Skill and Hidden Luck
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:45 am
A lot of folks think that fantasy baseball is more luck than skill. As fantasy baseball players, we get our dander up. We like to think it is skill that wins leagues. Oh sure, we will take all the luck the fantasy gods will give us, but in the end, we like to think about the savviness, not chance.
We think so much about the skills that we don't give 'hidden luck' a thought.
What is hidden luck?
Hidden luck is born from circumstance.
Here's a few examples....
A team has been leading your league most of the year. With a week to go, he is in the 110 point range.
You are at 102.
The lead seems insurmountable.
His team has a decent week, but doesn't change his point standing.
Your team has a little bit better week and gains nine points to win the league.
While the first place team had already passed most of the 'dead' teams in the league. Your team was helped that these dead teams were...dead.
This will be called a great comeback.
Is it?
Here's another one. I've talked at length bout this one with a few NFBC'ers.
Your team is in first place. Humming along with 120 points. Injuries have not been a problem.
FAAB has just been a matter of fine tuning your team.
In fact, you are not only in first plce, you have the most FAAB money as well.
The team in third place has had a rough week.
They lost their catcher and second baseman to injury. He knows that in order to compete with the teams above him that those players must be replaced.
He FAAB's Trea Turner and Gary Sanchez.
Trea Turner and Gary Sanchez carry that third place team to league victory.
Now, in the end, that team will be lauded for so smartly picking up Turner and Sanchez.
The team in first place will kick themselves for not being as 'smart' and losing their lead.
In actuality, it is all hidden luck.
The first place team may have done the same thing had he needed those positions.
He didn't.
The third place team needed those positions covered. And he was going to pay the money to do it.
It wasn't that he thought Turner and Sanchez would turn his team around, he needed positional coverage.
Which brings us to the last example.
We'll take the FAAB threads from that third-to-first place team.
Jose Peraza- $75
Trea Turner-$65
Jed Gyorko- $40
Miguel Montero- $21
James McCann- $9
Gary Sanchez- $8
Tyler Flowers- $4
The third place team did not have Turner or Sanchez as his number one FAAB pick. He was looking for positional help and thought that Peraza and Montero would be his best bets.
Other teams thought so too.
Poor third place team was 'stuck' with Turner and Sanchez.
There's a song by Garth Brooks called 'Unanswered Prayers'. I think about this song with FAAB bids.
We are disappointed that we didn't get the player we wanted, but as luck would have it, the player we received turns out to be awesome.
That team doesn't have to tell others that Peraza and Montero were the players he really wanted.
He'll take full credit for receiving Turner and Sanchez.
It'll be perceived by all as being skillful.
Heck, the circumstances that drove the bidder to create the Peraza/Turner and Montero/McCann/Sanchez threads need not be even mentioned.
All we see is the skill in taking two dynamite players.
The luck.
Hidden.
We think so much about the skills that we don't give 'hidden luck' a thought.
What is hidden luck?
Hidden luck is born from circumstance.
Here's a few examples....
A team has been leading your league most of the year. With a week to go, he is in the 110 point range.
You are at 102.
The lead seems insurmountable.
His team has a decent week, but doesn't change his point standing.
Your team has a little bit better week and gains nine points to win the league.
While the first place team had already passed most of the 'dead' teams in the league. Your team was helped that these dead teams were...dead.
This will be called a great comeback.
Is it?
Here's another one. I've talked at length bout this one with a few NFBC'ers.
Your team is in first place. Humming along with 120 points. Injuries have not been a problem.
FAAB has just been a matter of fine tuning your team.
In fact, you are not only in first plce, you have the most FAAB money as well.
The team in third place has had a rough week.
They lost their catcher and second baseman to injury. He knows that in order to compete with the teams above him that those players must be replaced.
He FAAB's Trea Turner and Gary Sanchez.
Trea Turner and Gary Sanchez carry that third place team to league victory.
Now, in the end, that team will be lauded for so smartly picking up Turner and Sanchez.
The team in first place will kick themselves for not being as 'smart' and losing their lead.
In actuality, it is all hidden luck.
The first place team may have done the same thing had he needed those positions.
He didn't.
The third place team needed those positions covered. And he was going to pay the money to do it.
It wasn't that he thought Turner and Sanchez would turn his team around, he needed positional coverage.
Which brings us to the last example.
We'll take the FAAB threads from that third-to-first place team.
Jose Peraza- $75
Trea Turner-$65
Jed Gyorko- $40
Miguel Montero- $21
James McCann- $9
Gary Sanchez- $8
Tyler Flowers- $4
The third place team did not have Turner or Sanchez as his number one FAAB pick. He was looking for positional help and thought that Peraza and Montero would be his best bets.
Other teams thought so too.
Poor third place team was 'stuck' with Turner and Sanchez.
There's a song by Garth Brooks called 'Unanswered Prayers'. I think about this song with FAAB bids.
We are disappointed that we didn't get the player we wanted, but as luck would have it, the player we received turns out to be awesome.
That team doesn't have to tell others that Peraza and Montero were the players he really wanted.
He'll take full credit for receiving Turner and Sanchez.
It'll be perceived by all as being skillful.
Heck, the circumstances that drove the bidder to create the Peraza/Turner and Montero/McCann/Sanchez threads need not be even mentioned.
All we see is the skill in taking two dynamite players.
The luck.
Hidden.