The 'Would Be Herald'

[DOUGHBOYS]

When starting out playing fantasy baseball, so many years years ago, I felt the skill to luck ratio was clearly on skill's side.
It took skill to draft the right players.
It took skill to FAAB the right players.
It took skill to not only know who to pick up, but who to drop.
Then, there is the twice a week lineups in knowing who to start and who to bench.

We make these decisions with analytical minds.
Some decisions are seemingly made for us.
The hitter who has a two game schedule as compared to four games for a like hitter.
The Starter at home vs. the Phils vs a like Starter on the Road vs. the Nationals.
We make decisions like these without even thinking much.
And when the Starter gets blown up vs. the Phils, while the other Starter tames the Nats, we chalk it up as an anomaly.
Or luck.

We draft our first round players, knowing that without injury, these players will become the lynchpin ( I spell it that way because of old timer Jerry Lynch, who was a 'linchpin' of the Reds for a time) of your fantasy team.
This first rounder will stay in the lineup all year, through thick and thin.
And when a ball player from our roster plays better than our first rounder, and we've had that player benched, we chalk it up as an anomaly.
Or luck.

I remember a league that I won on the last day of the season.
To me, the league was won because I had one more Win than the second place finisher.
Earlier in the season, I had cussed out my Closer.
His stupid Manager called him into the game with a four run lead.
Which is exactly the amount of runs my Closer allowed.
His team scored a run in the bottom of the inning, giving him a W.
A W that would be the difference in me winning that league (yes, I factored in the ERA and WHIP categories).
That Closer helped me near the top of my league in Saves.
Yet, it was a bad performance by him that put me over the top.

Losing out on FAAB has been very, very good to me.
Many times I have received the second, third, or fourth player in a thread and he has offered up much more than the player I was out-bid on.
At the same time, I have dropped players who must have hated me or my team, because they played a lot better on others.

I wouldn't tell my Congressman or Senator, but I believe our game is more luck than skill.
Before going all 'Tim the Toolman' on me and saying that we play a man's game with man-sized skills, let me tell you why I feel this way, besides the items already listed.

First, I would love to see a paper published called the 'WOULD BE HERALD'
This paper would publish facts that would have been had it not been for decisions made.
For instance, we will read in RotoWorld that Josh Donaldson is 'simply getting a day of rest'.
The 'Would Be Herald' writes this...
'Josh Donaldson was 'rested' today, if he had not been rested, Donaldson would have had a career day in belting three homers and driving in nine runs'.
Without the 'Would Be Herald', we simply think of Donaldson as out of the lineup.
Never knowing we missed out on three homers and nine rbi.

The 'Would Be Herald' could tell us what would have happened WITHOUT' the penchant Managers have for lefty/righty matchups.
It could tell us what have happened had our hitter batted second instead of third one day.
Or what would have happened if our Starter had not been pushed back a day.
These things are never a thought to us now. All these things are considered fate, not luck.
The Would Be Herald would be a constant reminder into how much luck goes into our game.
It is massive.

We do our best with what we have.
We don't have a 'Would Be Herald'.
In a lot of ways, it is a good thing.
It would drive me crazy to KNOW that Donaldson's Manager cost my team three homers and nine rbi by simply resting him.
As Mike Ditka would have said, "HE CAN REST ON HIS OWN TIME!"
Having the Would Be Herald telling us that had our hitter not hit third but fourth a certain day, he would gone 5 for five with three homers and seven rbi would be hard to take.

We're not ready for the 'Would Be Herald'.
We want to maintain the idea that we are men of skill.
Playing a game with many skills required.
It takes skill to draft 30 players and ride a team to a league Championship.
We discount luck when thinking about the best players in our game.
We forget that while they were building skills, they were sweating luck.