Jake Arrieta
Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:55 am
I'm a fan of the old westerns. Love 'em. When watching a lot of them, sometimes I associate some names as good guys and bad guys.
For instance, Matt, Wally, Barney, Sam, all usually good guys.
Billy and Wade, gunslingers.
Butch, Cole, and Jake, all bad guys.
Those names have since evolved. Barney, in particular, became a REALLY good guy as in Barney Fife, Barney Rubble, and Barney, whatever that purple thing was that kids liked.
Maybe this is why I'm not too fond of Jake Arrieta this year. Maybe it's that name of Jake that I just can't get over. Maybe a guy named Jake shot Matt Dillon.
Or maybe it's because I didn't own him last year. Yeah, that was probably it.
I actually own Arrieta on one of my DC teams this year.
But, as soon as I made the pick, I had that feeling in the pit of my stomach. And I have considerable stomach, so for a feeling to travel so far and feel so uneasy, I knew I had done something wrong in my own mind.
The feeling didn't come from Arrieta's vision in my head of him.
You know, the one where Arrieta cut through the National League like they were butter and he was a hot knife.
Hell no, that vision is probably why I selected Arrieta.
Why I should not have selected Arrieta, even though it was late in the second round is in the Numerish.
Arrieta will be 30 next year. Before last year, he had never won 10 games. Last year, 22.
Before 2014, he had never thrown over 120 innings. Usually ending up with this injury or that.
Over the last two years, he has thrown over 400 innings.
He threw almost 250 innings last year.
A jump of almost 100 innings from the previous year.
And the previous year was a jump of 80 innings over that previous year.
This, coming from a previously thought, injury/prone pitcher.
Arrieta has become a workout junkie. In Major League lingo, that sometimes is code for a player getting outside help.
In Arrieta's case, it wouldn't be surprising. He has come so far, so fast.
And he has withstood inning increases of 80, than another 100 innings on his arm over the last two years.
A 50 inning jump being considered a lot. What Arrieta has done in that regard is phenomenal.
This, from a pitcher who couldn't throw even 120 innings in total annually for four years.
And yes, I know this paragraph mimics the one before.
I just can't remember another pitcher who has done this. At least in modern times.
It's hard enough to find anybody that has increased their innings by 80 over the previous year.
Arrieta did it twice in a row!
And now, we are trusting a second round pick with that same arm.
We all draft with a visual of the player selected in our mind. Early in the year, with visions of Arrieta mowing down hitters fresh in our heads, Arrieta was going in the bottom of the first round or top of the second round.
Even drafted eighth once.
Since then, I have noticed that he is dropping a bit. Even being overtaken as the third pitcher off the Board in some drafts.
This comes from more study and visuals fading.
I believe that by the time the major drafts come around in March, he will join the tier at the bottom of the second round and top of the third round that includes Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner.
It took some of us a long time to trust Chris Sale with his 'arm could fall off on the next pitch' delivery.
Yet, we gave Arrieta instant trust.
Does he deserve it?
I don't think so.
There are holes in his Numerish.
And I have trust issues.
Plus, his name is Jake.
And that'll never change.
For instance, Matt, Wally, Barney, Sam, all usually good guys.
Billy and Wade, gunslingers.
Butch, Cole, and Jake, all bad guys.
Those names have since evolved. Barney, in particular, became a REALLY good guy as in Barney Fife, Barney Rubble, and Barney, whatever that purple thing was that kids liked.
Maybe this is why I'm not too fond of Jake Arrieta this year. Maybe it's that name of Jake that I just can't get over. Maybe a guy named Jake shot Matt Dillon.
Or maybe it's because I didn't own him last year. Yeah, that was probably it.
I actually own Arrieta on one of my DC teams this year.
But, as soon as I made the pick, I had that feeling in the pit of my stomach. And I have considerable stomach, so for a feeling to travel so far and feel so uneasy, I knew I had done something wrong in my own mind.
The feeling didn't come from Arrieta's vision in my head of him.
You know, the one where Arrieta cut through the National League like they were butter and he was a hot knife.
Hell no, that vision is probably why I selected Arrieta.
Why I should not have selected Arrieta, even though it was late in the second round is in the Numerish.
Arrieta will be 30 next year. Before last year, he had never won 10 games. Last year, 22.
Before 2014, he had never thrown over 120 innings. Usually ending up with this injury or that.
Over the last two years, he has thrown over 400 innings.
He threw almost 250 innings last year.
A jump of almost 100 innings from the previous year.
And the previous year was a jump of 80 innings over that previous year.
This, coming from a previously thought, injury/prone pitcher.
Arrieta has become a workout junkie. In Major League lingo, that sometimes is code for a player getting outside help.
In Arrieta's case, it wouldn't be surprising. He has come so far, so fast.
And he has withstood inning increases of 80, than another 100 innings on his arm over the last two years.
A 50 inning jump being considered a lot. What Arrieta has done in that regard is phenomenal.
This, from a pitcher who couldn't throw even 120 innings in total annually for four years.
And yes, I know this paragraph mimics the one before.
I just can't remember another pitcher who has done this. At least in modern times.
It's hard enough to find anybody that has increased their innings by 80 over the previous year.
Arrieta did it twice in a row!
And now, we are trusting a second round pick with that same arm.
We all draft with a visual of the player selected in our mind. Early in the year, with visions of Arrieta mowing down hitters fresh in our heads, Arrieta was going in the bottom of the first round or top of the second round.
Even drafted eighth once.
Since then, I have noticed that he is dropping a bit. Even being overtaken as the third pitcher off the Board in some drafts.
This comes from more study and visuals fading.
I believe that by the time the major drafts come around in March, he will join the tier at the bottom of the second round and top of the third round that includes Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner.
It took some of us a long time to trust Chris Sale with his 'arm could fall off on the next pitch' delivery.
Yet, we gave Arrieta instant trust.
Does he deserve it?
I don't think so.
There are holes in his Numerish.
And I have trust issues.
Plus, his name is Jake.
And that'll never change.
