If tired of it, you were forewarned!
I had a friend call me to debate my stance on 'Value'. He is in the NFBC and prefers not to have his name mentioned on these Boards.
His argument was that during the draft season, ADP was the only measure of 'value' that is available to us.
As you guessed, I went off.
If wanting to place 'value' in ADP, go for it. Be my guest. But, the 'value' is fools gold.
Back in the day, before ADP, 'value' was placed by the 'Baseball Forecaster'.
Then, it was placed by Mock Drafts.
Now ADP.
It's not real value. It is only a conglomeration of what we THINK is value. Mostly based on previous results.
ADP determined that Rougned Odor is a third round pick. If somebody drafted him in the fourth round, that drafter claimed 'value'.
In the meantime, any drafter who selected Aaron Judge in the twelth round was scoffed at and was thought to get no 'value at all.
You have to admit, if that is a 'value system, then our 'value system' sucks.
Let's face it, when drafting, we are trying to get the most we can from our picks.
ADP is a guide (not a value system) in where we can have a reasonable expectation in where to draft players.
If I thought that Rougned Odor would not repeat last years numbers and was available to me in the fourth or even fifth rounds, why draft him?
Simply because he is now, a 'value pick'?
Hell no.
That, that is being 'sheepish'.
We would be letting ADP make our choice for us. Not drafting from our own research that screams at us that Odor is really a seventh or eighth round choice by our own reckoning.
If continuing his hitting ways, Aaron Judge becomes a first round selection next year.
Missouri/Missouri will come into play for a lot of drafters, in that they will need to be shown TWICE that Judge can dominate again as he has this year.
Some will buy into Judge repeating this year and can't wait to take him as high as possible.
The result may place Judge in the middle of the first round by ADP.
If a draft occurs where many of the 15 drafters Missouri/Missouri Judge, he may fall into the second round and 'value' will be had by that drafter. Just like 'value' was supposedly had by any drafter who selected Manny Machado in the second round this year.
The 'value' is not real. It is just based on where value is misplaced during drafting season, ADP.
ADP placed Tyler Thornburg ahead of Aaron Judge for this year.
Kyle Barraclough too.
And Alcides Escobar.
If drafting Aron Judge before the 24th round, we were given a 'red' number for drafting him too early.
The red number indicating that we did not get 'value'.
It's a game that we play during the drafting season in how we can accumulate false values in relation to ADP.
Sometimes, this does not play out well for the real season.
One last thing...
ADP is based on Draft Champions leagues.
50 player rosters with no FAAB.
They are leagues that favor players with positionality and durability.
Yet, we shoehorn this ADP into drafting for 30 player leagues with FAAB in March.
Why?
Because it is the only ADP we have.
STATS is not capable of breaking down ADP by 50 or 30 team leagues, so we use what we have and put way too much credence in its source.
A guy like Danny Valencia will be picked (and was) before a flyer like Aaron Judge. It just made sense to those in no FAAB leagues to consider multi-positionality over rostering just another outfielder.
For Main Event teams, Valencia should not have the ADP standard that was given to him by DC's, yet there he is, supposedly with more 'value' than Aaron Judge on Main Event draft day.
Value, my ass.
In essence, we rate capabilities by our ADP.
We now know what Aaron Judge is capable of, so he moves near the top of the class.
Our recency bias will move Manny Machado and Rougned Odor down the ladder for next year.
We know that both are capable of good years, but we are a 'what have you done for me lately' type crowd of drafters.
Dallas Keuchel will soar because of both recency bias and Missouri/Missouri drafters.
Judge, Machado, Odor, and Keuchel will all settle into an ADP area and will be given a new round in which each will be expected to be drafted in.
This becomes their new 'value'.
And we start all over again.
Fooling ourselves into the thinking we are being pro-active in our picks, but only receiving 'value' through reactive cohorts.