The End of Playing, the Beginning of Drafting
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:36 am
I am getting ready to draft in the Pre-Mature E-Draftulation League.
We get different feelings about players for this league that we don't get with any other draft.
It is because the players that we are studying are still playing. When drafting for other drafts, these players become just a big gob of numbers.
The point being that we see things from a much different perspective.
Looking at my current roster for the Main Event, something struck me. The vast amount of offensive players that I had rostered during the year.
48 offensive players!
Some were used for specific categories like Rajai Davis.
Some to catch a hot streak like Kendrys Morales.
Some weren't used at all like Byron Buxton.
It made me chuckle when thinking about folks who draft a team, then put numbers or expectations on those drafted as if they're going to be healthy or good all year long.
This thought made me look at how many offensive players of my 48 have I played without benching.
TWO!
Alex Bregman and Whit Merrifield.
The season long game is one of skill and luck. It is also a game of attrition.
The attrition can be tied to both luck and skill.
When drafting Troy Tulowitzki over the last 10 years, we know that the chances of injury are high. We hope for luck in health when drafting him.
There really is no skill in drafting him. His name looks larger than life next to lesser known players, so some take a shot that he'll somehow remain on the field.
The attrition in baseball, in my eyes, is half luck based, half skill based.
An example...
In my eyes, Ronald Acuna Jr. is going to be selected damned high in drafts for this coming year.
Major League Baseball looks like child's play to Acuna.
But, it won't be me drafting him. In watching Acuna, he still has the youthful exuberance in diving for balls, awkwardly, and crashing into fences.
I do not believe that he has a chance in Hell of being in my lineup every day. None.
He will get hurt. The question is for how long.
If minor, his injury will not hamper being a first round pick.
If major, I have lost my base pick for my team and it will make it very difficult in winning that league.
And that is the skill/luck in drafting a player like Acuna.
I have almost quit playing fantasy football (2 teams) because of attrition.
Injuries are almost all luck-based in that sport.
There is no way, from year to year, to guess who will be hurt and who will not.
The replacement factor in football, opposed to baseball is laughable as well.
Seldom does a backup quarterback match a starters stats in fantasy football. But, we are forced to table scraps when a starting quarterback goes down.
One of my favorite players on my Main Event team has been Franmil Reyes.
Have you ever been right on a player with most lineups when determining whether to start or bench him?
Reyes has been gold for me. Hitting over .300 when starting him.
He hits when I put him in the lineup. He sucks when I don't like his matchup.
Why can't every player be like that?
I also like Reyes so that I can thumb my nose at 'experts'.
Here is a Rotoblurb from early August....
'Padres recalled OF Franmil Reyes from Triple-A El Paso.
Reyes was just optioned back to Triple-A on Sunday, but he'll return with Wil Myers heading to the disabled list. He's hitting just .221/.270/.423 with six homers, eight RBI and a 42/7 K/BB ratio in his first 111 plate appearances at the big league level and can be ignored for fantasy purposes.'
How smart does this expert look now?
Getting back to the upcoming draft, I have made some drastic changes to who I think will go in the first round.
Partly because of Acuna.
I believe he will be drafted in the first round of most drafts.
And like Trea Turner (I still don't understand the #4 ADP) last year, it won't be me taking him so high.
Anyway, here is who I think will go in the first round in no certain order.
Mike Trout
Jose Altuve
Max Scherzer
Mookie Betts
JD Martinez
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Jake deGrom
Paul Goldschmidt
Nolan Arenado
Jose Ramirez
Francisco Lindor
Manny Machado
Bryce Harper
Chris Sale
Javy Baez
Machado and Harper will pick up steam as more and more is said about where they will sign for the coming year.
If, indeed, this is the top 15 in ADP for the coming year, it kicks out six players who were top 15 last year.
Trea Turner, Giancarlo Stanton, Charlie Blackmon, Corey Kluber, Carlos Correa, and Kris Bryant.
What are your thoughts?
How far off am I?
Let me know....
We get different feelings about players for this league that we don't get with any other draft.
It is because the players that we are studying are still playing. When drafting for other drafts, these players become just a big gob of numbers.
The point being that we see things from a much different perspective.
Looking at my current roster for the Main Event, something struck me. The vast amount of offensive players that I had rostered during the year.
48 offensive players!
Some were used for specific categories like Rajai Davis.
Some to catch a hot streak like Kendrys Morales.
Some weren't used at all like Byron Buxton.
It made me chuckle when thinking about folks who draft a team, then put numbers or expectations on those drafted as if they're going to be healthy or good all year long.
This thought made me look at how many offensive players of my 48 have I played without benching.
TWO!
Alex Bregman and Whit Merrifield.
The season long game is one of skill and luck. It is also a game of attrition.
The attrition can be tied to both luck and skill.
When drafting Troy Tulowitzki over the last 10 years, we know that the chances of injury are high. We hope for luck in health when drafting him.
There really is no skill in drafting him. His name looks larger than life next to lesser known players, so some take a shot that he'll somehow remain on the field.
The attrition in baseball, in my eyes, is half luck based, half skill based.
An example...
In my eyes, Ronald Acuna Jr. is going to be selected damned high in drafts for this coming year.
Major League Baseball looks like child's play to Acuna.
But, it won't be me drafting him. In watching Acuna, he still has the youthful exuberance in diving for balls, awkwardly, and crashing into fences.
I do not believe that he has a chance in Hell of being in my lineup every day. None.
He will get hurt. The question is for how long.
If minor, his injury will not hamper being a first round pick.
If major, I have lost my base pick for my team and it will make it very difficult in winning that league.
And that is the skill/luck in drafting a player like Acuna.
I have almost quit playing fantasy football (2 teams) because of attrition.
Injuries are almost all luck-based in that sport.
There is no way, from year to year, to guess who will be hurt and who will not.
The replacement factor in football, opposed to baseball is laughable as well.
Seldom does a backup quarterback match a starters stats in fantasy football. But, we are forced to table scraps when a starting quarterback goes down.
One of my favorite players on my Main Event team has been Franmil Reyes.
Have you ever been right on a player with most lineups when determining whether to start or bench him?
Reyes has been gold for me. Hitting over .300 when starting him.
He hits when I put him in the lineup. He sucks when I don't like his matchup.
Why can't every player be like that?
I also like Reyes so that I can thumb my nose at 'experts'.
Here is a Rotoblurb from early August....
'Padres recalled OF Franmil Reyes from Triple-A El Paso.
Reyes was just optioned back to Triple-A on Sunday, but he'll return with Wil Myers heading to the disabled list. He's hitting just .221/.270/.423 with six homers, eight RBI and a 42/7 K/BB ratio in his first 111 plate appearances at the big league level and can be ignored for fantasy purposes.'
How smart does this expert look now?
Getting back to the upcoming draft, I have made some drastic changes to who I think will go in the first round.
Partly because of Acuna.
I believe he will be drafted in the first round of most drafts.
And like Trea Turner (I still don't understand the #4 ADP) last year, it won't be me taking him so high.
Anyway, here is who I think will go in the first round in no certain order.
Mike Trout
Jose Altuve
Max Scherzer
Mookie Betts
JD Martinez
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Jake deGrom
Paul Goldschmidt
Nolan Arenado
Jose Ramirez
Francisco Lindor
Manny Machado
Bryce Harper
Chris Sale
Javy Baez
Machado and Harper will pick up steam as more and more is said about where they will sign for the coming year.
If, indeed, this is the top 15 in ADP for the coming year, it kicks out six players who were top 15 last year.
Trea Turner, Giancarlo Stanton, Charlie Blackmon, Corey Kluber, Carlos Correa, and Kris Bryant.
What are your thoughts?
How far off am I?
Let me know....