Trout Harper Goldy....Then What?

[DOUGHBOYS]

There has been so much written about who should be the first pick this year.
Who cares?
I mean really.
Only one of us will get that first pick.
All of us have different thoughts in who to take in those first three spots and mostly it's those same names.
But, what about AFTER we've rostered on of those big boys?

At random, I took part of one of the drafts that Greg posted below...

Round 1:
1 1 Mike Trout CF
1 2 Paul Goldschmidt1B
1 3 Bryce Harper RF
1 4 Josh Donaldson 3B
1 5 Clayton KershawSP
1 6 Miguel Cabrera 1B
1 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
1 8 Andrew McCutchenCF
1 9 Giancarlo StantonRF
1 10 Anthony Rizzo 1B
1 11 Manny Machado 3B
1 12 Carlos Correa SS
1 13 Jose Altuve 2B
1 14 A.J. Pollock CF
1 15 Kris Bryant 3B

Round 2:
2 1 Dee Gordon 2B
2 2 Edwin Encarnacion1B
2 3 Jose Bautista RF
2 4 Max Scherzer SP
2 5 Mookie Betts CF
2 6 Starling Marte LF
2 7 Chris Davis 1B
2 8 Chris Sale SP
2 9 Jose Abreu 1B
2 10 Buster Posey C
2 11 George Springer RF
2 12 Jake Arrieta SP
2 13 Madison BumgarnerSP
2 14 Nelson Cruz RF
2 15 Matt Harvey SP

Round 3:
3 1 Joey Votto 1B
3 2 Jose Fernandez SP
3 3 Gerrit Cole SP
3 4 Charlie BlackmonCF
3 5 J.D. Martinez RF
3 6 Zack Greinke SP
3 7 Jacob deGrom SP
3 8 Justin Upton LF
3 9 Stephen Strasburg SP
3 10 Todd Frazier 3B
3 11 David Price SP
3 12 Dallas Keuchel SP
3 13 Corey Kluber SP
3 14 Troy Tulowitzki SS
3 15 Kyle Schwarber LF

Pick one selected Trout, then followed up with Harvey and Votto.
Pick two selected Goldy, then Cruz and Jose Fernandez
Pick three selected Harper, then Bumgarner and Cole

First, let's forget about how we feel about the individual players and look at it from pure roster construction.

Trout, Harvey, Votto
Goldy, Cruz, Fernandez
Harper, Bumgarner, Cole

I believe the overriding temptation is to draft as the Harper drafter has done.
Secure in getting one of the Big Three hitters and fearing that the draft will swallow all the aces, the temptation is to get your pitching while you can.
It also frees rounds 4/5 to cover more hitting.
A lot of the top three drafters are pairing their aces at this turn. It's a trend that I believe will continue into the Main Events.
Supply and demand dictates our drafts.
The supply of having one of the Big Three almost demands that at least one ace be taken at the 2/3 turn.
Ok, the real supply and demand is that perceived aces will be done by the drafters select in the 4/5 rounds.

The Trout and Goldy drafters did the same thing, only in reverse.
With Goldy in hand and his supposed 15 sb's intact, that drafter went for more power in Cruz, and an ace.
With Trout in hand, his drafter went for a 1B that will give him Goldy-Lite numbers, and an ace.
These drafters fear being too hitting light if selecting two aces.

What would you do?
I have had two drafts where I got a top three pick.
Once selecting two aces.
Once selecting Goldy and pairing him with power and an ace.
There is no right answer.
That decision will be based on our tolerance level of where we want to be 'short'.
If not wanting to be short in perceived aces, we will select two Starters. In hopes that one of the Big 3 will shoulder the hitting miss with those two rounds.

To tell the truth, I am still wrestling in my mind what to do in the Main Event should I get a top three pick.
I believe by then, that Jake Arrieta will fall and be available for those drafters as well.
I don't believe that most Main Eventers will find Arrieta appetizing as a second round pick. Preferring to stay with hitting and if wanting aces, procuring them in the 3/4 rounds.
So unless a desperado drafter in 4-15 spots select a pitcher, every pitcher but Kershaw and Scherzer could be available for the Big 3 drafters.
Inviting pitching selections.
Like said, I'm still at odds in who to take.
Maybe I should just start out with Kershaw

[Edwards Kings]

I had #1 last year as you remember and I went Trout, Marte, Sale. Power, speed (but no Judy), anchor. After that, for the rest of the first 10 rounds, I went hitter/pitcher at the turn. Other than not paying enough attention to steals (after all, Trout was going to steal more), hitting wise it worked out fine for the other counting stats (had 41.0 points out of HR, RBI and Runs).

I would follow the same path if given the opportunity this year.

[Bronx Yankees]

There has been so much written about who should be the first pick this year.
Who cares?
I mean really.
Only one of us will get that first pick.
All of us have different thoughts in who to take in those first three spots and mostly it's those same names.
But, what about AFTER we've rostered on of those big boys?

At random, I took part of one of the drafts that Greg posted below...

Round 1:
1 1 Mike Trout CF
1 2 Paul Goldschmidt1B
1 3 Bryce Harper RF
1 4 Josh Donaldson 3B
1 5 Clayton KershawSP
1 6 Miguel Cabrera 1B
1 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
1 8 Andrew McCutchenCF
1 9 Giancarlo StantonRF
1 10 Anthony Rizzo 1B
1 11 Manny Machado 3B
1 12 Carlos Correa SS
1 13 Jose Altuve 2B
1 14 A.J. Pollock CF
1 15 Kris Bryant 3B

Round 2:
2 1 Dee Gordon 2B
2 2 Edwin Encarnacion1B
2 3 Jose Bautista RF
2 4 Max Scherzer SP
2 5 Mookie Betts CF
2 6 Starling Marte LF
2 7 Chris Davis 1B
2 8 Chris Sale SP
2 9 Jose Abreu 1B
2 10 Buster Posey C
2 11 George Springer RF
2 12 Jake Arrieta SP
2 13 Madison BumgarnerSP
2 14 Nelson Cruz RF
2 15 Matt Harvey SP

Round 3:
3 1 Joey Votto 1B
3 2 Jose Fernandez SP
3 3 Gerrit Cole SP
3 4 Charlie BlackmonCF
3 5 J.D. Martinez RF
3 6 Zack Greinke SP
3 7 Jacob deGrom SP
3 8 Justin Upton LF
3 9 Stephen Strasburg SP
3 10 Todd Frazier 3B
3 11 David Price SP
3 12 Dallas Keuchel SP
3 13 Corey Kluber SP
3 14 Troy Tulowitzki SS
3 15 Kyle Schwarber LF

Pick one selected Trout, then followed up with Harvey and Votto.
Pick two selected Goldy, then Cruz and Jose Fernandez
Pick three selected Harper, then Bumgarner and Cole

First, let's forget about how we feel about the individual players and look at it from pure roster construction.

Trout, Harvey, Votto
Goldy, Cruz, Fernandez
Harper, Bumgarner, Cole

I believe the overriding temptation is to draft as the Harper drafter has done.
Secure in getting one of the Big Three hitters and fearing that the draft will swallow all the aces, the temptation is to get your pitching while you can.
It also frees rounds 4/5 to cover more hitting.
A lot of the top three drafters are pairing their aces at this turn. It's a trend that I believe will continue into the Main Events.
Supply and demand dictates our drafts.
The supply of having one of the Big Three almost demands that at least one ace be taken at the 2/3 turn.
Ok, the real supply and demand is that perceived aces will be done by the drafters select in the 4/5 rounds.

The Trout and Goldy drafters did the same thing, only in reverse.
With Goldy in hand and his supposed 15 sb's intact, that drafter went for more power in Cruz, and an ace.
With Trout in hand, his drafter went for a 1B that will give him Goldy-Lite numbers, and an ace.
These drafters fear being too hitting light if selecting two aces.

What would you do?
I have had two drafts where I got a top three pick.
Once selecting two aces.
Once selecting Goldy and pairing him with power and an ace.
There is no right answer.
That decision will be based on our tolerance level of where we want to be 'short'.
If not wanting to be short in perceived aces, we will select two Starters. In hopes that one of the Big 3 will shoulder the hitting miss with those two rounds.

To tell the truth, I am still wrestling in my mind what to do in the Main Event should I get a top three pick.
I believe by then, that Jake Arrieta will fall and be available for those drafters as well.
I don't believe that most Main Eventers will find Arrieta appetizing as a second round pick. Preferring to stay with hitting and if wanting aces, procuring them in the 3/4 rounds.
So unless a desperado drafter in 4-15 spots select a pitcher, every pitcher but Kershaw and Scherzer could be available for the Big 3 drafters.
Inviting pitching selections.
Like said, I'm still at odds in who to take.
Maybe I should just start out with Kershaw

I find it interesting how the perception of optimal fantasy baseball strategies has evolved over the years. Dan, I'm not taking issue with anything you wrote, but the "question" now being presented to drafters is that if you have the first pick in the draft at 1.1, and go hitting, is whether you go pitching at 2.15 AND 3.1 or instead draft one pitcher and one hitter. The other option - which perhaps seems like a crazy notion these days - is to go hitting at 1.1, 2.15 and 3.1, and then turn to pitching starting at 4.15. For so many years, there was a mantra that you should load up on hitters and wait on pitchers. I think the NFBC has been ahead of the curve in recognizing the value of elite starting pitchers - certainly ahead of many industry writers/experts - but is going hitter, hitter, hitter, and then pitcher (and perhaps pitcher at 5.1) not even an option any more?

Let's say you like Goldy at 1.1. You could conceivably start the draft with Goldy, Bautista, Blackmon, or perhaps even Goldy, Springer, JD Martinez (although Springer probably is not lasting until 2.15, but perhaps he is there at 2.13 and you get Goldy at 1.3). I would feel pretty comfortable starting a draft with, for instance:

Goldschmidt
Springer (or Blackmon)
JD Martinez
Lester
Gray (or Hamels)

Now, admittedly, you are behind the other owners who drafted two elite SPs in pitching, but aren't you arguably also ahead of them in hitting? If I did this strategy, I might be inclined to take two pitchers in Rounds 6-9 and lock-up a top closer and a solid third starter.

I'm not saying this is the optimal approach. In fact, I'd probably go batter-pitcher-pitcher or batter-pitcher-batter with an early pick, but I did want to comment on how perception has changed and that going hitting with the first three picks seems out of the question now for the owners with a high draft pick simply because all of the top-tier SPs will gone.

Just a few additional thoughts to mull over.

Mike

[Gekko]

this is a fool's exercise. the player inventory and pricepoints change every year. last year i thought there was very good value in waiting for degrom and/or arrieta in the 7th round as an SP2/SP3.

Our job is to find the new degrom/arrieta's for this year. or keuchel or kluber from a few years ago. i'm 100% certain there WILL BE SP that put up elite numbers,and they will be drafted after round 6. now go and find them

[DOUGHBOYS]

Mike, hitter, hitter, hitter is still viable.
Like Gekko and yourself said, it puts a little more pressure on ourselves. Our self-confidence in pitchers studied later, that are not 'deemed' aces, comes to the forefront.
There are hidden gems every year.
We just have to be more right than wrong with those later picks.

During draft season, we get some bad habits.
One of which is to lump all those pitchers that are taken in the bottom of the second round and the third round.
Instead of studying each pitcher, we'll say to ourselves, "Well, I'd like to get Harvey, Strasburg, or Sale here."
Each one of them is different. I happen to think that one of those pitchers will be extremely ordinary this year and not return third round numbers.
At the same time, I love a fella later in the draft, who I think will outperform that third rounder.
It's hard not falling into a roster construction trap.
We don't HAVE to have a pitcher, even by the fourth round if the hitters are too pleasing to pass up.
We just have to have a plan for later pitchers if taking that route.

[Gekko]

my first two picks from my main event team...
tulo - valued "scarce" SS position too much. this year, F position scarcity
felix hernandez - so much for "elite" SP numbers, this year, when in doubt, go hitter

[DOUGHBOYS]

my first two picks from my main event team...
tulo - valued "scarce" SS position too much. this year, F position scarcity
felix hernandez - so much for "elite" SP numbers, this year, when in doubt, go hitter

Somebody is going to have to define position scarcity one day....
I hear about it from the big mouths on radio.
Never experienced it.

[knuckleheads]

Trout Harper Goldy....Then What?

Apparently, Carlos Correa.

I'm not sure that it matters so much which roster spots you fill in the first three rounds, as those players performing as expected. This is why I am confused by Correa's late ascension to a top-5 pick during ME drafts. Any projection for Correa this year requires turning his fraction-of-a-season into a whole-season's prediction. Which is little more than a guess.

If we further subdivide Correa's 2015 season into HIS first half and second half, that .260 batting average over the last 2 months is a lot closer to Addison Russell's .242 last year, than A-Rod, circa 1996. Correa is being drafted where you might draft a 21-year-old ARod.

100 games is not a lot of history...

[Fast Eddie]

OK I'll bite.

I admit I had similar feelings when projecting Correa earlier in the year. I was more comfortable with Arenado and drafted accordingly. But leading up to my main event, I noticed how my other teams shaped up and figured why not take Correa at 6 when I liked Carpenter, Beltre, Duffy, and even Valencia much later in the draft at 3B. The only other SS I personally would be really excited about is Bogaerts and even he cost a 4th Rd pick... Any possible second thoughts were erased during the main when the 5 spot took Arenado anyway

I believe Correa's absolute floor is somewhere around .270/70/20/80/15 which theoretically still could project as the #1 SS in MLB. I am more worried about the broken leg in 2014 but chalking it up as a freak injury. If healthy, I'm not much worried about production from Correa.

His ceiling??? Well since you brought up AROD's '96 season .358/141/36/123/15

I am realistically optimistic about something like .285/90/34/108/25 and obviously hoping for even more!

[knuckleheads]

OK I'll bite.

I admit I had similar feelings when projecting Correa earlier in the year. I was more comfortable with Arenado and drafted accordingly. But leading up to my main event, I noticed how my other teams shaped up and figured why not take Correa at 6 when I liked Carpenter, Beltre, Duffy, and even Valencia much later in the draft at 3B. The only other SS I personally would be really excited about is Bogaerts and even he cost a 4th Rd pick... Any possible second thoughts were erased during the main when the 5 spot took Arenado anyway

I believe Correa's absolute floor is somewhere around .270/70/20/80/15 which theoretically still could project as the #1 SS in MLB. I am more worried about the broken leg in 2014 but chalking it up as a freak injury. If healthy, I'm not much worried about production from Correa.

His ceiling??? Well since you brought up AROD's '96 season .358/141/36/123/15

I am realistically optimistic about something like .285/90/34/108/25 and obviously hoping for even more!

Maybe...but more likely, koolaid, because you are really optimistic about a season better than ARod's 2nd season.

[Fast Eddie]

Maybe...but I couldn't care any less about what A-Rod did in 1997 Mariners lineup in the Kingdome. I do care about Correa hitting third in this lineup with these run producers in this ballpark.
Do I wish I had Correa on every one of my teams? Absolutely not. Not yet anyway.
But I am glad to risk the pick, especially in the Main Event, where the reward will be needed.
Just respectfully disagreeing since you are putting in writing what the little voice in my head was whispering just before clicking the draft button
Good Luck!