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What pitcher has thrown the most innings over the last seven years?
Before giving the answer, is this a positive or a negative?
It used to be that baseball fans were enamored with 'iron men'. Look at all the glory that Lou Gehrig and Cal Ripken received.
Cy Young records will never be touched, because hardly any Starter reaches the eighth inning any longer.

In fantasy baseball, we love durability. We like knowing that a player will be in the lineup every day.
That a pitcher will take the ball every fifth day.
At the same time, when do we see durability, itself, as a negative?
With pitchers, the most important statistic from the previous year has become a statistic that is not one of the five roto categories.
It is innings pitched.
If a pitcher throws too many innings during the previous year, we fear that injury may bite him this year.
If throwing too few innings, we fear that he'll be under an innings limit.
180-200 innings pitched has become the sweet spot.

As fantasy players, we don't reward a pitcher for leading his team into the playoffs and especially the World Series.
In fact, we'll nick him on our lists.
All he has done is put more innings on his arm.
Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Corey Kluber the chief culprits last year.
ADP has been kind to these three during Draft Championship leagues. I believe that when the Big Drafts are held, those ADP's will not hold up.

Prior to last year, seven pitchers threw 220 regular season innings.


1 Clayton Kershaw 232.2
2 Dallas Keuchel 232.0
3 Jake Arrieta 229.0
4 Max Scherzer 228.2
5 Zack Greinke 222.2
6 Corey Kluber 222.0
7 David Price 220.1

Of these pitchers, only Scherzer and Kluber followed up with a more successful campaign in 2016.

Last year, six pitchers threw 220 innings.

1 David Price 230.0
2 Max Scherzer 228.1
3 Justin Verlander 227.2
4 Madison Bumgarner 226.2
Chris Sale 226.2
6 Rick Porcello 223.0

Price and Scherzer already having bad news,
I am not suggesting that these pitchers will not do well this season or that 220 innings is some sort of magic number.
Far from it.
In fact, both years, Johnny Cueto has been just under the threshold and has performed well.
More so, I am looking at these innings as a negative instead of a positive. Owning a 220 inning pitcher in season, much preferable to drafting one that threw 220+ the year before.

David Price is the answer to the first line of this post.
Price has AVERAGED 219 innings over the last seven years.
Some might say that Price was overdue for a hiccup.
The problem for us drafters is that we have no idea when a malady will hit. Maybe Price's sub par year was a harbinger for the injury this year? But we'd just be guessing.
Is it worse to draft a pitcher who has averaged 219 innings a year like David Price?
Or is it worse to draft a pitcher like Rick Porcello who threw 220 innings for the first time and threw 50 innings more in 2016 than 2015?
I don't know.

Our hobby relies more and more on luck with each passing year. Especially in considering pitching.
Starters tend to throw six innings and call it a day.
This leaves the category of Wins more up to the pitchers offense and bullpen, than the Starting Pitcher himself.
Closers have almost a 50% turnover in that the Closers that go into Spring Training with the job have a 50% chance of ending the year with the same job.
And fantasy baseball drafters?
We're looking at previous durability in a pitcher as a negative.
Our landscape is changing before our eyes.

Interesting topic. I think I've gradually come to the conclusion that in drafting players, I should consider what I know and (try really hard to) ignore what I don't know.

For instance, Price has some ailment that does not require surgery, but currently needs rest. I know this. I'm dinging him in my rankings.

Scherzer is experiencing some discomfort with his knuckle. He may even change his fastball grip. I know this is happening. I'm also dinging him.

Kluber and Lester threw a lot of innings. However, they are healthy (insofar as I know). I'm not going to ding them. They may get hurt; they may not. I don't know of anything impacting their health at this time, and so I'm not going to speculate that they will get hurt this year because they were durable in prior years. If Price averaged seven years at 219 innings, why can't Kluber and Lester give me 200+ innings this year? I'm not going to ding them based on an unknown.

Urias did not throw a lot of innings last year. He will be on an innings limit this year. I'm dinging him for that, but assuming a nice bump-up in innings from last year.

Sale has an awkward delivery that looks like a recipe for elbow problems. But, I don't know anything about him having elbow problems, so I'm not dinging him. Folks that dinged him for his delivery missed out on lots of good fantasy seasons.

Strasburg also has an awkward delivery that looks like a recipe for elbow problems. He may change his motion (pitching from stretch) and his pitch selection in an effort to stay healthy. I don't know if it will work, so I'm not raising him in my rankings because of either development. I do know he was hurt last year and seems to get hurt every year, so I am dinging him for health concerns. While I have a relatively high degree of confidence that Strasburg will provide SP1 numbers when pitching, I can't count on him for more than 150 innings, and that projection may be too high.

Thus, as I compile and refine my rankings, I'm trying to adjust for information that I know, while ignoring "stuff" that I don't know. Will this work? Who knows?

Mike

I like the concept, Mike.

As for weird wind-ups or deliveries, I have dismissed them.
Sale and KRod have two of the worst deliveries in baseball, day in and day out.
Yet, it seems like they also take the ball, day in and day out.
I fear pitchers like Sonny Gray and Lance McCullers. Pitchers who put torque on their arms with their very best pitches, not their delivery of those pitches.
Fluidity in motion is overblown.

Drafting what we know takes a lot of pondering and study out of the equation.
I like that.
At the same time, I have to nick Porcello for throwing 50 more innings last year.
We can put it in the category that I don't know that he'll get hurt, but do know that he has only thrown 200 innings once before last year.
And 50 more innings than the previous year scares me.
So, I'll ding him.

As for Price, I have never seen baseball and fantasy fans go from 100 to zero like they have.
When the news appeared, we all expected the worse. The collective sound fantasy baseballers heard was the scratch of Price off lists.
Now, it's almost like it never happened.
The Red Sox say a little rest and he'll be ok and a fellow in a DC Draft claimed "Value" when grabbing Price in the fifth round.
To me, it's like closing the book after reading three chapters.
This story isn't over.

I can tell myself that I 'don't know' anything about Kluber or Lester.
But, it won't work.
I know that they have been over worked the last couple of years.
It's a catch-22 in our hobby.
If throwing well, accumulating more innings.
Making the following years stats appetizing, the innings, not so much.