Talking Baseball Players

[DOUGHBOYS]

It looks like the top subject line has become all about leagues.
Does somebody want to talk about players.
Anybody?

I'll start.
Is Clayton Kershaw worth 10 picks of separation over Max Scherzer?
I believe he may be.
It's nothing against Scherzer.
I even believe that Scherzer is a round better than all other pitchers.
Kershaw adds a certain reliability and stability from team, past, and demeanor.
Scherzer's skills are so close to Kershaw's.
But plays for a team that has wah issues.
Somebody has to change their wah.
They look good on paper.
But personalities like Werth, Harper, Zimmerman, and Papelbon who all should take a hand in being a team leader, becomes more of a nest of baby birds waiting for Mommy to feed their ego's.
Sometimes players like these jell.
Some expect Dusty Baker to make a difference.
Who knows? He could be the right man at the right time, but I'll believe that after I see it.
Till then, I'm comfortable with the degree of separation between Kershaw and Scherzer.

What about you?
Want to talk about players?
I do!
Ask me a question or contribute a thought ot three!

[NorCalAtlFan]

ok. good thread.

thoughts on the 2 rd spread between Pollock and Blackmon? Hell, Betts, Marte, and Blackmon? food for thought

i feel anyone else pulls a 17-43 season on the back of a 19-28 season would be thought of more highly.

[DOUGHBOYS]

ok. good thread.

thoughts on the 2 rd spread between Pollock and Blackmon? Hell, Betts, Marte, and Blackmon? food for thought

i feel anyone else pulls a 17-43 season on the back of a 19-28 season would be thought of more highly.

I feel the adp is flat out wrong on Pollock.
He's never shown that kind of power before. The speed is real. But so is his risk factor.
If it were me alone determining adp, Pollock would be taken where Blackmon could be found.

I also think Blackmon inches up the draft board.
The risk of him being traded to some place like Tampa is virtually gone.
It wouldn't surprise me if he beats Pollock in both homers and stolen bases this year.

Nice start, Bryan!

[NorCalAtlFan]

looks like just you and me dan.

less sexy comp: segura vs aybar. 100 pick spread?

are we back to the piazza and everyone else at C days with posey? is he worth 4 rds of difference?

[Gb2715]

Cano vs Dee? Do people really think Dee can repeat last years career year? In my opinion I would rather take Cano in 4th or 5th than Dee in last 1st early 2nd.

[DOUGHBOYS]

looks like just you and me dan.

less sexy comp: segura vs aybar. 100 pick spread?

are we back to the piazza and everyone else at C days with posey? is he worth 4 rds of difference?

I believe there is four rounds of separation in Posey and others.
Maybe even more if not a Schwarber believer.
If Schwarber were OF only? Well, that's another conversation.
There's just no other catcher that comes close to Posey.
And that is with Posey playing in Yellowstone Park.
But, like all catchers, we're drafting the position, not the player.
Do we want to spend a second round choice(adp 20) on a player whose numbers are in line with Adam Lind (adp 248)?
Posey is far better than his counterparts, but in real numbers, he is average.
It depends in how we look at the draft board and our roster.

Segura is 100 above Aybar?
Give me the discount and I'll take Aybar.
Segura has proven little since his great half season.
He can run and goes to a team that will run. That is the good.
At the same time, his batting skills will most likely have him sink to near the bottom of the D-Backs lineup.
That is the bad.
Aybar is Aybar, Everybody knows what you get.
His name and contract will probably put him at the top of the lineup.
And unlike the D-Backs, the Braves should have few players who will make him sink in that lineup.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Cano vs Dee? Do people really think Dee can repeat last years career year? In my opinion I would rather take Cano in 4th or 5th than Dee in last 1st early 2nd.

OOH, this one is tough.
We're not really comparing players here.
This is more about roster construction.
I took Billy Hamilton in the fifth round of a draft and was criticized.
And I should have been. Hamilton is a one category player and shouldn't be picked in the fifth round.
BUT, I knew who I had and I knew who I was probably taking for the next few rounds.
Billy Hamilton and that one category became important to me.

Now, if you ask who I'd rather have, Cano in the fourth or Gordon at the top of the second, I would answer Cano almost every time.
But, if drafters have a pre-set determination in how the draft will flow for them or even want the ease of stolen bases in their rear view mirror, I can understand Gordon being taken so high.
That said, I believe that Gordon's adp is wrong.
He should be taken in the middle or end of the second round, not the beginning. But I have a feeling his adp is there because the bottom drafters are fearing that this is their best/only chance at speed/avg/pos at once.

[Ando]

After signing a minor league contract with the Angels of Anaheim, do you think Yunesky Maya can contribute on the backend of the Halos' bullpen?

Which 2015 version of Johnny Cueto do we get in 2016? The NL version or the AL version? Or a hybrid?

[KJ Duke]

A DC dual-position similar but opposite special.

Ben Paulsen vs Brandon Moss.
Young vs old.
Did more than expected last year vs disappointed.
Great hitter's park vs Great team.
Both look like platoons, but if they play well enough maybe not.
Who's your preferred late draft CI/OF?

[DOUGHBOYS]

After signing a minor league contract with the Angels of Anaheim, do you think Yunesky Maya can contribute on the backend of the Halos' bullpen?

Which 2015 version of Johnny Cueto do we get in 2016? The NL version or the AL version? Or a hybrid?

Thanks Matt!
I was so happy to hear that somebody got three times Maya'd in this year's draft!
Got Motte?

I'm in Cueto's camp.
The funny thing is in that he is being drafted in heavy hitting rounds.
Most drafts are following along these lines...
First round- hitting
Second round- hitting
Third round-- pitching
Fourth round- pitching
Not ALL hitting or pitching, of course. It isjust the trend for those rounds, so in the next few rounds, hitting is the dominant staple for drafters and Closers start playing into the equation.
Cueto becomes either a hitting dominant team's ace.
Or a late second Ace.
Or, even a pitching hungry team's third Starter.
Really, I think he fills the bill any which way. He goes from a Reds ball park to Jellystone Park in San Francisco.
Pitches for a contender and for a new contract (again).
There' not a lot NOT to like here.

[Fourslot40]

Jesus Sucre vs. Max Stassi

[DOUGHBOYS]

A DC dual-position similar but opposite special.

Ben Paulsen vs Brandon Moss.
Young vs old.
Did more than expected last year vs disappointed.
Great hitter's park vs Great team.
Both look like platoons, but if they play well enough maybe not.
Who's your preferred late draft CI/OF?

Awesome question...

I believe Moss has had his best year's in the American League. With Adams and even Holliday pushing him for time, Moss is going to have to start hitting in Spring Training to be even the best part of a platoon.
Moss .230 average is for real. The shift and his approach have sealed that. His power is still real, but I'd be more afraid of reaching enough at bats to manifest that power.

Paulsen benefits from the Dickerson trade. He is one outfield injury away from being used (again) in left field, along with being the better part of a platoon at first base with Mark Reynolds.
I saw Paulsen play two minor league games. He hit three homers in one game, two in the other.
I'm his good luck charm.
Paulsen is an average hitter. But, at Coors Field, average hitters turn to better than average hitters. It's why LeMahieu is being overdrafted (do you really think he steals those sacks again).
Even if platooned, Paulsen gets more at bats than Moss. And his batting average will be 40 points higher.
And, as long as I go to his games, he buries Moss in power as well!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Jesus Sucre vs. Max Stassi

zero fantasy benefit.
But, I have a feeling you know that.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Jesus Sucre vs. Max Stassi

zero fantasy benefit.
But, I have a feeling you know that.

But isn't it great to be talking about players?

[Fast Eddie]

Jon Lucroy vs Sal Perez?? Interchanging ADPs around 107 overall...
Memory of 2014 4th place MVP or 2015 World Series MVP???
Prefer a player who publicly demands a trade...err...except to THOSE eight cities, of course (insert Doughy rant here) or who publicly demands an unprecedented restructuring of his contract since he...err...didn't really mean to sign the first one, of course (or here Doughy!)

[DOUGHBOYS]

Jon Lucroy vs Sal Perez?? Interchanging ADPs around 107 overall...
Memory of 2014 4th place MVP or 2015 World Series MVP???
Prefer a player who publicly demands a trade...err...except to THOSE eight cities, of course (insert Doughy rant here) or who publicly demands an unprecedented restructuring of his contract since he...err...didn't really mean to sign the first one, of course (or here Doughy!)

Love this question!!!

Mostly because I don't think it's even close and I know that many, many of you folks will disagree with me.
BUT, that is what message boards are for, right?

Sal Perez had 160 more at bats than Lucroy last year. He scored one more run than Lucroy.
Perez has more power, but it is a little bit negated by playing in Kansas City and not hitting in the middle of the lineup.
Perez can hit five to seven more homers than Lucroy and still trail him in rbi.
And, Lucroy is a given to have a better batting average.
I like Lucroy, at least, a full round ahead of Perez and maybe even more.
I have drafted Lucroy a couple of times.
Not surprisingly, I haven't taken Sal yet.

On the fence about Lucroy 'demanding' a trade. I can understand not wanting to play for losers.
But I don't think that's the full story. I don't believe he ever really backed Ryan Braun being re-accepted by his team and organization and believe he wants to get away from the situation.
It should be interesting to see where he goes if traded.
Milwaukee's a great place to hit.

[Edwards Kings]

Joey V....



Covered!

Daniel Murphy (cast off with a discount) or Anthony Rendon (faded glory)?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Murphy is an offensive innings eater. Filler for your team.
A lot of folks thought he'd cash in on a power ladened playoffs.
GM's are smarter than that and know that Murphy has never hit more than 15 homers in a season.
What's alarming about Murphy is that he was an opportunist on the base paths, stealing 23 bases, just two years before stealing only two bases last year.
Murphy is 'that guy'.
That guy that won't hurt your average. And he does it at both 2B and 3B.

Rendon is going almost 100 clicks higher. His ceiling has yet to be determined, so drafters are panning for gold with him.
Like Murphy, eligible at two positions.
Like Pollock this year, Rendon was overdrafted last year.
Drafters see a great year and think it continues. It's just not so with a lot of breakout years.
And at that price, it hurts.
Now, Rendon is going in the bottom of the fifth round, punished for being hurt last year. A lot of drafters adore dual/positionality, this is a large factor in why he has even retained fifth round status..
Washington was a disjointed offense last year.
On paper, they looked like The Beatles.
On the field, they looked like Bryce Harper and The Pips.
I believe that Rendon could return fifth round numbers if hitting in front of Harper, which is the plan.
It is probably the best place in baseball to hit and he should take advantage.

[Bronx Yankees]

Here's one for you, Dan. I call it the battle of the five-category OFs. In the late-1st round through the mid-2nd round, we frequently see the following OFs come off the board: McCutchen, Betts, Pollock, Springer, Blackmon and Marte. They all have certain strengths, and navigating between and among them can be a real challenge.

In the interests of full disclosure, as I debate with myself how to rank those six players, I seem to always put McCutchen, Betts and Pollock in the top half, and Springer, Blackmon and Marte in the second half. My bias seems to have McCutchen first, and that still is how I rank them today, but I am really high on Betts and Pollock and am trying to figure out if McCutchen SHOULD be ranked ahead of them or am I just moving him up because I really like him and he has been a fixture on many of my teams for years. (It's almost like I have to detach myself from my man-crush on McCutchen and figure out if I dispassionately think he really is ahead of Pollock and Betts, and others that many have going ahead of McCutchen but, for whatever reason, I do not. For instance, depending on my mood and who is left, I could justify taking McCutchen as high as 7 or 8.) I go back-and-forth on Betts and Pollock - they really are neck-and-neck for me right now. I might give a slight edge to Betts only because I haven't yet snagged him in a league and would kind of like to have a share of him for the upcoming season. For the other three players, I currently have them ranked: Marte, Blackmon and then Springer. I see the potential of Springer and, with health, would not be surprised if he went 30/30, but I guess between the injuries, the pretty high strike-out rate and a likely lower BA than the other five, I probably need to see it first before I can be as high on him as some others.

Just curious how you see them or attempt to distinguish between them. By the way, great thread. Nice to be able to debate players with fellow fanatics.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Here's one for you, Dan. I call it the battle of the five-category OFs. In the late-1st round through the mid-2nd round, we frequently see the following OFs come off the board: McCutchen, Betts, Pollock, Springer, Blackmon and Marte. They all have certain strengths, and navigating between and among them can be a real challenge.

In the interests of full disclosure, as I debate with myself how to rank those six players, I seem to always put McCutchen, Betts and Pollock in the top half, and Springer, Blackmon and Marte in the second half. My bias seems to have McCutchen first, and that still is how I rank them today, but I am really high on Betts and Pollock and am trying to figure out if McCutchen SHOULD be ranked ahead of them or am I just moving him up because I really like him and he has been a fixture on many of my teams for years. (It's almost like I have to detach myself from my man-crush on McCutchen and figure out if I dispassionately think he really is ahead of Pollock and Betts, and others that many have going ahead of McCutchen but, for whatever reason, I do not. For instance, depending on my mood and who is left, I could justify taking McCutchen as high as 7 or 8.) I go back-and-forth on Betts and Pollock - they really are neck-and-neck for me right now. I might give a slight edge to Betts only because I haven't yet snagged him in a league and would kind of like to have a share of him for the upcoming season. For the other three players, I currently have them ranked: Marte, Blackmon and then Springer. I see the potential of Springer and, with health, would not be surprised if he went 30/30, but I guess between the injuries, the pretty high strike-out rate and a likely lower BA than the other five, I probably need to see it first before I can be as high on him as some others.

Just curious how you see them or attempt to distinguish between them. By the way, great thread. Nice to be able to debate players with fellow fanatics.

Mike

We ALL have mancrushes. It may be the same player for eternity, making us married to that player.
Or, it could be a one time thing, a fling.
I have seldom been married to a player. My tastes seem to vary from year to year.
I believe that McCutchen has been unfairly punished by drafters and the adp this year.
They are penalizing him for doing the right thing (by his owners) in playing hurt.
News flash- PLAYERS DO NOT PLAY AS WELL WHEN HURT!
McCutchen is a first round player. The other players mentioned have not earned that.
Betts and Pollock are riding breakout years.
Springer is a player who will have a breakout year and drafters are trying to catch that year.
Blackmon and Marte have taken a different route than Betts and Pollock, ebbing slowly towards the top rounds.
To list them in terms of where they would/should be drafted is folly for NFBC purposes. We have multi teams and it would be very dependant on who was drafted first and what the follow-up plan would be.
That said, I would be hard-pressed to bypass McCutchen for any of the other fellas under most circumstances.
Also, I would not draft Springer ahead of the other players.
Last year, he showed flashes of what he can become. Just not enough for me to risk a second round pick on that becoming reality.
The risk/reward at second round costs is just not appetizing for me.

[Bronx Yankees]

Cano vs Dee? Do people really think Dee can repeat last years career year? In my opinion I would rather take Cano in 4th or 5th than Dee in last 1st early 2nd.

OOH, this one is tough.
We're not really comparing players here.
This is more about roster construction.
I took Billy Hamilton in the fifth round of a draft and was criticized.
And I should have been. Hamilton is a one category player and shouldn't be picked in the fifth round.
BUT, I knew who I had and I knew who I was probably taking for the next few rounds.
Billy Hamilton and that one category became important to me.

Now, if you ask who I'd rather have, Cano in the fourth or Gordon at the top of the second, I would answer Cano almost every time.
But, if drafters have a pre-set determination in how the draft will flow for them or even want the ease of stolen bases in their rear view mirror, I can understand Gordon being taken so high.
That said, I believe that Gordon's adp is wrong.
He should be taken in the middle or end of the second round, not the beginning. But I have a feeling his adp is there because the bottom drafters are fearing that this is their best/only chance at speed/avg/pos at once.

I also like the Gordon v. Cano debate. Current ADPs: Gordon 20 (1st half of 2nd round) and Cano 54 (middle of 4th round). In my opinion, the ADPs are about right for both players. While some may prefer the consistency and perceived four-category strengths of Cano, the ADPs actually reflect anticipated regression by Gordon and improvement by Cano. While that may happen, I'm not sure Gordon's regression or Cano's improvement will be all that material.

In my opinion (three words that translated mean: I may be full of crap; feel free to disagree), many folks underestimate the value of SBs in today's game (where, frankly, SBs are becoming more scarce). Let's look at 2015 results for both players:

Gordon: 4 HR, 88 R, 46 RBI, 58 SB, .333 BA
Cano: 21 HR, 82 R, 79 RBI, 2 SB, .287 BA

So, the players had about the same R, while Gordon had a huge lead in SB and a solid lead BA, while Cano had a big lead in HR and a solid lead in RBI. But, according to the NFBC Player Rater (for what it is worth), last year Cano was the 102nd most valuable player overall (hitters and pitchers) while Gordon was the 4th most valuable player overall (hitters and pitchers). In today's game, 58 SBs are incredibly valuable!

Now, let's look at 2016. Gordon probably will have a handful of HR - doesn't really matter because that's not where his value lies. R might be about the same, maybe less if he gets on less, maybe more if Stanton stays healthy. RBI might be about the same. The SBs - where he gets the lion's share of his value - should be around the same. Stanton in the lineup may cause him to run less at certain times, but this guy's got the green light. Also, he had 64 SBs in 2014 when he only hit .289, so he is not reliant on a .333 average to steal 50 bags. The BA almost certainly is coming down; his BABIP was extremely high last year, even for a guy with his speed. So, if you want to predict modest regression in some areas, you still can see a line of something like: 2 HR, 85 R, 40 RBI, 50 SB, .300 BA. Thus, even with regression in every category and material regression in BA, that line still probably is a low 1st round/high 2nd round value. Whether you want to draft him that high may depend on your own projections and whether you want or like to forego power and buy speed that early. Many do not, and I understand that view. My only point is that, again in my opinion, Gordon's ADP is reasonable, and there is at least some opportunity for profit if/when he falls into the mid-2nd round.

Turning to Cano, how do you think 2016 will differ from 2015? I do not see him improving on the 21 HR in Seattle. He scored 82 R and that seems about right to me. Seattle may hit a little better this year, maybe, but can Cano count on Cruz to hit 40+ HR and drive him in constantly? Maybe he bumps the 79 RBI up to 85-90? That may depend on how the top of the order produces, and I think that is a question mark. As Cano ages, I do not see the 2 SB rebounding into the double-digits; maybe 5-8 SB? I do think the BA will rebound, but how high? A possible projection for Cano is something like: 24 HR, 85 R, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .300. Does anyone think it will be much better than that? I bumped each category up a little bit. Even with a forecast that shows improvement in all five categories - and this may be over-optimistic - Cano's line seems like someone who could or should be drafted between the end of Round 3 and the end of Round 4, give or take.

Straight-up, I'll take Gordon in a heartbeat. On an ADP basis, the difference is a little more than two rounds (Gordon 20, Cano 54) - I'd say that is about right.

Mike

[Gekko]

While I'm not a fan of cano, Gordon's pricepoint is ridiciuously high. If he regresses to his career batting average or a little lower, his sb will be significantly lower IMO. The only way taking gordon makes sense is if you are punting hr/rbi

[NorCalAtlFan]

Here's one for you, Dan. I call it the battle of the five-category OFs. In the late-1st round through the mid-2nd round, we frequently see the following OFs come off the board: McCutchen, Betts, Pollock, Springer, Blackmon and Marte. They all have certain strengths, and navigating between and among them can be a real challenge.

In the interests of full disclosure, as I debate with myself how to rank those six players, I seem to always put McCutchen, Betts and Pollock in the top half, and Springer, Blackmon and Marte in the second half. My bias seems to have McCutchen first, and that still is how I rank them today, but I am really high on Betts and Pollock and am trying to figure out if McCutchen SHOULD be ranked ahead of them or am I just moving him up because I really like him and he has been a fixture on many of my teams for years. (It's almost like I have to detach myself from my man-crush on McCutchen and figure out if I dispassionately think he really is ahead of Pollock and Betts, and others that many have going ahead of McCutchen but, for whatever reason, I do not. For instance, depending on my mood and who is left, I could justify taking McCutchen as high as 7 or 8.) I go back-and-forth on Betts and Pollock - they really are neck-and-neck for me right now. I might give a slight edge to Betts only because I haven't yet snagged him in a league and would kind of like to have a share of him for the upcoming season. For the other three players, I currently have them ranked: Marte, Blackmon and then Springer. I see the potential of Springer and, with health, would not be surprised if he went 30/30, but I guess between the injuries, the pretty high strike-out rate and a likely lower BA than the other five, I probably need to see it first before I can be as high on him as some others.

Just curious how you see them or attempt to distinguish between them. By the way, great thread. Nice to be able to debate players with fellow fanatics.

Mike

You're not the only debating those 6 Mike. Great question.

I probably have the same ranking as you, but have taken Springer higher than some of the others on the chance he stays healthy.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Mike, you say that the 58 stolen bases are incredibly important.
I agree, but at what cost?
His drafters are spending a top of the second round pick for those stolen bases.
In effect, it's a little like drafting Aroldis Chapman in the second or third round in previous years.
Chapman had the strike out qualities of a seventh starter and his WHIP and ERA delicious.
At the same time, was it worth the cost of bypassing one of those six outfielders mentioned before for those numbers?

If taking Gordon, home runs and runs batted in are completely bypassed in an offensive player in the second round.
The six or seven points gained in the stolen base category, lost in the home runs, rbi category.
Gordon's price is just too high for what is offered.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Gordon is one of the reasons why I harp on the word, 'value'.
At the top of the second round, he's a mirage of value. Truly, only driven by adp.
Although adp followers think of him now as a 'value pick' at the bottom of the second round, is he?
He'd have to follow up last year with AT LEAST the same numbers to recover his cost.
And with the wrong players drafted around him, still may not be worth the cost.
He reminds me of drafters taking Juan Pierre in the second round in years past.
His drafters regretted that decision.