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I'm drafting in a DC. We're in the 14th round and Rich Hill is still available. I just passed him up (again).
I don't trust Rich Hill.
Rich Hill is the deadbeat family member who asks for money. He says he'll re-pay it.
You know better.
You know that whatever comes out of your wallet, will never go back in.
Rich Hill last threw 150 innings in...wait for it...2007!
He's 39.
Jack Benny always answered "39" when asked his age.
Let Benny draft Hill.
Yeah, Benny Hill reference.

James Paxton shares commonalities with Rich Hill.
Paxton is left handed. So is Hill.
Paxton strikes out more than a batter an inning. So does Hill.
And yes, like Hill, Paxton has thrown over 150 innings one time.
Drafters forgive that.
We suffer from recency virus.
The writers call it recency bias, but it effects everybody.
If something effects everybody, it's not bias.
It's like saying I'm biased in preferring the sky being overhead.

Anyway, Paxton is forgiven for only throwing 150 innings once because he did it last year.
FIFTH ROUND!
Then traded to the Yankees...
FOURTH ROUND!
Recency virus has made drafters forget that Paxton averages less than 100 innings per season.
I don't flat-out distrust Paxton. He's not the deadbeat asking for money.
Instead, he is the fellow asking you to overbid for an item at a silent auction because the money goes to charity.
Fourth round?
What kind of price point is that?
We're not a charity.
On Cyber Monday of all days, it just seemed like a bad deal.

One more.
And this pitcher, too, is a lefty.
Jon Lester.
Lester has become a non-favorite the past two years.
Falling from a fourth or fifth round choice to now, like Rich Hill, available in double digit rounds.
Lester does not make his owners feel screwed by being injured.
Lester just suffers from getting older.
He strikes out less batters. Is less dominant.
Drafters don't like less dominant.
While Hill and Paxton can boast still striking out over a batter an inning, Lester cannot.
In fact, Paxton struck out 50 more batters than Lester in 20 less innings.
While some may think that the words 'Strike outs' was the key word to that less sentence, the word 'Innings' was the Star.
Paxton is good, but he has never struck out a batter from the spa in the locker room.
Lester has earned the terms 'Innings eater' and 'serviceable'.
But we'll take serviceable over injured every time during the season.

There you have it.
Three lefties.
One, old but dominant.
Two, injured but dominant.
Three, serviceable, but not dominant.
Each making us feel a little uneasy.
Another reason for our love/hate relationship with drafting.

Let me add one more lefty that is in the Lester mode.
Dallas Keuchel.
Keuchel is losing in pitching for a great team.
As a free agent, we're a little scared that he'll sign with a Blue Jays, Pirates, Rockies type team.
You know, a place where it's normal that pitchers get torched.
A place where Wins are few and far between.
Keuchel was a Cy Young winner just a couple of years ago.A Gold Glove winner.
NFBC Drafters don't speak 'Award'.
That is for the MLB Network to crow about.
Keuchel is a lingerer.
Lingering around the ninth or tenth round, taken by drafters hoping that he signs with a Padres or Giants type of ball park.
Or a team like the Cubs or Dodgers where he can get some cheap Wins.
Notice how I stayed away from A.L. teams?
Keuchel's ERA would have been 3.30 last year, had he not faced A.L. East teams.
Depending on where this Fourth Sawpawteer signs, he could rise to a sixth round pick or fall to a 12th round pick.

Just one more point...

James Paxton will be used by his drafters EVERY game he pitches.
It is how we use our top picks.
When we get down to our lesser pitchers, we pick and choose their games.
We hate a lesser pitcher going into Yankee Stadium or Fenway in most instances.

A lot of drafters make the mistake of using yearly stats as a Bible.
Our goal is to have better stats on our fantasy team than a lesser pitcher has during the regular season.
Let's take Lester.
Lester has 32 starts during the regular season.
25 or 26 on our team possibly.
Lester is better than his yearly stats.
Some are looking at his lesser strike outs.
Don't!
Over the last three years, Lester has an ERA of below 3.50 against NL Central opponents. He also struck out eight batters every nine innings within division.
And maybe more importantly, Joe Maddon has been wise with his starts.
Lester has over 70 innings against CIN, STL, and PIT over the last three years.
Just 22 innings vs. Milwaukee.
That's right.
While Lester has started against other Central teams, 12, 13, or 14 times, he's faced Milwaukee just four times in three years.
He's faced the Dodgers six times to put that in perspective.

That said, Lester will drive you crazy.
He seems uninterested in beating lesser teams out of division.
He gets ripped out of nowhere. We hate that.
Against Tampa, he has allowed 13 earned runs in nine innings in two starts.
He does not pitch well against San Diego or Miami, but in six starts against the Dodgers, they are batting .206 vs. Lester.
Lester is a chess match to own during the season. Pitch him against rival Central teams.
Reverse thought of most pitchers and throw him against hard-hitting teams.
It's a tough thing to do.
As said, we are trying to get the most out of each player drafted.
Their yearly stats are entertainment or information until drafted.
After that, it is all up to us to make the best out of NEXT years stats.

I'm enjoying your posts, Dough, as always. This one caught my eye because I don't think I have ever drafted Hill, Paxton or Lester for the reasons you mentioned. That changed, however, when I took Lester in my first DC for the upcoming season. I took him when looking for a starting pitcher in the 11th round (Keuchel went in round 12 and Hill in round 13), and of course Paxton had gone much earlier (in round 5) even before becoming a Yankee. Time will tell which, if any, of these Southpawteers proves worthy of being drafted in those positions this year, and how crazy Lester will drive me this coming season. I only wish it was April (I'd settle for March) already! Marc

GREAT hearing from you, Marc!
My favorite word this drafting season is 'Trust'.
In past years, I've 'liked' players, so I'd be more apt to draft those players.
I plain do not trust Hill.
I trust Paxton very little and at that price, not at all really.
The move up because he is pitching for the Yankees makes me laugh.
His talent has never been the question, his health has.
Will he be any healthier with the Yankees? I'll Missouri/Missouri that.
Keuchel and Lester are different.
I trust them more than in past years.
You're right. Lester will drive you crazy. He is going to have a 2/7 game against a poor team.
BUT, we'll take the innings and Wins he provides.