A Tale of Two NFBC Games
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:11 am
We play two games in the NFBC.
We play the in-season game.
And we play the drafting season game.
Right now, we are in the midst of the in-season game.
The in-season game is, by far, the more important of the two games. We get paid for the in-season game.
The in-season incorporates the drafting season to establish a roster and gives us the construction and means to play the in-season game.
The in-season game develops and establishes what drafting season freaks crave most.
Value.
Although experts fling the V word around like it is fact, the fact is that there is zero value during drafting season.
What we have is, at most, 'expectancy value'.
ADP is the most referred to guide when it comes to expectancy value.
Due to unexpected injury and under, or even, over performance, ADP is seldom correct.
Here is the adp of the fifth round from last years drafts....
61 Polanco, Gregory
62 Carrasco, Carlos
63 Gonzalez, Carlos
64 Hendricks, Kyle
65 Seager, Kyle1
66 McCutchen, Andrew
67 Melancon, Mark
68 Carpenter, Matt
69 Oh, Seung Hwan
70 Trumbo, Mark
71 Diaz, Edwin
72 Desmond, Ian
73 Kimbrel, Craig
74 Schwarber, Kyle
75 Kinsler, Ian
We could make a case that none of these players are fifth round players.
McCutchen and Kimbrel have outplayed fifth round status.
Carrasco and possibly Kinsler could make a case for fifth round drafting,
Polanco, CarGo, Hendricks, Melancon, Oh, Trumbo, Desmond, and Schwarber have made the fifth round laughable.
Yet, if any of these players were drafted after the fifth round, their drafters screamed "VALUE!"
We all want the most for our draft pick. For some, it means 'beating ADP'. Taking a player that others have passed on in a draft that ADP supports as a player should not be passed on.
I liked Matt Carpenter to do well this year. I drafted him as high as the fourth round, as low as the sixth round.
His selection and round number was determined by who was picked in the first three rounds.
It turns out that ADP and I was wrong about Carpenter.
ADP likes sexy.
Ian Desmond playing at Coors.
Gregory Polanco with his tools.
Kyle Schwarber with his power.
All sexy.
But like a woman showing a lot of cleavage, we forget these players have deficiencies.
ADP has a way of overlooking deficiencies as we would a woman with big bosoms and a lacking personality.
ADP is not the largest culprit of draft season.
'Experts' are.
These fellows on radio, podcasts, and print treat the word 'value' as if it has substance.
It is 'expected value', but the word 'expected' si not invited to the party.
Saying 'value' makes them and the word sound more important.
These experts will take numbers, any numbers, and construe them to bolster any claims.
These numbers don't mean shit for in-season play however.
I don't give a rat's ass about Jake Lamb or Kyle Schwarbers 'exit velocities' or 'barrels' when I know that they are facing the Dodgers and three lefties.
The drafting season loves Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Danny Santana, and other pitchers who had injury struggles the previous year.
We forgive them.
We've seen them perform without injury and hope the injury bug does not hit them again.
Drafting season is about forgiveness.
In-season?
If a player is hurt for a long time, we dump his ass.
He doesn't do us any good at all.
We have seven bench spots, screw him!
We drafted Maikel Franco for his power.
And now, our favorite player on our roster is Rhys Hoskins (way to go, Bryan!).
A fellow that didn't even cost us a draft pick. Only a few fake dollars.
But, for some reason, we keep Franco.
Is it because we really think he'll turn it around?
Or is it really because like a team who pays Pablo Sandoval too much money, we are afraid to accept the fact that we were wrong on Franco?
In-season allows us to cover our mistakes.
I drafted Brandon Crawford. This past week I dropped him.
Being lucky enough to pick up Andrelton Simmons for fake dollars allowed me to do that.
Crawford was ok for rbi, but hurt me in the other categories.
When drafting, I thought more of Crawford.
That is expectancy value.
When the in-season showed his real value and fangs, it was time to say that I had made a mistake in my estimation of Crawford.
I love both games.
In-season keeps us involved in our thinking almost 24 hours a day.
Especially this time of year when every point is a plum if we're close to the top in standings.
We look at our own players and any other players on the field that can help us with points.
Fake money is no object when it comes to a player who can help us reach our goals.
Two-start pitchers seem to make or break us some weeks.
So do 'rests' for hitters.
And that will only get worse as teams like the Dodgers and other teams who clinch the playoffs early will afford them to rest their players liberally.
Ugh.
These thoughts are not on our mind during the drafting season.
It is then that we are unveiling our plans for fantasy domination!
Syndergaard? He won't get hurt again.
Neither will David Price.
They can't. We just drafted them.
Drafting season is without injury. Without under performance.
Drafting season is played out in our minds.
We never think in a negative way in planning for the trip.
It is when the journey begins that everything changes.
And that is the nature of our 'two games'.
We play the in-season game.
And we play the drafting season game.
Right now, we are in the midst of the in-season game.
The in-season game is, by far, the more important of the two games. We get paid for the in-season game.
The in-season incorporates the drafting season to establish a roster and gives us the construction and means to play the in-season game.
The in-season game develops and establishes what drafting season freaks crave most.
Value.
Although experts fling the V word around like it is fact, the fact is that there is zero value during drafting season.
What we have is, at most, 'expectancy value'.
ADP is the most referred to guide when it comes to expectancy value.
Due to unexpected injury and under, or even, over performance, ADP is seldom correct.
Here is the adp of the fifth round from last years drafts....
61 Polanco, Gregory
62 Carrasco, Carlos
63 Gonzalez, Carlos
64 Hendricks, Kyle
65 Seager, Kyle1
66 McCutchen, Andrew
67 Melancon, Mark
68 Carpenter, Matt
69 Oh, Seung Hwan
70 Trumbo, Mark
71 Diaz, Edwin
72 Desmond, Ian
73 Kimbrel, Craig
74 Schwarber, Kyle
75 Kinsler, Ian
We could make a case that none of these players are fifth round players.
McCutchen and Kimbrel have outplayed fifth round status.
Carrasco and possibly Kinsler could make a case for fifth round drafting,
Polanco, CarGo, Hendricks, Melancon, Oh, Trumbo, Desmond, and Schwarber have made the fifth round laughable.
Yet, if any of these players were drafted after the fifth round, their drafters screamed "VALUE!"
We all want the most for our draft pick. For some, it means 'beating ADP'. Taking a player that others have passed on in a draft that ADP supports as a player should not be passed on.
I liked Matt Carpenter to do well this year. I drafted him as high as the fourth round, as low as the sixth round.
His selection and round number was determined by who was picked in the first three rounds.
It turns out that ADP and I was wrong about Carpenter.
ADP likes sexy.
Ian Desmond playing at Coors.
Gregory Polanco with his tools.
Kyle Schwarber with his power.
All sexy.
But like a woman showing a lot of cleavage, we forget these players have deficiencies.
ADP has a way of overlooking deficiencies as we would a woman with big bosoms and a lacking personality.
ADP is not the largest culprit of draft season.
'Experts' are.
These fellows on radio, podcasts, and print treat the word 'value' as if it has substance.
It is 'expected value', but the word 'expected' si not invited to the party.
Saying 'value' makes them and the word sound more important.
These experts will take numbers, any numbers, and construe them to bolster any claims.
These numbers don't mean shit for in-season play however.
I don't give a rat's ass about Jake Lamb or Kyle Schwarbers 'exit velocities' or 'barrels' when I know that they are facing the Dodgers and three lefties.
The drafting season loves Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Danny Santana, and other pitchers who had injury struggles the previous year.
We forgive them.
We've seen them perform without injury and hope the injury bug does not hit them again.
Drafting season is about forgiveness.
In-season?
If a player is hurt for a long time, we dump his ass.
He doesn't do us any good at all.
We have seven bench spots, screw him!
We drafted Maikel Franco for his power.
And now, our favorite player on our roster is Rhys Hoskins (way to go, Bryan!).
A fellow that didn't even cost us a draft pick. Only a few fake dollars.
But, for some reason, we keep Franco.
Is it because we really think he'll turn it around?
Or is it really because like a team who pays Pablo Sandoval too much money, we are afraid to accept the fact that we were wrong on Franco?
In-season allows us to cover our mistakes.
I drafted Brandon Crawford. This past week I dropped him.
Being lucky enough to pick up Andrelton Simmons for fake dollars allowed me to do that.
Crawford was ok for rbi, but hurt me in the other categories.
When drafting, I thought more of Crawford.
That is expectancy value.
When the in-season showed his real value and fangs, it was time to say that I had made a mistake in my estimation of Crawford.
I love both games.
In-season keeps us involved in our thinking almost 24 hours a day.
Especially this time of year when every point is a plum if we're close to the top in standings.
We look at our own players and any other players on the field that can help us with points.
Fake money is no object when it comes to a player who can help us reach our goals.
Two-start pitchers seem to make or break us some weeks.
So do 'rests' for hitters.
And that will only get worse as teams like the Dodgers and other teams who clinch the playoffs early will afford them to rest their players liberally.
Ugh.
These thoughts are not on our mind during the drafting season.
It is then that we are unveiling our plans for fantasy domination!
Syndergaard? He won't get hurt again.
Neither will David Price.
They can't. We just drafted them.
Drafting season is without injury. Without under performance.
Drafting season is played out in our minds.
We never think in a negative way in planning for the trip.
It is when the journey begins that everything changes.
And that is the nature of our 'two games'.
