Sixth Round...Closing Time!

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Sixth Round...Closing Time!

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:27 am

The one thing I have noticed to be true in most DC drafts this year, is how the queue is conditioning drafters.
The queue is made up of our own ADP.
So, hardly a pick is made that doesn't fall far from the queue.
Here's an example...
I selected Christian Yelich at 3-12.
For this particular team, I wanted to make sure that I drafted Yelich.
A fellow in chat exclaimed that that was the earliest Yelich had ever been drafted.
I looked at ADP and he was right.
I didn't care.
But there was conversation about where Yelich would hit in the lineup along with how early the selection was made.
Full disclosure, Yelich was taken with the 42nd pick. The earliest he had been taken before that was 45th.

The attention paid to the Yelich pick illustrates how if we think outside the box, it is very noticeable.
In an earlier draft I selected Alex Bregman in the second round. I believe it was 18th Overall.
That also brought hoots and hollers, and it was the earliest anybody had selected Bregman.
I don't love Yelich or Bregman. They just fit better than other players for what I was trying to accomplish in those drafts.
In fact, this was my first ownership of Yelich.

My thought is that the queue is now ruling us, instead of us ruling the queue.
There is a sameness to most drafts this year.
Tell me if this isn't true for most of your drafts...
Roberto Osuna, Edwin Diaz, Felipe Rivero, Ken Giles, Wade Davis, Cody Allen, and Racial Iglesias are taken from the bottom of the fifth round to the top of the seventh round.
These names are at the top of the queue at that time in every draft.
Their ADP is grouped close(er)ly at 76-91.
We have already expired most hitters, Starters, and top Closers before these names dominate the top of the queue.

It signals to drafters that if they don't want to miss out on the second tier of Closers, you better grab one now.
I have passed on these Closers almost every draft.
I believe that the sixth round is too early for 60 innings and one category goodness.
But that is my choice and I know things will be different for the live drafts in March.

In March, we are not so prone to follow queue's.
The gloves come off.
If I really liked Yelich and thought he would return second round value or even first, I may even take him earlier than 42nd.
In March for the big drafts, these Closers will start spreading out as they should.
We will have a lot more information about each team's Closer.
Part of the reason, these Closer's are taken in a lump is because of the insecurity of lower round Closers.
That may be different in March.

ADP is a funny thing.
Last year, Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge was drafted in the 30-something and 40-something rounds.
Now, with the realization that they can indeed hit, they are both second round picks.
At the same time, Trea Turner loses both his 2B and OF eligibility, does not hit for near as much power as the year previous and hits 60 points under his batting average from the year before, and actually moves up in ADP from eighth overall to third or fourth.
Last year, Turner could be found in the second round of some drafts. Not this year.

I've probably drafted too many drafts.
The sameness in them leaves me with the same feeling as taking the same route to work every day.
Becoming routine.
I have to have a little pre-draft strategy to make the exercise pleasant.

I am reminded of a few years ago when Lindy was coming off big Wins in the Overall.
In an early draft in Las Vegas, he drafted 15th and took two players that were nowhere near 15th in ADP.
All of a sudden in following drafts, those two players had a new ADP and it was close to 15th.
Lindy broke ADP.
We don't want to admit it, but we are easily led sometimes by outside sources, such as ADP.
Makes us feel sheepish.
The next time approaching the sixth round of a DC Draft, look at the queue and smile.
The names will be very familiar.
When drafting, ask yourself, 'Are we making the queue or is the queue making us?"
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

headhunters
Posts: 1976
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 6:00 pm

Re: Sixth Round...Closing Time!

Post by headhunters » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:52 pm

funny you posted this after greg put up a draft showing yelich @ 3-2 or 32 pick so you are already behind the curve. btw- that kid in class was the best student. odds they were the smartest is very very low.

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Sixth Round...Closing Time!

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:12 pm

Just saw that.
Nobody is ahead or behind the curve this time of year.
We just pick and pray.
As for the students, some of best students I knew were very smart.
Some, not so.
I know what you mean though.
Look at politicians.
They can talk, write, and read better than most.
But when it comes time for a vote, all that knowledge is set aside.
They put down their many degrees, don their cheer leading outfits and vote however their party votes.
Rah Rah Rah
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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