The Power of Confirmation
Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:43 am
One of my favorite picks going into the drafting season was Jose Peraza. I felt that Peraza, with positionality of shortstop and outfield, lwould soon add 2B and possibly 3B to that resume.
On top of the positionality, I also felt he would be a good source of speed.
I drafted him early and often. Usually getting away with waiting till the ninth, 10th, even the 11th rounds.
Then, the Phillips trade happened.
Since, Peraza is a hit with drafters.
He is being selected in the sixth or seventh rounds.
The trade dulled my interests. I had thought that Peraza would start most days at a different position.
For other drafters. it sharpened interest. Now, Peraza was insured a spot in the lineup.
Confirmation.
We play in a game that compel's us to look into the future.
At the same time, confirmation is an even more powerful force during drafting season.
Andrew Miller was being selected in the sixth and seventh rounds of early drafts. With Tito Francona's confirmation that Cody Allen will be the Closer for the Indians, Miller has fallen into the ninth round of most drafts.
Miller was being taken too high in my mind. His drafters thinking that even without the Closer's job, the peripherals would be nice for their staff.
Expensive peripherals, indeed.
Miller is a better real baseball player than fantasy.
His Wins and Saves are depressed by being a middle reliever. His peripherals, similarly depressed as well, by his number of innings.
Miller and fellow CIW, Dellin Betances have incredible k/inn ratios. They entice drafters.
Those k/inn ratios are for real and will probably continue this year.
However one thing is not for real.
I've asked many drafters of Miller why they selected him.
Many gave the explanation that a reliever who throws multiple innings appealed to them. That he had better chances for more Wins.
Miller did have 10 Wins last year. Only three of those Wins, however, came after throwing more than an inning. All three of those Wins coming during the last two weeks of the season. A drafter's mind remembers the last part of a season and playoffs more than the early parts of seasons.
The reality is that Miller was only used for two innings four times during the entire regular season.
Seven times during the playoffs
With multiple innings, the illusion is created that Miller will throw more innings than other relievers.
In reality, he didn't throw any more innings than Jeurys Familia or Seung Hwan Ho.
Confirmation effects us all.
It makes us see things from a different perspective.
For me, it raised the price on Peraza so much, that I now feel he is over priced. For others, it put Peraza on their maps.
A viable speedster.
Miller's confirmation did not effect my view on him at all.
But, it did for others. Maybe they were holding out hope that talent would win out and Miller would get the Closer's job.
Many, many other Closer job's and other job's are awaiting confirmation.
Those confirmations only serving to confirm that our drafting process and ADP are fluid.
On top of the positionality, I also felt he would be a good source of speed.
I drafted him early and often. Usually getting away with waiting till the ninth, 10th, even the 11th rounds.
Then, the Phillips trade happened.
Since, Peraza is a hit with drafters.
He is being selected in the sixth or seventh rounds.
The trade dulled my interests. I had thought that Peraza would start most days at a different position.
For other drafters. it sharpened interest. Now, Peraza was insured a spot in the lineup.
Confirmation.
We play in a game that compel's us to look into the future.
At the same time, confirmation is an even more powerful force during drafting season.
Andrew Miller was being selected in the sixth and seventh rounds of early drafts. With Tito Francona's confirmation that Cody Allen will be the Closer for the Indians, Miller has fallen into the ninth round of most drafts.
Miller was being taken too high in my mind. His drafters thinking that even without the Closer's job, the peripherals would be nice for their staff.
Expensive peripherals, indeed.
Miller is a better real baseball player than fantasy.
His Wins and Saves are depressed by being a middle reliever. His peripherals, similarly depressed as well, by his number of innings.
Miller and fellow CIW, Dellin Betances have incredible k/inn ratios. They entice drafters.
Those k/inn ratios are for real and will probably continue this year.
However one thing is not for real.
I've asked many drafters of Miller why they selected him.
Many gave the explanation that a reliever who throws multiple innings appealed to them. That he had better chances for more Wins.
Miller did have 10 Wins last year. Only three of those Wins, however, came after throwing more than an inning. All three of those Wins coming during the last two weeks of the season. A drafter's mind remembers the last part of a season and playoffs more than the early parts of seasons.
The reality is that Miller was only used for two innings four times during the entire regular season.
Seven times during the playoffs
With multiple innings, the illusion is created that Miller will throw more innings than other relievers.
In reality, he didn't throw any more innings than Jeurys Familia or Seung Hwan Ho.
Confirmation effects us all.
It makes us see things from a different perspective.
For me, it raised the price on Peraza so much, that I now feel he is over priced. For others, it put Peraza on their maps.
A viable speedster.
Miller's confirmation did not effect my view on him at all.
But, it did for others. Maybe they were holding out hope that talent would win out and Miller would get the Closer's job.
Many, many other Closer job's and other job's are awaiting confirmation.
Those confirmations only serving to confirm that our drafting process and ADP are fluid.
