We All Judge... Except Me...At Least For This Year
Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:43 am
I have drafted several fantasy teams this year.
DC's, satelite, and auctions.
12 Teams.
No Aaron Judge.
Not on one team.
I like Aaron Judge and think he'll probably do well again this year.
I believe the problem for me is two-pronged.
First, with some players, I adhere to Missouri/Missouri.
For those that don't recall the term, Missouri/Missouri is taken from the 'show me' state of Missouri. Only for fantasy purposes, that player has to show us twice.
I believe in Judge's power. Who can't?
What I don't believe in is Judge being as consistent of hitter as last year. A tough thing to say because Judge was great, then terrible, then great again last year.
I do have a feeling that his 'terrible' will be more extended than his 'great' this coming year.
And second, he is being drafted at the bottom of the first round and top of the second. I love the choices around that part of the draft. Judge could very well out-homer every other hitter in that area, but I have high doubts about the other categories.
BUT, that is just my opinion and none of us are right or wrong till they start play.
That last sentence reminds me. In a media draft last night, Tom Kessenich stated that he found 'value' in getting Buster Posey a round after his normal adp.
Excusing the word, 'value', Tom fails to see that he is talking apples and oranges.
NFBC drafters are probably a little more savvy than media personnel.
The teachers have been passed by the students.
Tom compared getting 'value' from media members to getting 'value' from NFBC players.
Not the same at all.
Ok, so let's get back to Aaron Judge...
What Judge did last year was flat out amazing.
How amazing?
How about this...
90 players have hit 60 home runs or more in their first three Big League years.
Judge hit 52 last year, surpassing Mark McGwire's rookie record of 49 homers.
McGwire hit 84 his first three years.
(Note the drop off in McGwire's next two years. He had a tough time with pitchers figuring him out after his rookie year)
(Well that, or somebody stole his stash)
The record for most homers after three years of play is kind of cool.
It is shared by an active player and a player who initially set the record from 1946-48.
Albert Pujols and Ralph Kiner hit 114 homers their first three years.
Will Judge break their record?
He has a leg up on them, but I doubt it.
To tell the truth, better hitters than him have also had a great start to their careers and never broke the record.
Reggie Jackson, Giancarlo Stanton, Ted Williams, Joe Dimaggio, and others started like a house on fire in their careers, but pitchers adjusted to them, making it tougher on them.
Some current players have given the record a go.
Kris Bryant hit 94 homers from 2015-17 placing him eighth.
Stanton a notch below with 93.
Nolan Arenado hit 70 his first three years.
Goldy, 64.
Mike Trout, 62.
And Bryce Harper did not make the list of 60 homers hit the first three years with just 55.
The three year accumulations help temper my expectations of rookie ball players.
It is not easy to come out of the chute hitting home runs in the Major Leagues.
It may be even harder in continuing those homers over the next couple of years.
DC's, satelite, and auctions.
12 Teams.
No Aaron Judge.
Not on one team.
I like Aaron Judge and think he'll probably do well again this year.
I believe the problem for me is two-pronged.
First, with some players, I adhere to Missouri/Missouri.
For those that don't recall the term, Missouri/Missouri is taken from the 'show me' state of Missouri. Only for fantasy purposes, that player has to show us twice.
I believe in Judge's power. Who can't?
What I don't believe in is Judge being as consistent of hitter as last year. A tough thing to say because Judge was great, then terrible, then great again last year.
I do have a feeling that his 'terrible' will be more extended than his 'great' this coming year.
And second, he is being drafted at the bottom of the first round and top of the second. I love the choices around that part of the draft. Judge could very well out-homer every other hitter in that area, but I have high doubts about the other categories.
BUT, that is just my opinion and none of us are right or wrong till they start play.
That last sentence reminds me. In a media draft last night, Tom Kessenich stated that he found 'value' in getting Buster Posey a round after his normal adp.
Excusing the word, 'value', Tom fails to see that he is talking apples and oranges.
NFBC drafters are probably a little more savvy than media personnel.
The teachers have been passed by the students.
Tom compared getting 'value' from media members to getting 'value' from NFBC players.
Not the same at all.
Ok, so let's get back to Aaron Judge...
What Judge did last year was flat out amazing.
How amazing?
How about this...
90 players have hit 60 home runs or more in their first three Big League years.
Judge hit 52 last year, surpassing Mark McGwire's rookie record of 49 homers.
McGwire hit 84 his first three years.
(Note the drop off in McGwire's next two years. He had a tough time with pitchers figuring him out after his rookie year)
(Well that, or somebody stole his stash)
The record for most homers after three years of play is kind of cool.
It is shared by an active player and a player who initially set the record from 1946-48.
Albert Pujols and Ralph Kiner hit 114 homers their first three years.
Will Judge break their record?
He has a leg up on them, but I doubt it.
To tell the truth, better hitters than him have also had a great start to their careers and never broke the record.
Reggie Jackson, Giancarlo Stanton, Ted Williams, Joe Dimaggio, and others started like a house on fire in their careers, but pitchers adjusted to them, making it tougher on them.
Some current players have given the record a go.
Kris Bryant hit 94 homers from 2015-17 placing him eighth.
Stanton a notch below with 93.
Nolan Arenado hit 70 his first three years.
Goldy, 64.
Mike Trout, 62.
And Bryce Harper did not make the list of 60 homers hit the first three years with just 55.
The three year accumulations help temper my expectations of rookie ball players.
It is not easy to come out of the chute hitting home runs in the Major Leagues.
It may be even harder in continuing those homers over the next couple of years.