The Correlation of Runs and OBP

[DOUGHBOYS]

Warning- The following content contains Numerish, Joey Votto bashing, and possibly a cuss word or two....

A fellow fantasy enthusiast told me that Joey Votto is high on the player rater. I wouldn't know. I disregarded the 'player rater' the first year I was in the NFBC. Its model like so many other model gives way too much credit for Stolen bases and Wins.
The player rater is not really bsed on the NFBC even though it's on their site, it's just a faulty gauge in how players are doing during the season.

Joey Votto scored 95 runs last year. That number sounds good to most fantasy players. It ranked him 18th among all players and fourth among first basemen. Votto also hit 29 homers, stole 11 bases, and hit .314
His relatively puny 80 rbi are a product of his adorement of taking a base on balls.
At the same time, his adoration of the base on balls, supposedly, adds to his average in not diving for pitches and runs since he obtains first base....Well....that's the way it is supposed to work.

In my way of thinking, Joey Votto led the league in NOT scoring runs last year. Here is the recipe.
First, we take away the force outs, hbp, errors, and just make it simple by counting hits and walks as reaching first base.
Then, we take away homers. Homers are a hit, but the player is assured of scoring, so we dismiss that for all hitters.
Then we divide the runs scored by H+BB divided by R-HR.
This gives us a gauge in if OBP is indeed successful.

Nobody reached base by hit and walk more than Joey Votto. Bryan Kenny just did a backflip.
Unfortunately, nobody did worse with that OBP than Joey Votto.
Using our recipe, Votto had 171 hits and 143 walks. 314 times reaching base. 285 without homers.
He scored 95 runs, minus 29 HR for 66 runs scored.
So, Joey Votto scored 23% of the time in this fashion.
Effectively, leading baseball in NOT scoring runs.

Votto doesn't really lead in this category, it's just fun to say that.
This statistic is very revealing. It shows that reaching base is not only a hitter's skill. It also reveals that pitchers also come into play. Sometimes they WANT Votto to be on first base instead of holding a bat at home plate. This manifests itself in seeing some other superstar's rates...

Bryce Harper 25%
Mike Trout- 24%
And we have another monster OBP guy in Carlos Santana with just 24%

So, who is scoring the runs?
Lineups that are loaded and are tough to pitch around...
Josh Donaldson scored 37.5 of the time
Jose Bautisia 33%
Eric Hosmer 36%
AJ Pollock, an amazing 40%

Good lineups is not always the remedy. Miguel Montero only scored 17.5 per cent of the time.
I believe that the pitchers wanting to avoid Montero to face Jon Lester or Jake Arrieta had a lot to do with his percentage.
Wilson Ramos had Vottoian 22%
Kurt Suzuki 24%

Here are the five leading on base percentage players from last year.

Harper- .460 25%
Votto- .459 23%
Cabrera-.440 22%
Goldschmidt- .435 26%
Trout-.402 24%

Josh Donaldson, an OBP of .371 scored more runs than all those OBP monsters. Pollock third with a .367 OBP
My point is not to berate Joey Votto. That's just a bonus. My point is that OBP or any statistic for that matter should not be treated with the reverance that Bryan Kenny treats it.
Kenny gets a mat, lays it on the ground, points his head towards Votto, and bows five times each day.
For fantasy purposes, OBP does not equal runs.
Be cognizant of other factors. Batting position, the lineup, etc

Oh, and I promised a cuss word....SCHUCKS!

PS- Get well wishes for Alan Greenberg's son who was admitted to the E.R. last night.
Best wishes also for the Greenberg family and hopes that everything will turn out ok....

[TOXIC ASSETS]

So Votto's on your radar for this season?

[Ando]

Thoughts and prayers your way, Alan.