Our Game Is NOT Year long, It Is Day-To-Day

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DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Our Game Is NOT Year long, It Is Day-To-Day

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:10 am

During the off season, we study. We all do it differently.
Some believe in BABIP as a prime indicator. Some ignore it.
Some look at k/bb both offensively and pitching-wise. Some ignore it.
Some believe in the Forecaster or other opinion. Some ignore it.
We all have SOMETHING that drives us to draft the players we do.

I talked to a fella the other day who does projections for each player.
I have never done projections and never will.
So, I asked him how he arrived at each projection.
He started talking in Numerish.
I told him that I wasn't as fluent in Numerish as he was and asked him to name the players on his roster after his draft.
When he said, 'Hector Olivera', I asked him to stop.

"Ok, you have a projection for Hector Olivera that is off now. Now what do you do?"
"I replace him from my bench."
I argued that the player on the bench will not match Olivera's projected numbers and that the process has already been torpedoed.
He replied that his projections were only that of a draft day tool.
I dropped the matter.

In our study, we use year-long figures or stats. No matter what stats are adored or dismissed.
We do this because stats over a year long time is a good sample size and just downright handy.
In reality, the sum does not match the addition of parts for us.
This four day period, I am benching Nick Markakis for another player.
He is facing two lefties in three games, one of them being Clayton Kershaw.
His year long stats will reflect every at bat. His fantasy stats will not.
In real life, Markakis is an everyday player.
In fantasy, he is platooned.

Kiki Hernandez has wonderful stats vs. left handers.
So much so, that somebody paid over $500 in faab to acquire his services.
Kiki is a platoon player.
And real life platoon players are tough to roster over the course of a full year.
Especially one like Kiki, who is on the wrong side of the platoon.
The team that has the most lefty starters in his division, is the team he plays for.
Not a good thing.
His owner could go weeks with the high priced faab player on his bench.
Again, not a good thing.
Kiki's year long stats against lefties will probably be wonderful again.
But if they're tough for us to use on a day-to-day basis, they are somewhat wasted.

In effect, year long stats are just another stat.
It is up to us to derive the importance of those statistics.
We know that Eddie Rosario had 13 homers and 11 stolen bases last year.
Moot, if Arcia is hitting the ball better and taking his starts.
Like Rosario, Randal Grichuk has become a platoon player in fantasy.
His owners, waiting for him to outhit Hazelbaker.
Raise your hand if you heard of Hazelbaker before March 1...yeah, me neither.

We draft yearly stats and then grind through them each day.
Rodon drafters hate him. They may love him in five days.
Zobrist owners are questioning their sanity in drafting him.
Story owners rejoicing, talking themselves into thinking that this will last the full year.
Reyes owners are clinging to past yearly accomplishments, slowly recognizing that each Sunday, Monday, and Friday, the penalties they suffer in rostering him.
More so than a year long game, this truly is a day-to-day grind.
And like the real players, the stats that matter most are the one's that are left standing when that grind is finished.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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