We All Judge... Except Me...At Least For This Year

[DOUGHBOYS]

I have drafted several fantasy teams this year.
DC's, satelite, and auctions.
12 Teams.
No Aaron Judge.
Not on one team.
I like Aaron Judge and think he'll probably do well again this year.

I believe the problem for me is two-pronged.

First, with some players, I adhere to Missouri/Missouri.
For those that don't recall the term, Missouri/Missouri is taken from the 'show me' state of Missouri. Only for fantasy purposes, that player has to show us twice.
I believe in Judge's power. Who can't?
What I don't believe in is Judge being as consistent of hitter as last year. A tough thing to say because Judge was great, then terrible, then great again last year.
I do have a feeling that his 'terrible' will be more extended than his 'great' this coming year.

And second, he is being drafted at the bottom of the first round and top of the second. I love the choices around that part of the draft. Judge could very well out-homer every other hitter in that area, but I have high doubts about the other categories.
BUT, that is just my opinion and none of us are right or wrong till they start play.

That last sentence reminds me. In a media draft last night, Tom Kessenich stated that he found 'value' in getting Buster Posey a round after his normal adp.
Excusing the word, 'value', Tom fails to see that he is talking apples and oranges.
NFBC drafters are probably a little more savvy than media personnel.
The teachers have been passed by the students.
Tom compared getting 'value' from media members to getting 'value' from NFBC players.
Not the same at all.

Ok, so let's get back to Aaron Judge...
What Judge did last year was flat out amazing.
How amazing?
How about this...
90 players have hit 60 home runs or more in their first three Big League years.
Judge hit 52 last year, surpassing Mark McGwire's rookie record of 49 homers.
McGwire hit 84 his first three years.
(Note the drop off in McGwire's next two years. He had a tough time with pitchers figuring him out after his rookie year)
(Well that, or somebody stole his stash)

The record for most homers after three years of play is kind of cool.
It is shared by an active player and a player who initially set the record from 1946-48.
Albert Pujols and Ralph Kiner hit 114 homers their first three years.
Will Judge break their record?
He has a leg up on them, but I doubt it.
To tell the truth, better hitters than him have also had a great start to their careers and never broke the record.
Reggie Jackson, Giancarlo Stanton, Ted Williams, Joe Dimaggio, and others started like a house on fire in their careers, but pitchers adjusted to them, making it tougher on them.

Some current players have given the record a go.
Kris Bryant hit 94 homers from 2015-17 placing him eighth.
Stanton a notch below with 93.
Nolan Arenado hit 70 his first three years.
Goldy, 64.
Mike Trout, 62.
And Bryce Harper did not make the list of 60 homers hit the first three years with just 55.

The three year accumulations help temper my expectations of rookie ball players.
It is not easy to come out of the chute hitting home runs in the Major Leagues.
It may be even harder in continuing those homers over the next couple of years.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I've already had a couple of calls or texts about Judge.
Believe me, I know he has power. I know he hit 52 homers.
And I know that he is already almost half way to the record mark of homers after three years.
That said, NO Major Leaguer...let me repeat...NO Major League player has EVER averaged 40 homers their first three years.
We all fall victim to recency bias.
Two years ago, we would have laughed at the thought of Judge hitting 52 homers.
Now, we can't think of him NOT hitting 50 homers.
You know what though?
Shit happens.
Be it, injuries, under performance, or pitchers adjusting to hitters...Something.

Aaron Judge is Paul Bunyan.
We'd bet on Bunyan to fell any tree.
We'd bet on Judge to hit a baseball far.
The largest difference between Judge and Bunyan is in the swinging of their weapon.
Bunyan can swing at will.
The trees never conspired to make Paul Bunyan's job more difficult.

[NorCalAtlFan]

sandbagger. i'm onto you. i fully expect this on march 24th: "with pick 14, dan kenyon selects aaron judge, OF, yankees."

[headhunters]

followed by gary sanchez

[DOUGHBOYS]

I would and have picked Gary Sanchez over Judge.
Sanchez is one of many second round picks that almost make the round 1-A.
Freeman, Bellinger, Rizzo, JD Martinez, Bryant, and Jose Ramirez are all players in the second round that, frankly, I would draft before either Trea Turner or Aaron Judge.
And yes, I left Votto out of that group, but I would also draft him before Turner and Judge.

I don't 'hate Turner. I just don't see why he gets all the love.
I look at Turner as Dee Gordon with 10 more homers and possibly a few more rbi.
Gordon could beat him in three or four categories since Gordon is moving to a more friendly league for lead off men looking for rbi.
I have Turner in the same place before doing my preparation for the first draft of the year.
A top third rounder.
I have Judge around the same area.
It doesn't mean much other than I will not see Turner or Judge on my teams this year.