Javy Baez or Asdrubal Cabrera? Easy, Right?
Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:25 am
I drafted Carlos Santana in the bottom of the 10th round. A drafter chatted "Good Value".
No, this isn't going to be a 'value' rant.
I don't know or care if others are complimenting or prodding me with a "Good value" comment. So I hardly ever reply.
Ok, I'll get to the point now.
Lets say that I drafted my first 10 players and paid less than ADP.
For some, 10 "value picks".
At this point, all we know is that I paid less for my players than a conglomerate did.
And let's say further that my roster construction looks fine after 10 rounds.
Let's say it looks like this...
C- Buster Posey (4th round)
1B- Anthony Rizzo (2nd round)
3B- Kris Bryant (1st round)
OF- Andrew McCutchen (7th round)
OF- David Dahl (8th round)
OF- Jose Ramirez (9th round)
P- Corey Kluber (3nd round)
P- Aroldis Chapman (5th round)
P- Chris Archer (6th round)
P- Dave Robertson (10th round)
This fella has been told constantly that he has received great 'value.
So, what's he missing?
The thing that leaps out is speed.
Dahl (you know if his injury history translates from the minors to the majors, that fantasy players will be calling him 'Barbie Dahl') will probably have the brakes put on him to keep his health.
Ramirez could get 15 or so.
If relying on the others, he's hurting...or dreaming.
And what about power?
Sure, he has Bryant and Rizzo. But in the age of 38 players hitting at least 30 homers and a whopping 111 smashing 20, two 30-homer guys is now a little thin.
For batting average, a different complaint. It's too high.
I know, I know, you'll say no average is high enough.
And you'll be saying that till the season begins and you see yourself 15 points ahead of the second place team in batting average.
But trailing badly in both power and speed.
Sometimes, it is just as bad being way ahead of a category than way behind.
Especially if Posey or Dahl turn out to have empty average. Meaning that they don't contribute enough to the other categories.
"Good value" is meant as a compliment to most. And who knows, you may want to start with a team like this. It has as much upside as downside. But, I wouldn't say the drafter is any better off than the fella who matched adp or over drafted his team.
This poor fella never received a "good value" chat.
What he got was "I drafted him 2 rounds later in another draft" or "Wow, highest I've ever seen him go!"
Notice how nobody says, "You got no value". It's because every drafter knows that that would or could be a lie.
Anyway, let's see his team....
C- Wellington Castillo (10th round)
1B- Paul Goldscmidt (1st round)
3B- Maikel Franco (7th round)
OF- Billy Hamilton (3rd round)
OF-) Mark Trumbo (4th round
OF- Andrew Benintendi (8th round)
P- Jon Lester (2nd round)
P- Seung Hwan Oh (5th round)
P- Masahiro Tanaka (6th round)
P- Francisco Rodriguez (9th round)
This team may be the polar opposite of that of the 'value' team.
A shoddy batting avg, but it is on it's way to competing or beating the 'value' team in the other four categories.
The 'value' team has a strike out advantage, but the other categories are very close. ERA and WHIP, maybe even leaning towards the unvalued team.
My point is that we can get 'value' with every pick and still end up finishing eighth in the standings.
The sum of the parts much more important than any one part.
In the end, a players selection is just that. A piece to put in our puzzle. Whoever puts the pieces together best, wins.
Easy, right?
We have a hard time going from the draft season to the real season.
We think of Javier Baez as a potential bonanza. Power and speed makes him a possible 30-20 guy.
With that in mind, drafters call his name in the seventh and eighth round.
Then the season begins
We have him on our roster. Available to play in three positions.
We look at the starting lineups. He's not there. HE'S NOT THERE! Damn!
Now, a flood of thoughts go through your head.
Are the Cubs facing a lefty tomorrow or the next day?
Maybe an 'easy' pitcher?
Why doesn't Maddon bench Heyward, He Sucks!
You look for news that may point to Baez starting Saturday or Sunday.
None.
Do I start Baez or Asdrubal Cabrera? At least I know that Cabrera is playing every day.
Fantasy baseball is not like real baseball.
Jason Heyward starts and plays every day for the Cubs because of his contract.
When not hitting during games that meant a lot in the playoffs, he sat. Only then.
In fantasy baseball, we don't start Baez because he was a 7th round pick. We start him when we think he'll accumulate stats.
And when he doesn't start on Friday and another player does, he'll get bumped to the bench by a lot of fantasy owners.
And believe me, where we picked him in the draft is not even a thought in the decision.
No, this isn't going to be a 'value' rant.
I don't know or care if others are complimenting or prodding me with a "Good value" comment. So I hardly ever reply.
Ok, I'll get to the point now.
Lets say that I drafted my first 10 players and paid less than ADP.
For some, 10 "value picks".
At this point, all we know is that I paid less for my players than a conglomerate did.
And let's say further that my roster construction looks fine after 10 rounds.
Let's say it looks like this...
C- Buster Posey (4th round)
1B- Anthony Rizzo (2nd round)
3B- Kris Bryant (1st round)
OF- Andrew McCutchen (7th round)
OF- David Dahl (8th round)
OF- Jose Ramirez (9th round)
P- Corey Kluber (3nd round)
P- Aroldis Chapman (5th round)
P- Chris Archer (6th round)
P- Dave Robertson (10th round)
This fella has been told constantly that he has received great 'value.
So, what's he missing?
The thing that leaps out is speed.
Dahl (you know if his injury history translates from the minors to the majors, that fantasy players will be calling him 'Barbie Dahl') will probably have the brakes put on him to keep his health.
Ramirez could get 15 or so.
If relying on the others, he's hurting...or dreaming.
And what about power?
Sure, he has Bryant and Rizzo. But in the age of 38 players hitting at least 30 homers and a whopping 111 smashing 20, two 30-homer guys is now a little thin.
For batting average, a different complaint. It's too high.
I know, I know, you'll say no average is high enough.
And you'll be saying that till the season begins and you see yourself 15 points ahead of the second place team in batting average.
But trailing badly in both power and speed.
Sometimes, it is just as bad being way ahead of a category than way behind.
Especially if Posey or Dahl turn out to have empty average. Meaning that they don't contribute enough to the other categories.
"Good value" is meant as a compliment to most. And who knows, you may want to start with a team like this. It has as much upside as downside. But, I wouldn't say the drafter is any better off than the fella who matched adp or over drafted his team.
This poor fella never received a "good value" chat.
What he got was "I drafted him 2 rounds later in another draft" or "Wow, highest I've ever seen him go!"
Notice how nobody says, "You got no value". It's because every drafter knows that that would or could be a lie.
Anyway, let's see his team....
C- Wellington Castillo (10th round)
1B- Paul Goldscmidt (1st round)
3B- Maikel Franco (7th round)
OF- Billy Hamilton (3rd round)
OF-) Mark Trumbo (4th round
OF- Andrew Benintendi (8th round)
P- Jon Lester (2nd round)
P- Seung Hwan Oh (5th round)
P- Masahiro Tanaka (6th round)
P- Francisco Rodriguez (9th round)
This team may be the polar opposite of that of the 'value' team.
A shoddy batting avg, but it is on it's way to competing or beating the 'value' team in the other four categories.
The 'value' team has a strike out advantage, but the other categories are very close. ERA and WHIP, maybe even leaning towards the unvalued team.
My point is that we can get 'value' with every pick and still end up finishing eighth in the standings.
The sum of the parts much more important than any one part.
In the end, a players selection is just that. A piece to put in our puzzle. Whoever puts the pieces together best, wins.
Easy, right?
We have a hard time going from the draft season to the real season.
We think of Javier Baez as a potential bonanza. Power and speed makes him a possible 30-20 guy.
With that in mind, drafters call his name in the seventh and eighth round.
Then the season begins
We have him on our roster. Available to play in three positions.
We look at the starting lineups. He's not there. HE'S NOT THERE! Damn!
Now, a flood of thoughts go through your head.
Are the Cubs facing a lefty tomorrow or the next day?
Maybe an 'easy' pitcher?
Why doesn't Maddon bench Heyward, He Sucks!
You look for news that may point to Baez starting Saturday or Sunday.
None.
Do I start Baez or Asdrubal Cabrera? At least I know that Cabrera is playing every day.
Fantasy baseball is not like real baseball.
Jason Heyward starts and plays every day for the Cubs because of his contract.
When not hitting during games that meant a lot in the playoffs, he sat. Only then.
In fantasy baseball, we don't start Baez because he was a 7th round pick. We start him when we think he'll accumulate stats.
And when he doesn't start on Friday and another player does, he'll get bumped to the bench by a lot of fantasy owners.
And believe me, where we picked him in the draft is not even a thought in the decision.
