The Silent Killer
Posted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:26 pm
417 times, a player hit the reserve or disabled list last year.
With some players having multiple injury, there were 463 reasons why players were put on the 'bad lists'.
The shoulder acconuted for 80 such visits.
No other body part came close.
The elbow (38), the arm (37), the knee (35), the back (31), and the dreaded Tommy John (30).
These injuries happen often. Yet, we are surprised.
When injuries happen at the beginning of the year, we see posts like, "I can't believe how many injuries there are this year!!!"
Truth is, it happens every year.
And even after all these injuries, nobody projects them.
We project every stat imaginable.
But when projecting these stats, we virtually leave out injury.
We think of injury as unpredictable.
Yet, we diminish players like Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Tulo because of prior injury.
Injuries can afflict any player.
The fantasy baseball habit for us though, is to look at a players past.
We'll even call a player 'injury prone'.
Each injury is different. Before last year, I would have called Ellsbury 'unlucky' more than 'injury prone'.
His injuries were more about being in the wrong place at the wrong time rather than his health.
We think of Goldschmidt getting hurt two years ago as unlucky.
We never think of Anthony Rizzo as lucky.
Goldschmidt got hit by a pitch two years ago that ended his season. Unlucky.
Anthony Rizzo led the league in getting hit by a pitch. His style of hitting invites the hit by pitch.
Yet, he never made a trip to the disabled list. Lucky.
But, we don't quantify 'lucky'.
At least for injuries.
In fact, Goldschmidt carries a demerit for missing time. It's not a large demerit. More like an afterthought.
For Rizzo, it seems to be no thought at all.
A Rizzo owner has never been penalized for his style of hitting.
It's a little like drafting Chris Sale.
Sale has never penalized a player for taking him with his violent delivery, so drafters pretend that since it hasn't happened in the past, it won't happen in their future.
Brett Lawrie is not the fantasy player that most thought he'd be.
His style of play won't let him.
I don't make projections, but if I did, I would make Lawrie's based on 110 games.
He's an injury waiting to happen.
The more movement a player has on the field, the more chance of injury.
Middle of the diamond players get hurt more than corners.
Players like Pedroia, Lawrie, or Adam Eaton fly around the field with reckless abondon.
To a baseball fan, it's cool.
To an owner, it's Hell.
I see projections of Adam Eaton playing 155 games and having over 600 at bats.
Nobody likes to project injury.
They should.
I'd never project Eaton for over 125 games.
I know. I know.
He played in 153 games last year.
In his pro career, it was the most games ever played.
Before that, he had played 130 games in the Minors as his most complete year.
When we do look at a players past for injury, we have to look at the whole picture, not just the one last year provided.
I look for players who play under control.
Baseball fans consider Robby Cano 'lazy'.
As his fantasy owner, I'd say don't change a thing.
Mike Trout jumps up on fances. Perfect.
Adam Eaton crashes into fences. No thanks.
We can't foresee alot of injury.
Pitchers being chief among them.
At the same time, we can mitigate the loss from injury by a players style of play.
They give hints, just as their sabr stats give us hints.
It's up to us to decide which hints to use and which to disregard.
With some players having multiple injury, there were 463 reasons why players were put on the 'bad lists'.
The shoulder acconuted for 80 such visits.
No other body part came close.
The elbow (38), the arm (37), the knee (35), the back (31), and the dreaded Tommy John (30).
These injuries happen often. Yet, we are surprised.
When injuries happen at the beginning of the year, we see posts like, "I can't believe how many injuries there are this year!!!"
Truth is, it happens every year.
And even after all these injuries, nobody projects them.
We project every stat imaginable.
But when projecting these stats, we virtually leave out injury.
We think of injury as unpredictable.
Yet, we diminish players like Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Tulo because of prior injury.
Injuries can afflict any player.
The fantasy baseball habit for us though, is to look at a players past.
We'll even call a player 'injury prone'.
Each injury is different. Before last year, I would have called Ellsbury 'unlucky' more than 'injury prone'.
His injuries were more about being in the wrong place at the wrong time rather than his health.
We think of Goldschmidt getting hurt two years ago as unlucky.
We never think of Anthony Rizzo as lucky.
Goldschmidt got hit by a pitch two years ago that ended his season. Unlucky.
Anthony Rizzo led the league in getting hit by a pitch. His style of hitting invites the hit by pitch.
Yet, he never made a trip to the disabled list. Lucky.
But, we don't quantify 'lucky'.
At least for injuries.
In fact, Goldschmidt carries a demerit for missing time. It's not a large demerit. More like an afterthought.
For Rizzo, it seems to be no thought at all.
A Rizzo owner has never been penalized for his style of hitting.
It's a little like drafting Chris Sale.
Sale has never penalized a player for taking him with his violent delivery, so drafters pretend that since it hasn't happened in the past, it won't happen in their future.
Brett Lawrie is not the fantasy player that most thought he'd be.
His style of play won't let him.
I don't make projections, but if I did, I would make Lawrie's based on 110 games.
He's an injury waiting to happen.
The more movement a player has on the field, the more chance of injury.
Middle of the diamond players get hurt more than corners.
Players like Pedroia, Lawrie, or Adam Eaton fly around the field with reckless abondon.
To a baseball fan, it's cool.
To an owner, it's Hell.
I see projections of Adam Eaton playing 155 games and having over 600 at bats.
Nobody likes to project injury.
They should.
I'd never project Eaton for over 125 games.
I know. I know.
He played in 153 games last year.
In his pro career, it was the most games ever played.
Before that, he had played 130 games in the Minors as his most complete year.
When we do look at a players past for injury, we have to look at the whole picture, not just the one last year provided.
I look for players who play under control.
Baseball fans consider Robby Cano 'lazy'.
As his fantasy owner, I'd say don't change a thing.
Mike Trout jumps up on fances. Perfect.
Adam Eaton crashes into fences. No thanks.
We can't foresee alot of injury.
Pitchers being chief among them.
At the same time, we can mitigate the loss from injury by a players style of play.
They give hints, just as their sabr stats give us hints.
It's up to us to decide which hints to use and which to disregard.
