Luck and Dumb Luck

[DOUGHBOYS]

"It's third and four for the Patriots on their own 26 yard line. Brady drops back, he fires a long pass down the field!....
Moss is wide open! His defender has fallen down! What a perfect throw, it's hitting Moss right in stride...OOOOh NNNNo!
That pass went right through Randy Moss hands! The Patriots will have to punt..."

The above is 'what could have been' for Brady and Moss fantasy owners.
It is seven points off the board for the Patriots.
Statistically, for Moss, it is a target and dropped pass (if having those when he played)
For Brady, a simple incomplete pass.

In football, this would be considered 'bad luck.
Brady did his job. Moss caught most passes that were thrown to him, in this case, he did not.
There is no stat for what could have been, only for what occurred.
Too bad for everybody hurt by the drop.

In baseball, we have to quantify everything. If a player is having tough luck in hitting 'at 'em balls, we look at his BABIP and commiserate with that player on our roster. For baseball statisticians, there has to be seemingly a reason for everything.
For some reason, they want to remove the very thing, that can never, ever be quantified, luck.

Yesterday, Yasiel Puig hit a bullet to the Giants shortstop that was caught. He jumped and threw back his head as if the world conspired against him in not receiving a hit.
Giants broadcasters even replayed his hit and reaction, giving him the business by saying something like, "OH NO, I HIT A LINE DRIVE AND IT WAS CAUGHT! THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT HAS EVER HAPPENED!"
Like Brady, Puig did everything right.
Unlike Brady, it doesn't simply count as an 0-1.
Sub-stats are the rage.
Puig will get credit for a tough BABIP.
He'll get credit for 'barreling' the ball.
He'll get credit for hard contact.
The list goes on.
It's gotten a little out of hand.

They say everything equals out. And yes, nobody knows who 'they' are.
Brady could throw a swing pass in the next game against a failing defense that will go for 74 yards.
Somehow, it'll make up for the Moss drop.
Puig will doink a double on a squibber over the first baseman's head, making up for his liner to shortstop.
That good luck does not have to be quantified.

A few years ago, I got into a little hot water with a so-called 'expert' writer for fantasy baseball.
Every time I saw Chris Johnson of Atlanta hit, he was grounding a ball between third and short or squibbing a singe over the infield. For two weeks, I made sure to record every Atlanta game to make sure my eyes were really seeing what they were seeing.
And yes, between a couple of well struck balls were a plethora of crappily hit balls that resulted in hits.
I labeled Johnson as damn lucky and resolved not to draft him in the next years drafts.
Johnson hit over .320 that year, and I felt he deserved a .270 average.
In an 'experts' draft that I was invited to (my very invitation made it 'NOT an expert's draft), a fellow over drafted (in my mind) Chris Johnson.
I decided to call Johnson out and told the drafter how lucky and fortunate Johnson had been.
The drafter responded like my wife responds when I tell her that her dress looks a little tight.
He responded, 'If anything, Johnson will again hit for a high batting average and more power. His power was stifled in his attempt to hit for a higher average!'
I was dumbfounded.
But, in fantasy baseball, it's better to be dumbfounded than just dumb.
Johnson hit 60 points lower and had two less homers the following year.

So, what's the point of this post? I don't know.
Wait, maybe I do.
Luck happens every day. And it could happen to the same fellow almost every day.
Like Chris Johnson.
Or, it could be the bad luck of one play as it was for Brady, and Moss, and Puig.
Baseball statisticians, try as they might, will never quantify, luck.

One more thing. Look at this RotoWorld snipet...

'Brandon Maurer took his third loss after giving up two runs in a tie game Wednesday against the Brewers.
Maurer was BABIP'd to death in this one, and one of the hits -- actually the hardest hit of them -- should have been an error on shortstop Erick Aybar. Maurer has a 20/2 K/BB ratio in 16 innings this season, but because of the BABIP approaching .400, his ERA stands at 6.75. If the Padres want to pull him from the closer's role, then they'd most likely go to Brad Hand in the place. Really, though, Maurer is just as good of a bet as Hand going forward and it's not like the Padres have any real urgency to make switches in a rebuilding year. Maurer hasn't been as bad as his job as, say, Aybar or Jered Weaver.'

This guy HAS to own Maurer in at least one league, right?
He has probably followed Maurer all year and knows that Maurer's luck is running the opposite of Chris Johnson right now.
He uses BABIP to get his point across, knowing that will be more 'tangible' for fantasy players.

It makes me wonder if real baseball scouts and GM's factor in good luck and bad luck.
I've followed Maurer a bit this year and know that his luck is, indeed, running bad. BABIP, right in this case.
Would the Washington Nationals know this?
Or will they just go after a been there, done that-over priced reliever like David Robertson?
The Nationals could profit in buying low on a reliever down on his luck.
Bad luck is like a slump. No time frame. No fun.
But 93 per cent of time (I made that stat up), it ends.