Junk...
Posted: Mon Mar 28, 2016 11:27 am
Look what the Orioles have become!
Once a factory for pitching, they now decide whether Chris Tillman or Ubaldo Jimenez starts on Opening day.
That's like deciding whether you want to trim your nails with a hacksaw or chainsaw.
The Orioles up and coming arms like Gausman and Bundy and whoever else they have, always seem to have physical problems.
Ironic in that the Orioles medical staff seems to turn most trades aside because players don't fit their physical standards.
The Orioles fit well in their division though.
Of the top 50 pitchers in adp, only four starters come from this division.
David Price
Chris Archer
Marcus Stroman
Masahiro Tanaka
Not exactly, show stopping pitchers themselves, but at least every team in the division has an 'ace'.
Except Baltimore.
'Ace' is used really loosely since Price is the only Starter who has really had that label.
Baltimore starts Tillman.
Tillman is not even a face card, let alone an 'Ace'.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
I've got the number one pick in an upcoming Main Event.
Traditional thinking says that I should take one of the Big Three. And I probably will.
Still, I my left brain urges myself that I can have ANY player I want. The only pick that allows that.
It wants me to be sure that those three are better this year than the year that Mookie Betts or Giancarlo Stanton will have.
My right brain side is saying, "Big deal, every pick is a matter of taking the best player on the board. Don't overthink it."
Having a number one pick in a big event is cool.
Not only do you decide who you would like, but also know who you'll be rooting for all year.
No matter how many Cutline Leagues or Draft Championship teams we have, we follow the big money teams FIRST.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
We all like to say we're professional in our approach to these drafts, but no matter who you are, we are swayed by things that make us...umm...less professional.
Whether it is being a fan of a team.
Or plain liking a player.
Or knowing a player.
Or liking a player that was rostered on previous fantasy teams.
Or, an easy to root-for player.
Or even something as simple as being up late and giving a nod to West Coast players, so we can watch them.
As I'm getting (even) older, I find myself getting less professional.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
I don't know Patrick Davitt. I am sure he is a nice guy and that he knows his Numerish.
What he does NOT KNOW is the NFBC.
He writes for the Baseball Headquarters crew and somebody sent me this blurb that he wrote...
....'The splits I’m about to talk about are based on splits of owners’ actual spending, not hitting as a percentage of the theoretical league maximum of $260.
In the AL-only league, which I’m playing in, the overall split was 70%-30%, off maybe a point or two from what we might expect. But the split was skewed upward by one owner’s extreme budget strategy. Steve Moyer of Inside Edge tried a near-Labadini Plan, spending $248 of his $260 on hitting and just $12 on pitching. That’s a 95% hitter split! Without Moyer’s extreme split, the league would have had a 68-32 split, quite low for modern auctions. The low split in this league was 58% by Lawr Michaels of Mastersball, who often takes this sort of path, but six of the 12 AL Touts had splits of 67% or lower.
In the NL-only league, the split was 69-31. The high split was BaseballHQ.com’s Phil Hertz at 76%, the low belonged to defending champ Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus at 62%.
The Mixed Auction league split 76-24 overall, but with an interesting divide among individual teams. Four of the 15 touts in Mixed were over 80%, led by Al Melchior and Scott Pianowski at 85%. At the same time, four more touts were under 70%, led by Nando DiFino at 66%.
Of course it might be that none of this will affect your leagues directly, but experts’ drafts do influence home and NFBC drafts, and this sideways drift towards higher pitching spends should be something you’re at least thinking about as you head toward your draft table. '
Patrick, I really hate to tell you this, but experts drafts are both a misnomer and have zero effect on NFBC drafts.
Most, even give us a chuckle.
If anything, we are the trend setters.
How long did it take you fellas to actually draft pitching in high rounds?
'Expert' drafts are quickly dismissed by the NFBC community.
In the mean time, 'experts' are using NFBC ADP in discussing 'VALUE' .
The tail is certainly wagging the dog in this case.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
I miss the one Main Event.
I miss us clamoring for that draft spot.
Having a hundred or more drafters on the Message Boards. Waiting to see their draft spot.
Good times.
I know we can never get those times back. Money dictates our real world and our fantasy world.
To me, KDS means little since the advent of multiple Mains.
For live events, I think it would add a little more color to show up to our drafts a half hour or an hour early to search out our name tags.
THAT. That moment would be the first inkling of where we would draft. And with who.
It wouldn't take Greg/Tom any longer since they can run draft orders privately and have everything set up on our arrival.
If anything, I think this would add to our Christmas Day excitement that the Live Main Event entails.
Once a factory for pitching, they now decide whether Chris Tillman or Ubaldo Jimenez starts on Opening day.
That's like deciding whether you want to trim your nails with a hacksaw or chainsaw.
The Orioles up and coming arms like Gausman and Bundy and whoever else they have, always seem to have physical problems.
Ironic in that the Orioles medical staff seems to turn most trades aside because players don't fit their physical standards.
The Orioles fit well in their division though.
Of the top 50 pitchers in adp, only four starters come from this division.
David Price
Chris Archer
Marcus Stroman
Masahiro Tanaka
Not exactly, show stopping pitchers themselves, but at least every team in the division has an 'ace'.
Except Baltimore.
'Ace' is used really loosely since Price is the only Starter who has really had that label.
Baltimore starts Tillman.
Tillman is not even a face card, let alone an 'Ace'.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
I've got the number one pick in an upcoming Main Event.
Traditional thinking says that I should take one of the Big Three. And I probably will.
Still, I my left brain urges myself that I can have ANY player I want. The only pick that allows that.
It wants me to be sure that those three are better this year than the year that Mookie Betts or Giancarlo Stanton will have.
My right brain side is saying, "Big deal, every pick is a matter of taking the best player on the board. Don't overthink it."
Having a number one pick in a big event is cool.
Not only do you decide who you would like, but also know who you'll be rooting for all year.
No matter how many Cutline Leagues or Draft Championship teams we have, we follow the big money teams FIRST.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
We all like to say we're professional in our approach to these drafts, but no matter who you are, we are swayed by things that make us...umm...less professional.
Whether it is being a fan of a team.
Or plain liking a player.
Or knowing a player.
Or liking a player that was rostered on previous fantasy teams.
Or, an easy to root-for player.
Or even something as simple as being up late and giving a nod to West Coast players, so we can watch them.
As I'm getting (even) older, I find myself getting less professional.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
I don't know Patrick Davitt. I am sure he is a nice guy and that he knows his Numerish.
What he does NOT KNOW is the NFBC.
He writes for the Baseball Headquarters crew and somebody sent me this blurb that he wrote...
....'The splits I’m about to talk about are based on splits of owners’ actual spending, not hitting as a percentage of the theoretical league maximum of $260.
In the AL-only league, which I’m playing in, the overall split was 70%-30%, off maybe a point or two from what we might expect. But the split was skewed upward by one owner’s extreme budget strategy. Steve Moyer of Inside Edge tried a near-Labadini Plan, spending $248 of his $260 on hitting and just $12 on pitching. That’s a 95% hitter split! Without Moyer’s extreme split, the league would have had a 68-32 split, quite low for modern auctions. The low split in this league was 58% by Lawr Michaels of Mastersball, who often takes this sort of path, but six of the 12 AL Touts had splits of 67% or lower.
In the NL-only league, the split was 69-31. The high split was BaseballHQ.com’s Phil Hertz at 76%, the low belonged to defending champ Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus at 62%.
The Mixed Auction league split 76-24 overall, but with an interesting divide among individual teams. Four of the 15 touts in Mixed were over 80%, led by Al Melchior and Scott Pianowski at 85%. At the same time, four more touts were under 70%, led by Nando DiFino at 66%.
Of course it might be that none of this will affect your leagues directly, but experts’ drafts do influence home and NFBC drafts, and this sideways drift towards higher pitching spends should be something you’re at least thinking about as you head toward your draft table. '
Patrick, I really hate to tell you this, but experts drafts are both a misnomer and have zero effect on NFBC drafts.
Most, even give us a chuckle.
If anything, we are the trend setters.
How long did it take you fellas to actually draft pitching in high rounds?
'Expert' drafts are quickly dismissed by the NFBC community.
In the mean time, 'experts' are using NFBC ADP in discussing 'VALUE' .
The tail is certainly wagging the dog in this case.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
I miss the one Main Event.
I miss us clamoring for that draft spot.
Having a hundred or more drafters on the Message Boards. Waiting to see their draft spot.
Good times.
I know we can never get those times back. Money dictates our real world and our fantasy world.
To me, KDS means little since the advent of multiple Mains.
For live events, I think it would add a little more color to show up to our drafts a half hour or an hour early to search out our name tags.
THAT. That moment would be the first inkling of where we would draft. And with who.
It wouldn't take Greg/Tom any longer since they can run draft orders privately and have everything set up on our arrival.
If anything, I think this would add to our Christmas Day excitement that the Live Main Event entails.