow.

Traded Kyle Kubitza to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received Nate Hyatt (minors) and Ricardo Sanchez (minors).

Traded David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve to the New York Yankees. Received Manny Banuelos.

Braves acquired LHP Max Fried, INF Jace Peterson, 3B Dustin Peterson, OF Mallex Smith and the fourth international bonus pool slot from the Padres in exchange for OF Justin Upton and RHP Aaron Northcraft.

So, the big gives Miller, Simmons, Wood, Peraza, Kimbrel, Justin Upton for one year. All hurt but got cheap young talent...Banuelos, Swanson, Newcomb, Toussaint, Fried, Smith, Sanchez, Bird, Peterson, Wisler plus Aybar and Inciarte and draft picks.

Restocking the pond.

Edwards Kings wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote:The tomahawk chop can be heard clear to Cincinnati. The Reds are following the Braves in giving away players for pennies on the dollar.

Hmmm...let me think about that analogy. I may not agree with the Braves firesale, but the "pennies on the dollar" comparison to the Reds giving up on Chapman for some of the Yankees farm system flotsam and jetsam is perhaps not fair.

Traded Gabe Speier (minors) and Shelby Miller to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Aaron Blair (minors), Dansby Swanson (minors) and Ender Inciarte.

Traded SS Andrelton Simmons and C Jose Briceno to the Los Angeles Angels for SS Erick Aybar, LHP Sean Newcomb, RHP Chris Ellis and $2.5 million.

Acquired INF Hector Olivera, LHP Paco Rodriguez and RHP Zachary Bird from the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami's 2016 competitive balance draft lottery selection A for LHPs Luis Avilan and Alex Wood, RHPs Bronson Arroyo and Jim Johnson and INF Jose Peraza.

Traded Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to the New York Mets. Received John Gant (minors) and Robert Whalen (minors).

Acquired OF Michael Bourn and OF Nick Swisher from Cleveland for 3B Chris Johnson and cash.

Acquired OFs Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin and Jordan Paroubeck and RHP Matt Wisler and the 41st overall selection in the 2015 first-year player draft from San Diego for OF Melvin Upton, Jr. and RHP Craig Kimbrel.

Traded Philip Gosselin to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Touki Toussaint (minors) and Bronson Arroyo.

Traded Alberto Callaspo, Juan Jaime, Eric Stults and Ian Thomas to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Juan Uribe and Chris Withrow.

Traded Kyle Kubitza to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received Nate Hyatt (minors) and Ricardo Sanchez (minors).

Traded David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve to the New York Yankees. Received Manny Banuelos.

Braves acquired LHP Max Fried, INF Jace Peterson, 3B Dustin Peterson, OF Mallex Smith and the fourth international bonus pool slot from the Padres in exchange for OF Justin Upton and RHP Aaron Northcraft.

So, the big gives Miller, Simmons, Wood, Peraza, Kimbrel, Justin Upton for one year. All hurt but got cheap young talent...Banuelos, Swanson, Newcomb, Toussaint, Fried, Smith, Sanchez, Bird, Peterson, Wisler plus Aybar and Inciarte and draft picks.

Restocking the pond.

Fans of teams slay me.
They will suffer through a re-building process. Calling their own team many names for getting rid of beloved stars like Kimbrel and Simmons.
They'll wonder aloud what the heck the braintrust is doing to THEIR team.
In the end though, they will stand up and actually back those moves.
Leaves me dizzy.

What the Braves are doing is no secret. They are playing for a new stadium. Accumulating cheap talent for three years.
In hopes that some of those players will be more than just prospects when hitting that new field.
They will then, presumably, be flush with money and re-enter the free agent market to accentuate their new players.
A mix of young talent accumulated and money to buy players later is Epsteinable.

Like Cub fans, Braves fans have to endure the chanceless teams before enjoying those that do.
The Reds look like they are going down the same road.
Making questionable moves as the Braves did when starting on their journey.
I feel that the later moves made by the Braves, were helpful to their final destination.
Can the Reds do the same?
We have to stay tuned.

Yup, that's me...fan (i.e. hypocrite) to the core...

The hardest trade to me was Simmons...still the Braves could finish around .500...

Braves have done well. Their system is loaded right now.

For the Braves, the problem becomes in when to start the prospects clocks.
They have to be right in who is ready to play under the big top and who is not.

Is it just me or did something change with the Braves deals?
When starting their yard sale, it seemed as if any prospect with an arm was ok.
Truly, pennies on the dollar.
The latter deals seem to clearly favor them.
I believe those deals gave Braves fans hope for the future.
Early deals, forgotten.

.500 this year?
That is pushing it. They have a rotation of a wish (Teheran, who still may be dealt) and four prayers.
That is ok though, because their 'real' pitchers will be in the minors.

I believe the Braves are more concerned about fanny counts in the seats.
They should have promotions up the wazoo this year.
There really is zero star power to draw fans.
Freddy Freeman is a nice ball player. But doubtful that fans would go to a ballpark thinking about him.
Sorta Tampa-like with Even Longoria. Just not enough.
And, even if they could finish .500, so what?
Participation medal?

The real deal for Atlanta is a year after the stadium has opened. Their kids should be blooming and so should their wallets.
That'll be the time when Braves fans can stick out their chests a little more.

Sort of a tangent but the Cubs and Braves have done their restocking in two distinctly different ways - Theo's was by design, not sure about Atlanta.

The Cubs purposely focused on developing hitting with the plan on buying pitching when the time was right. That said, while they put themselves in position to hit gold with Jake Arrieta, they got lucky too.

The Braves are primarily stocking arms with the (likely) intention of buying hitting.

There's merits to both.

The success rate on developing hitters is so much higher than developing pitchers - advantage Cubs.

The open market cost of a free agent hitter is more reasonable than a free agent pitcher - advantage Braves.

I much prefer the Cubs approach since developing pitching is such a crap shoot - long term it's still more efficient even if you need to spend to get arms like Lester and Lackey.

i see that after the dayton moore bashing that was proven wrong, dan has moved on to atlanta. i didn't know you did scouting dan?

you haven't bashed joey votto in a couple days.....

While the Braves stockpiled arms, they didn't do too awfully badly with prospect potential, offensively.
Olivera, Swanson, Mallex Smith, and big leaguer Inciarte gives them, at the least, a base of hope.
If they develop and their dart throwing of young arms yields two or three better than average Starters, the Braves will, at the least, be contenders again.
Agreed that the Cubs way of doing things has a better chance of succeeding.
But, Mets fans can tell all about what happens when young arms thrive at the same time.
It's a wonderful thing about building teams. There are many, many ways to arrive at a desired destination.

Ugh, first Cincinnati fans, now Atlanta fans.
There's no bashing here.
These are lean times for Atlanta. And times will get better.
If that is bashing, then fans need to get a little bit more of a thick skin.
Wow.

the braves are going to suck, that doesn't take a rocket scientist.

just find it amusing the chiding about all their deals. they may all be horrible, they may be great. time will tell.

the only deal so far that deserves to be questioned is the markakis signing. everything else, there was a purpose. right or wrong.

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