NFBC Message Boards

I'm going to start a series about ADP and my disagreement with its assessments. Each day, I'll pick a player who is maybe going too high in one round and pick a player in the next round, who could/should be in that above round. Sometimes, the players will have the same position, sometimes not.




If disagreeing, feel free to let me have it. None of us are right till the season begins.
We'll start at the top and work our way down.

I have nothing against Anthony Rizzo. Love the guy. He exudes a quiet determination that has attracted many fans.
He is a thinking man's player. He'll shorten up his swing with two strikes. He'll lay down a bunt to beat the shift,
Baseball fans love him.
And that may be part of the reason that Rizzo is misplaced in the first round of fantasy drafts.

When speaking to fellas about why they drafted Rizzo in the first round, it is never about Rizzo's abilities. Those numbers, seemingly, taken for granted. The explanations received are about how he hits in a great lineup, hits in a hitters park.
Rizzo has never had a problem with injury.
In short, drafters feel safe and cozy with Rizzo.

Let's shred some arguments for Rizzo.
He does hit in a very good lineup. BUT, that lineup will be missing OBP force Dexter Fowler. In fantasy baseball, the OBP guy, many times, is more important to the drafter owning the players behind him, not the OBP hitter himself.
Also, if Joe Maddon carries out his 'threat' to lead off Kyle Schwarber, Schwarber is not swift afoot and will not score on some hits that Fowler scored upon.
Wrigley has become more of a neutral park than a hitters park. That, is mostly determined by wind direction. Wind direction for the last couple of years has been that of blowing in.
Helping the Cubs staff to wonderful ERA's but stifling some Cubs power.
Rizzo has never had a problem with injury, but he annually is among leaders in getting hit with pitches. He has avoided long injuries so far, but as they say, 'it only takes one'.
Rizzo is in the 13th spot on the ADP list. A solid number 13 in that he has never been picked below 17th in any DC draft.

The player I believe should be going in the first round, plays the same position as Rizzo. Comparing the two, should be easy.
This player doubles Rizzo's ADP and comes in at number 26. A huge disparity.
Freddie Freeman.
Freeman does not have the sexiness factor that Rizzo enjoys. Rizzo has an MVP batting next to him in the lineup, on a team that just won the World Series.
Freeman is felt sorry for, in that the Braves have endlessly tried to rebuild the last few years.
For Freeman, that rebuilding is bearing some fruit this year.
He'll have Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson in front of him, and Freeman will have Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips behind him.
Freeman will hit in a park with a higher fence in right field last year, but those fences will be a whopping 10 feet closer.
Freeman has seen the disabled list three times in his career.
Once, for the minimum of 15 days in 2013 and twice in 2015 for wrist problems.
In 2016, he played 158 games.

Let's compare some numbers. We fantasy folks are LIFO drafters. Meaning that we remember the last results in and if they're good, the first offered at in drafts.
Last year, Rizzo had his typical solid year....292/94/32/109/3
It was the third year in a row that Rizzo has hit 30ish homers.
One thing missing from Rizzo were stolen bases. He has been in opportunist, while the Cubs were building that great lineup.
He stole 17 bases in 2015. Last year, he was only three of eight. His stolen bases, understandably, dwindling in that he has become more reliant on the backside of the order driving him in.

Would you be surprised if I told you that despite Rizzo's lofty numbers, that Freeman actually beat him in four of five categories?
He did.
Freeman's roto numbers....302/102/34/91/6
Freeman's 34 homers was a career best.
Freeman has just six less homers than Paul Goldschmidt over the last three years.
It seems like Freeman has been around a long, long time. But, this year will be his age 27 year. As it will for Rizzo, born only a month apart.
Freeman also beat Rizzo in OBP, SLG, OPS, WAR and a lot of other abbreviations that Sabr's love, but we won't hold that against him.

In the end, I believe Rizzo is going in the first round for the same reason Buster Posey is the first catcher drafters think of.
Name recognition.
You may counter that NFBC drafters are smarter than that.
Well, they are. BUT, I would also re-counter that ADP is NOT made up of NFBC drafters.
The real NFBC drafters are those in the Main Events and other large money events.
The majority of DC drafters do not participate in late drafts.
Our ADP is not made up of those drafters.
It is why I rant that ADP should be taken with many, many grains of salt.
It is better than a mock draft, but it is nowhere close to where REAL NFBC drafters will be in late March.

I believe that Freeman should be drafted in the area that Rizzo is being drafted now and that Rizzo should be going at the top of the second round.
Rizzo, a bit overdrafted. Freeman, way underdrafted.
Feel free to fire away.

i gotta go with syndergard. knowing that the mets had 9 starters get hurt last year and noahing that guys that throw hard and guys that throw sliders blow out their ucl at ever increasing rates noah noahingly put on 17 lbs of fat- so he could noahingly throw harder. what a genius.

Yesterday, I talked about where ADP has failed in round one. Placing Freddie Freeman in the first round and Anthony Rizzo to the second round,
Today, let's talk about the second round. Who doesn't belong and who should be there according to NFBC ADP.

First as a prelude, let's talk about speed. To me, the speed factor is being overdrafted than any previous year.
It's only natural.
Except at catcher, home runs have increased across the board at every position. Speed has become more of a priority for drafters than in the past. And they're paying a stiff price.
Jarrod Dyson, who has been speed fodder on the FAAB lists in recent years, has been drafted as high as the 12th round. His ADP SITS at 262. Even with a sniff at a starting job (how long do you really think Dyson will start if given the chance?), Dyson is not 18th round material. Drafters are disregarding the fact that Dyson has never hit very well. A career 4/5 outfielder, there is a larger chance that Dyson is exposed, rather than flourishing with a starting position.

Here are some other speed fellas and their ADP ....

Trea Turner 11
Jonathon Villar 20
Starling Marte 24
AJ Pollock 34
Dee Gordon 45
Billy Hamilton 51
Eduardo Nunez 114
Jose Peraza 136 (and now being taken in the 7th round)
Byron Buxton 144
Rajai Davis 208
Jarrod Dyson 262

Stolen bases are the Saves of the offense. We feel 'forced' into drafting both sometimes. Requirements.
So, some drafters overcompensate by overdrafting.
Which brings us to the second round ADP player who does not belong in the second round.
Starling Marte.
Marte ran a lot last year. Like Paul Goldschmidt, drafters are more forgiving of a power loss if making it up in stolen bases.
Marte hit less than half as many homers as he had the previous year (2015-19, 2016-9).
Yet, he is being rewarded with a rise up draft lists because his stolen bases rose from 30 to 47 in that same time.
Marte was a judy last year. Judy's have these type of numbers....311/71/9/46/47

I'm guessing the reason Marte is being taken so high is that drafters are wishing and hoping that Marte combines past power with his present speed.
It's doubtful.
Marte lives in a power depressed ball park. His 19 homers in 2015 were a career high. Effectively, Marte has fashioned himself from a five category player to a two category player and being rewarded for it by way of an increase in stolen bases.
That's the way of the ADP world this year.
Speed rules!

So, who should replace Marte as a second rounder?
How about a fellow who beats Marte in four of five categories AND has positionality (positionality is a one word way of saying that a player qualifies at more than one position).
Besides Catcher, 1B and 2B may be the shallowest positions in fantasy baseball this year and Daniel Murphy qualifies at both.
Murphy started hitting during the Mets World Series drive and hasn't stopped since.
Murphy obliterates Marte's numbers....347/88/25/104/5

Murphy was the best hitter on a team that features Bryce Harper. He hit better over a year's time than Trea Turner did over three months.
Murphy has second round numbers and a case could even be made for him being drafted at the bottom of the first round. Murphy is missing the track record leading up to last year. That is what is driving down his price this year.
Like most players we select, we have to decide whether we believe in him or not.
I do.

Just one more note about speed and this year's ADP.
As I stated in the previous post, ADP in our case, is made up of a lot of non-NFBC drafters. Inexperienced drafters will panic and draft the more unavailable, to the amateur eye, categories more quickly. This year, it is speed.
In trying to cover five offensive categories, and seeing a noticeable drop in speed, it is overdrafted.
The more experienced players will 'bunch' speed. They will not overdraft Starling Marte and his possible 40 bags in the second round. Instead, they will take a couple of 20-bag players in later rounds.

Third round tomorrow.

good write up. i like when guys take the contrarian view. you may be the only person that thinks 2b is shallow.

Thanks Mike.

I do believe that second base is shallow in a different sort of way.
Here are the second basemen that are going after the 17th round this year.

Harrison, Josh
Phillips, Brandon
Hernandez, Cesar
Rodriguez, Sean
Panik, Joe

Harrison had 19 steals last year. For the most part, that is all he gave them last year. He'll probably move down the order this year, an abyss.

Phillips is the wild card here. He could thrive in Atlanta or pout his way through the year. Flip a coin.

Cesar Hernandez wants to steal 30-40 bases. He said so.
His Manager, however, may not like that since he got thrown out 13 times out of 30 last year.
The Phillies don't have a lot of outs to give.

Sean Rodriguez is fantasy dead.

Joe Panik plays in the worst power park in the N.L. It stifles Belt. It stifles Posey.
He's a platoon player, but the Giants don't know it yet (0 hr, .226 batting avg in 133 ab's vs. lefties)

So yeah, we can get starting second basemen late, but are they a big help?
I guess that is for each of us to decide.

Third Round

This is a 'them' or 'us' type of argument.
If I asked you who the best Catcher is in baseball, who is the first catcher that pops in your head?
95% of us would say Buster Posey.
Posey is like a warm blanket on a cold night. He makes fantasy drafters feel secure about a horrible, horrible position in a league that requires two of the blackguards.

Year in and year out, Posey hits in the third or fourth spot in the lineup and produces.
Posey meant so much to baseball, that there is a 'Posey Rule' to prevent fellas like Scott Cousins from playing the game right and bowling over catchers. Two years later, it is still a rule that is hard to define.
BUT, the rule keeps Posey healthy, which is what his drafters are most concerned about.

All that said, Posey is being taken too high. Third round high.
Posey has slowly done something that ADP'ers haven't realized, he has come back to the group of Catchers once behind him.
Over the last three years, Posey's home run totals have fallen from 22 in 2014, 19 in 2015, to 14 in 2016.
His .288 average in 2016, 30 points below his 2015 batting average.
Posey is turning 30 this year. I don't know how old that is in Catcher years.
Posey led Catchers in only one category last year, runs scored.
He IS a safe and cozy pick, but in the third round, it is too expensive for that warm blankie.

Both Gary Sanchez and Jonathon Lucroy are being taken in the fourth round.
In different ways, both may offer more than what Posey has to offer.
Both play in tremendous hitting ball parks.
Both are in the American League.
Both, like Posey, will hit up in their lineups.
Both, appealing to different drafters.

For those who still want the comfy, Posey feeling, then Jonathon Lucroy is your man.
Lucroy beat Posey in three of five categories last year and was beaten by one stolen base from four.
Here are their lines...
Posey- .288/82/14/80/6

Lucroy .292/67/24/81/5

Among qualified Catchers. Lucroy finished in the top five of every category. The only Catcher to accomplish that.
In just two months with Texas, he almost matched Posey's yearly home run total of 14, with 11.
Lucroy also did something last year that few have noticed. He changed his approach vs. left handers.
In 2014 and 2015, he maintained a high batting average vs. southpaws but only tallied one homer each year against them.
In 2016, his batting average dropped to .233 vs lefties, but his 'grip it and rip it' approach made his owners happy with nine homers. This helped in making Lucroy's 24 homers, a career high.
Lucroy is also 30 years of age.
And for those who like to boost value because of this, Lucroy is also in a contract year.

Sanchez is a wild card.
Personally, I would not take him in the third round as I would Lucroy, but I do believe he should be taken before Posey.
In real baseball, Sanchez name would not be said in the same sentence as Posey. But, we don't play real baseball.
Sanchez will hit more homers than Posey.
Posey will hit for a higher average. Everybody else can try to figure out the other three categories.
My argument for Sanchez over Posey is that the home runs Sanchez does hit will dwarf Posey's totals.
Sanchez can be accused of a 'grip and rip' approach vs. ANY pitcher, but it is especially true vs lefties.
Last year, he either struck out or hit a home run in half of his at bats vs. southpaws.
He only hit .189 against them, but eight of the 10 hits went for extra bases.
Sanchez hit .389 in August.
.222 in September
But in September, he still walloped nine homers.
A nice thing to know is that 15 of his 20 homers, came against division rivals.

If you like taking a chance, Sanchez is your man.
If not, Lucroy.
ADP'ers are 'them'. They're the one's who are overdrafting Buster Posey. Not bothering to look before leaping.
As for 'Us', we think we can do better than Posey this year.
There are even two options for us.

As always, all comments are welcome.
Tomorrow, who doesn't and who does belong in round four.

and my new "beat it to death" mantra for 2017= "ceasar hernandez reported to camp at 180lbs after adding 15 lbs of muscle". Is a continuing example how ALL sports writers keep ignoring the reality of steroids. the science says a 165 lb man can not add 15 pounds of muscle in 3-4 months. just can't. they plead ignorance on this but now are supposedly "educated" but continue to ignore the science or continue to be complicit on the issue. btw ceasar- if you want to hit more homers you put on muscle. if you want to steal more bases you lose weight- not gain it. just sayin.

headhunters wrote:athe science says a 165 lb man can not add 15 pounds of muscle in 3-4 months. just can't.

Sure they can...I once gained...oh, wait...you wrote "muscle" didn't you...never mind.

ROUND 4

It's like a siren calling. It is so hard to resist. Like men are drawn to women.
Fantasy players love the strike out. We draft almost all pitching in looking at the almighty strikeout.
Strike outs are the cleavage of pitching.
They attract us and we lose all other train of thought. We try not to look, but they're just so enticing, we can't help ourselves.

Because of strike outs and our irrational fondness for them, we draft two Closers too early.
Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman.
I've done it and I'll bet you have done it too.
The power of cleavage.
Jansen and Chapman are the two pretty cheerleaders in a room full ugly women. And they know it. And you know it.

The truth is that we can't gauge Saves. Aroldis Chapman has been called the best Closer in baseball for years.
A Closer's job is to get Saves, Supposedly, that is why we draft Closer's as well.
But you know what?
Aroldis Chapman has NEVER finished in the top five of Saves.
Ever.
But, we love our dominance. The cleavage of the K.
So we give up forecasting Saves and take whatever Saves we get from dominant relievers.
It's a game we have played for years.
I have yet to hear one NFBC winner of a league credit his victory to the overdrafting of Chapman.

Even though Saves is the category, strike outs are the goal.
Is it a good way to go?
No.
During the last two years, Aroldis Chapman has saved 69 games.
Pedestrian.
Nine other Closers have done that.
Mark Melancon is a Saver, not a Closer.
Melancon does not possess the strike out skills of Chapman.
But he does Save games.
98, over the last two years. 29 more than Chapman.
Over the last two years, would you rather have the 29 Saves that Melancon has over Chapman or the 79 k's that Chapman has over Melancon?
K's can be made up through double starts and other chicanery that we use.
Saves cannot.

Alright, so even though Chapman and Jansen sit atop the fourth round with their ADP of 46 and 47, let's knock them out.
Now, who do we find to replace one of them?
There are several candidates.
After talking up Melancon, you would think I would bump him up, but I can't.
Closers are Closers.
Although we like the cleavage of Chapman and Jansen and the Saves of Melancon, they don't move the needle much in the overall picture.
Flat out, they don't throw enough innings to be picked in the fourth round. And I'm not even sure if any Closer deserves to be picked in the fifth or even sixth rounds.
Closers usually go later in larger drafts because better drafters realize this.
On the other hand, Closer runs are more prevalent in these drafts as well. Although Closers are treated like the ugly step-children of larger drafts, we don't want to be left without either.

I could choose Andrew McCutchen. It seems it is easy to say he'll bounce back. I'm not so sure.
I could choose the home run king in Mark Trumbo. But, there is a reason Trumbo is being taken in the fifth round.
Repeatability. Made up word. But you know what it means.
Will Trumbo repeat. The fifth round tells you everything.

So, I'm not even going to mess with the fifth round and pick a player that ADP has so wrong that he is two rounds from where he should be.
Adrian Beltre.
Beltre is being taken in the sixth round by ADP because of age. Drafters see him as past his prime. They think of Kyle Seager as at the height of his career, so they have him in the fifth round.
Wrong.
Beltre should not only be the equal of Seager, he should be nudged just ahead of him.
Here's the tale of the tape...

Seager...278/89/30/99/3

Beltre...300/89/32/104/1

I don't know why Seager should be going ahead of Beltre if just looking at numbers.
Christian Yelich is also being drafted in the fourth round and he has these numbers...

Yelich...298/78/21/98/9

Are those nine bags that important?
And do you know the last time Yelich stole a base with Stanton in the lineup?
Last May!
Look it up.
Sorry, got off track, but it is just an example of how ADP is so messed up this year.
Crazy.

If having any thoughts or disagreements, let me know.

Great to have you back Dan!

There are always going to be exceptions. The one I have is about Chapman. Two years ago we drafted him in the 4th round of a 12 team primetime event. It was the only team out of the many that Chad and I had, that included him. That team won the Primetime overall that year. While I won't own him much again this year, I sure did enjoy him down the stretch that year.

Thanks Joe!

I knew there had to be somebody out there that had Chapman lead them to a Championship!

He is an 'elitist' pick which is neither good or bad.
An 'elitist' pick is one where we make sure to get not only the best of a group, but the very best.
For instance, if drafting Trout, it is not elitist in that Betts and Bryant aren't far behind him at his position.
But, Kershaw, the tandem of Chapman and Jansen, and Posey have all been 'elitists' picks.
The gap, however, is closing for Kershaw and Posey.
Kershaw's back and Posey's power drain over the last three years to blame. The gap after Chapman and Jansen remains fairly wide. although Britton closed in a little after his brilliant year last year.

Thanks again for the response, Joe.